We’re debating and haggling about defenses right now, trying to settle on a 1 thru 32. We try and set the right number for each category – fumbles, interceptions, sacks, touchdowns, special teams – and then see what those forecasts give us back in terms of team rankings.
As part of this, I’ve compiled Strength of Schedule numbers. Not for wins and losses, but for how many turnovers and sacks tend to be associated with each team.
For this endeavor, I didn’t use 2016 numbers. Instead, I used what I think would happen to an offense if it played a typical schedule. That way we get away from over-rewarding or over-punishing teams for stuff that has no real connection to what’s going to happen in 2017. Tennessee, for example, allowed 8 TDs on returns last year, but I see that as a pretty average offense in that regard.
The NFL averages for each of the four categories are 2.4 TDs (on returns of kicks and takeaways), 8.9 fumbles, 13 interceptions and 35 sacks. So for starters, everybody starts pretty close to those figures. Then, if I was pretty sure an offense will allow more or less, I moved the numbers up or down. Tom Brady, for example, threw only 2 interceptions last year, so 13 interceptions is way too high for the Patriots.
Most of the numbers are pretty vanilla. I didn’t want to stray too far away from average on some of these categories – I didn’t move any offense further than 1 away for average on fumbles, for example. In that category, I’ve got the expected butter-finger offenses at 10 fumbles, and the most sure-handed groups at 8.
After working through all the categories, the Bears, Rams, Jets, Browns, Bengals, Colts and Cardinals project to have the most fantasy-friendly offenses. These are the teams (I think) you want your defenses playing against. You may be surprised to see the Bengals in there, but they lost their two best offensive linemen, and that might help cause Andy Dalton to be harried into taking more sacks and serving up more turnovers – we’re not looking at 2016 but 2017.
Offenses you want to avoid: Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys, Packers and Falcons.
| PROJECTED FRIENDLIEST OPPOSING OFFENSES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TD | Fum | Int | Sack | Points |
| Chicago | 3.4 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 45 | 123.4 |
| LA Rams | 3.3 | 9.6 | 17.0 | 45 | 118.0 |
| NY Jets | 3.3 | 9.8 | 18.5 | 40 | 116.4 |
| Cleveland | 3.2 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 42 | 110.2 |
| Cincinnati | 3.0 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 43 | 108.8 |
| Indianapolis | 2.8 | 9.3 | 15.5 | 42 | 108.4 |
| Arizona | 2.9 | 9.7 | 16.0 | 39 | 107.8 |
| Houston | 3.0 | 9.2 | 15.5 | 38 | 105.4 |
| Denver | 2.7 | 9.5 | 15.0 | 40 | 105.2 |
| San Francisco | 2.6 | 9.8 | 15.0 | 40 | 105.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 2.5 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 37 | 104.0 |
| Carolina | 2.6 | 9.3 | 16.0 | 34 | 100.2 |
| Jacksonville | 2.5 | 9.3 | 15.5 | 35 | 99.6 |
| Philadelphia | 2.3 | 9.0 | 14.5 | 36 | 96.8 |
| Miami | 2.3 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 34 | 93.8 |
| LA Chargers | 2.5 | 9.3 | 14.0 | 32 | 93.6 |
| Baltimore | 2.2 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 33 | 90.2 |
| Seattle | 1.8 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 43 | 89.8 |
| Tennessee | 3.0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 30 | 89.0 |
| New Orleans | 2.4 | 8.8 | 13.0 | 29 | 87.0 |
| NY Giants | 2.2 | 9.2 | 15.0 | 25 | 86.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 2.6 | 8.0 | 15.5 | 24 | 86.6 |
| Detroit | 2.1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 35 | 85.6 |
| Minnesota | 2.2 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 37 | 85.0 |
| Buffalo | 1.8 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 43 | 83.8 |
| Washington | 2.4 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 26 | 83.4 |
| Kansas City | 1.6 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 35 | 80.2 |
| Atlanta | 1.9 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 33 | 78.4 |
| Green Bay | 1.5 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 35 | 75.0 |
| Dallas | 1.5 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 30 | 70.0 |
| Oakland | 1.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 24 | 64.6 |
| New England | 1.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 26 | 62.4 |
As the final step, I then took those offensive/allowed numbers and plugged them into the schedule, revealing a rough idea of the juiciness factor for each team’s 16 games.
A couple of AFC South teams come out on top, and I find that interesting, since we have been debating the merits of both the Jaguars and the Titans. Jacksonville signed Malik Jackson last year, and now has added Calais Campbell, and that’s quite a pair of defensive tackles. Reminds me of when that franchise had Marcus Stroud and John Henderson clogging up the middle. They signed A.J. Bouye. They drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack last year. To me, that looks like a group on the rise, and this strength of schedule bonus has me interested in them as a late-round option.
Tennessee also seems to be on the rise. They’ve got the pass rush in place. Now they just need to start making more plays – more interceptions and fumbles. They are always among the worst at creating fumbles, and I don’t understand that. They signed Johnathan Cyprien and Logan Ryan, which might help (though those guys have intercepted only 15 passes in the last four years). But their first-rounder, Adoree Jackson, might be dynamic. He scored 8 TDs on punt and kickoff returns at Southern Cal, so he’s a guy who’s proven he can get it to the end zone when the ball is in his hands. Titans haven’t scored on a kick return in the last five years, but Jackson should change that. Titans also worthy of selecting in the last round of a draft, I think.
At the other end of the scale, Kansas City, Denver and San Diego all have defenses that will be in everyone’s top 10, but the schedules aren’t favorable. All must play the Raiders twice, for example, and Derek Carr doesn’t take sacks or throw many interceptions.
| FAVORABLE SCHEDULES FOR DEFENSES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TD | Fum | Int | Sack | Points |
| Jacksonville | 2.8 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 37.6 | 102.0 |
| Tennessee | 2.6 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 37.3 | 100.1 |
| San Francisco | 2.6 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 37.2 | 99.6 |
| Indianapolis | 2.7 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 37.4 | 99.6 |
| Arizona | 2.5 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 36.9 | 97.2 |
| Seattle | 2.5 | 9.2 | 13.7 | 36.1 | 97.2 |
| Houston | 2.6 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 36.5 | 97.1 |
| Cleveland | 2.6 | 9.0 | 13.8 | 35.6 | 97.0 |
| Baltimore | 2.6 | 9.1 | 13.3 | 35.8 | 96.3 |
| Minnesota | 2.5 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 36.0 | 95.9 |
| Cincinnati | 2.6 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 36.1 | 95.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 2.5 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 37.1 | 95.8 |
| Detroit | 2.5 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 35.8 | 95.4 |
| LA Rams | 2.4 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 35.8 | 94.8 |
| Green Bay | 2.4 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 36.4 | 94.6 |
| New England | 2.4 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 35.0 | 93.3 |
| New Orleans | 2.4 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 35.9 | 93.3 |
| Buffalo | 2.4 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 34.3 | 92.2 |
| Philadelphia | 2.3 | 9.1 | 12.9 | 33.7 | 91.8 |
| Atlanta | 2.3 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 35.5 | 91.7 |
| Carolina | 2.3 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 35.6 | 91.6 |
| Chicago | 2.3 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 35.3 | 91.2 |
| NY Giants | 2.3 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 34.6 | 90.9 |
| Dallas | 2.3 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 33.8 | 90.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 2.3 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 34.4 | 90.7 |
| Washington | 2.2 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 34.1 | 90.2 |
| Oakland | 2.3 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 33.6 | 89.4 |
| Miami | 2.3 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 34.1 | 88.6 |
| Kansas City | 2.3 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 32.1 | 88.3 |
| LA Chargers | 2.2 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 33.4 | 87.7 |
| NY Jets | 2.2 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 34.2 | 87.7 |
| Denver | 2.2 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 32.9 | 86.7 |
—Ian Allan