Carolina, Minnesota and Seattle project to see the weakest defenses this year. That’s what the schedule data tells us, anyway. The Panthers’ 16 opponents allowed an average of 24 points per game last year.

The Vikings and Seahawks aren’t far behind, but this is all based on what teams did last year. Some – many – of those defenses no doubt will be better and worse. Some of the punching bag defenses no doubt will be a lot better, while some of the seemingly stronger ones will tail off.

The 49ers, for example, had a historically bad run defense last year. With a new system, and those two first-rounders added into the mix (Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster), they could get a lot better in a hurry. Foster’s got a shoulder issue, but if he’s healthy, he looks like he’ll be another Patrick Willis or Luke Kuechly – fast, aggressive heat-seeking missile who’s all over the field.

Anywho, I have taken the eight easiest schedules and imbedded them with the 50 easiest schedules of the last 10 years. Shown are the 2008-2017 seasons, and I’m showing all teams projecting to play opponents allowing over 23.3 points per game.

Then I’ve also included how the schedule actually played out.

Of the 50 schedules, 11 actually ended up being really easy – one of the five easiest in the league that year (in the chart, I’ve got them flagged with double black dots – ••). Another 11 ended up at least being in the top 10 (one black dot for those teams – •).

Having picked the nice even number of 50 schedules, that’s 44 percent of the schedules ended up being top-10 schedules.

But 11 of the 50 schedules ended up being bottom-10 schedules. In those cases, you actually would have gone in reverse, undermining your team by choosing from those franchises. And the remaining 17 were schedule neutral (neither in the top 10 nor the bottom 10).

In a ballpark sense, when you try to key on a team (like Carolina, Minnesota or Seattle) with a really easy schedule, it works about one out of every three or four times.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Points)
YearTeamPointsActualRnk
2014Indianapolis24.822.815
2015Tampa Bay24.822.917
2014•• Detroit24.623.54
2014Miami24.621.629
2014•• Houston24.524.01
2012•• Atlanta24.424.41
2014• Minnesota24.323.47
2014• Tennessee24.323.110
2014Buffalo24.322.222
2015Carolina24.323.312
2015•• Atlanta24.324.04
2014NY Giants24.222.813
2016Dallas24.122.026
2013Denver24.023.216
2014NY Jets24.022.223
2017Carolina24.0??
2014New England23.921.828
2012New Orleans23.922.126
2017Minnesota23.9??
2014Green Bay23.922.126
2009•• Seattle23.823.63
2015• Washington23.823.310
2015• New Orleans23.823.66
2014Chicago23.822.224
2014•• Jacksonville23.823.55
2014• Carolina23.823.38
2015•• Dallas23.724.03
2016Minnesota23.723.012
2012• Tampa Bay23.723.39
2016Chicago23.722.815
2017Seattle23.7??
2016Detroit23.722.914
2015• Houston23.723.38
2015NY Giants23.722.916
2014•• Dallas23.623.53
2009San Francisco23.619.331
2014Washington23.623.011
2014New Orleans23.622.716
2014Philadelphia23.622.517
2017Tampa Bay23.6??
2015Indianapolis23.623.213
2016Green Bay23.621.729
2017New England23.6??
2016NY Giants23.522.720
2013• Dallas23.524.97
2014•• Tampa Bay23.523.82
2012Carolina23.423.012
2013•• Kansas City23.425.15
2017New Orleans23.4??
2012• Kansas City23.423.56
2013• San Diego23.424.310
2009Arizona23.320.329
2017Jacksonville23.3??
2015• Tennessee23.323.39
2016Washington23.321.232
2011Washington23.322.912
2015•• New England23.323.95
2017Chicago23.3??

—Ian Allan