Carolina, Minnesota and Seattle project to see the weakest defenses this year. That’s what the schedule data tells us, anyway. The Panthers’ 16 opponents allowed an average of 24 points per game last year.
The Vikings and Seahawks aren’t far behind, but this is all based on what teams did last year. Some – many – of those defenses no doubt will be better and worse. Some of the punching bag defenses no doubt will be a lot better, while some of the seemingly stronger ones will tail off.
The 49ers, for example, had a historically bad run defense last year. With a new system, and those two first-rounders added into the mix (Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster), they could get a lot better in a hurry. Foster’s got a shoulder issue, but if he’s healthy, he looks like he’ll be another Patrick Willis or Luke Kuechly – fast, aggressive heat-seeking missile who’s all over the field.
Anywho, I have taken the eight easiest schedules and imbedded them with the 50 easiest schedules of the last 10 years. Shown are the 2008-2017 seasons, and I’m showing all teams projecting to play opponents allowing over 23.3 points per game.
Then I’ve also included how the schedule actually played out.
Of the 50 schedules, 11 actually ended up being really easy – one of the five easiest in the league that year (in the chart, I’ve got them flagged with double black dots – ••). Another 11 ended up at least being in the top 10 (one black dot for those teams – •).
Having picked the nice even number of 50 schedules, that’s 44 percent of the schedules ended up being top-10 schedules.
But 11 of the 50 schedules ended up being bottom-10 schedules. In those cases, you actually would have gone in reverse, undermining your team by choosing from those franchises. And the remaining 17 were schedule neutral (neither in the top 10 nor the bottom 10).
In a ballpark sense, when you try to key on a team (like Carolina, Minnesota or Seattle) with a really easy schedule, it works about one out of every three or four times.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Points) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Points | Actual | Rnk |
2014 | Indianapolis | 24.8 | 22.8 | 15 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 22.9 | 17 |
2014 | •• Detroit | 24.6 | 23.5 | 4 |
2014 | Miami | 24.6 | 21.6 | 29 |
2014 | •• Houston | 24.5 | 24.0 | 1 |
2012 | •• Atlanta | 24.4 | 24.4 | 1 |
2014 | • Minnesota | 24.3 | 23.4 | 7 |
2014 | • Tennessee | 24.3 | 23.1 | 10 |
2014 | Buffalo | 24.3 | 22.2 | 22 |
2015 | Carolina | 24.3 | 23.3 | 12 |
2015 | •• Atlanta | 24.3 | 24.0 | 4 |
2014 | NY Giants | 24.2 | 22.8 | 13 |
2016 | Dallas | 24.1 | 22.0 | 26 |
2013 | Denver | 24.0 | 23.2 | 16 |
2014 | NY Jets | 24.0 | 22.2 | 23 |
2017 | Carolina | 24.0 | ? | ? |
2014 | New England | 23.9 | 21.8 | 28 |
2012 | New Orleans | 23.9 | 22.1 | 26 |
2017 | Minnesota | 23.9 | ? | ? |
2014 | Green Bay | 23.9 | 22.1 | 26 |
2009 | •• Seattle | 23.8 | 23.6 | 3 |
2015 | • Washington | 23.8 | 23.3 | 10 |
2015 | • New Orleans | 23.8 | 23.6 | 6 |
2014 | Chicago | 23.8 | 22.2 | 24 |
2014 | •• Jacksonville | 23.8 | 23.5 | 5 |
2014 | • Carolina | 23.8 | 23.3 | 8 |
2015 | •• Dallas | 23.7 | 24.0 | 3 |
2016 | Minnesota | 23.7 | 23.0 | 12 |
2012 | • Tampa Bay | 23.7 | 23.3 | 9 |
2016 | Chicago | 23.7 | 22.8 | 15 |
2017 | Seattle | 23.7 | ? | ? |
2016 | Detroit | 23.7 | 22.9 | 14 |
2015 | • Houston | 23.7 | 23.3 | 8 |
2015 | NY Giants | 23.7 | 22.9 | 16 |
2014 | •• Dallas | 23.6 | 23.5 | 3 |
2009 | San Francisco | 23.6 | 19.3 | 31 |
2014 | Washington | 23.6 | 23.0 | 11 |
2014 | New Orleans | 23.6 | 22.7 | 16 |
2014 | Philadelphia | 23.6 | 22.5 | 17 |
2017 | Tampa Bay | 23.6 | ? | ? |
2015 | Indianapolis | 23.6 | 23.2 | 13 |
2016 | Green Bay | 23.6 | 21.7 | 29 |
2017 | New England | 23.6 | ? | ? |
2016 | NY Giants | 23.5 | 22.7 | 20 |
2013 | • Dallas | 23.5 | 24.9 | 7 |
2014 | •• Tampa Bay | 23.5 | 23.8 | 2 |
2012 | Carolina | 23.4 | 23.0 | 12 |
2013 | •• Kansas City | 23.4 | 25.1 | 5 |
2017 | New Orleans | 23.4 | ? | ? |
2012 | • Kansas City | 23.4 | 23.5 | 6 |
2013 | • San Diego | 23.4 | 24.3 | 10 |
2009 | Arizona | 23.3 | 20.3 | 29 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 23.3 | ? | ? |
2015 | • Tennessee | 23.3 | 23.3 | 9 |
2016 | Washington | 23.3 | 21.2 | 32 |
2011 | Washington | 23.3 | 22.9 | 12 |
2015 | •• New England | 23.3 | 23.9 | 5 |
2017 | Chicago | 23.3 | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan