I like the metric of passing yards per attempt. For whatever reason, it tends to be underrated in comparison to the sister stats for backs and receivers. When a runner averages 5.0 per attempt, we’re all impressed. When a receiver averages 15.0 yards per catch, we know he’s getting downfield. With quarterbacks, we don’t tend to look at it much.
But it’s just as valuable.
When a quarterback has a high YPA, it means he’s getting the ball downfield successfully.
Matt Ryan, for example, was ripping things up pretty good last year, and he ended up averaging 9.26 yards per attempt. That was the highest by a quarterback since Kurt Warner with the Greatest Show on Turf. Ryan was not only good, he was really good – better in that metric than all those great seasons by Manning, Brady, Brees and Rodgers.
| HIGHEST YARDS-PER-ATTEMPT SINCE 2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | YPA |
| 2000 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 68% | 3,429 | 21 | 18 | 9.88 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 70% | 4,944 | 38 | 7 | 9.26 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 68% | 4,643 | 45 | 6 | 9.25 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 68% | 4,557 | 49 | 10 | 9.17 |
| 2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 64% | 2,891 | 27 | 2 | 9.12 |
| 2005 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 63% | 2,385 | 17 | 9 | 8.90 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 66% | 2,621 | 17 | 11 | 8.88 |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 69% | 4,830 | 36 | 22 | 8.85 |
| 2009 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 65% | 4,254 | 28 | 9 | 8.75 |
| 2013 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 67% | 2,536 | 17 | 6 | 8.74 |
| 2010 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 66% | 4,710 | 30 | 13 | 8.71 |
| 2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 64% | 4,671 | 35 | 11 | 8.70 |
| 2006 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 65% | 2,903 | 19 | 13 | 8.61 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 69% | 4,717 | 39 | 11 | 8.61 |
| 2000 | Trent Green, St.L. | 60% | 2,063 | 16 | 5 | 8.60 |
Similarly, when a quarterback has a really low YPA, that means he’s struggling. We could see with the naked eye that Jared Goff was struggling last year, and that was confirmed with the numbers. In this century, only 12 quarterbacks have finished with a lower YPA.
| LOWEST YARDS-PER-ATTEMPT SINCE 2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | YPA |
| 2000 | Akili Smith, Cin. | 44% | 1,253 | 3 | 6 | 4.69 |
| 2000 | Doug Pederson, Clev. | 56% | 1,047 | 2 | 8 | 4.99 |
| 2004 | Mark Brunell, Wash. | 50% | 1,194 | 7 | 6 | 5.04 |
| 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 54% | 1,661 | 9 | 9 | 5.06 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 52% | 1,869 | 9 | 13 | 5.08 |
| 2008 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin. | 59% | 1,905 | 8 | 9 | 5.12 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 56% | 2,880 | 17 | 22 | 5.20 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 53% | 1,558 | 3 | 9 | 5.21 |
| 2009 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 53% | 1,339 | 8 | 7 | 5.23 |
| 2009 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 49% | 1,287 | 3 | 11 | 5.23 |
| 2002 | Shane Matthews, Wash. | 52% | 1,251 | 11 | 6 | 5.28 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 55% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 5.31 |
| 2004 | A.J. Feeley, Mia. | 54% | 1,893 | 11 | 15 | 5.32 |
| 2007 | Trent Dilfer, S.F. | 52% | 1,166 | 7 | 12 | 5.32 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 50% | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 5.35 |
Now let’s turn our attention to the 2016 data, and see what pops up as interesting.
Note that I’m changing the YPA numbers a little. In the official NFL data, “Yards Per Attempt” is calculated by taking the passing yards and dividing by the attempts. With sacks being a key component of the game (it’s a valuable skill to be able to avoid negative plays) I am also working them in. So instead of passing yards, it’s net passing yards (after sack yardage has been subtracted). And instead of passing attempts, it’s pass plays (adding the sacks).
And it turns out this way …
| YARD PER ATTEMPT (2016 season) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | YPA |
| Matt Ryan | 70% | 4,944 | 38 | 7 | 8.25 |
| Tom Brady | 67% | 3,554 | 28 | 2 | 7.76 |
| Kirk Cousins | 67% | 4,917 | 25 | 12 | 7.52 |
| Dak Prescott | 68% | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 7.28 |
| Drew Brees | 70% | 5,208 | 37 | 15 | 7.18 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 64% | 3,819 | 29 | 13 | 6.99 |
| Marcus Mariota | 61% | 3,426 | 26 | 9 | 6.90 |
| Philip Rivers | 60% | 4,386 | 33 | 21 | 6.84 |
| Andrew Luck | 63% | 4,240 | 31 | 13 | 6.78 |
| Derek Carr | 64% | 3,937 | 28 | 6 | 6.70 |
| Russell Wilson | 65% | 4,219 | 21 | 11 | 6.69 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 67% | 2,995 | 19 | 12 | 6.65 |
| Andy Dalton | 65% | 4,206 | 18 | 8 | 6.53 |
| Matthew Stafford | 65% | 4,327 | 24 | 10 | 6.52 |
| Alex Smith | 67% | 3,502 | 15 | 8 | 6.50 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 66% | 4,428 | 40 | 7 | 6.48 |
| Jameis Winston | 61% | 4,090 | 28 | 18 | 6.40 |
| Eli Manning | 63% | 4,027 | 26 | 16 | 6.28 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 57% | 2,710 | 12 | 17 | 6.23 |
| Trevor Siemian | 59% | 3,401 | 18 | 10 | 6.22 |
| Carson Palmer | 61% | 4,233 | 26 | 14 | 6.20 |
| Sam Bradford | 72% | 3,877 | 20 | 5 | 6.11 |
| Case Keenum | 61% | 2,201 | 9 | 11 | 5.97 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 62% | 3,023 | 17 | 6 | 5.92 |
| Cam Newton | 53% | 3,509 | 19 | 14 | 5.92 |
| Joe Flacco | 65% | 4,317 | 20 | 15 | 5.78 |
| Cody Kessler | 66% | 1,380 | 6 | 2 | 5.74 |
| Blake Bortles | 59% | 3,905 | 23 | 16 | 5.63 |
| Carson Wentz | 62% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 5.58 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 59% | 2,241 | 16 | 4 | 5.54 |
| Brock Osweiler | 59% | 2,957 | 15 | 16 | 5.12 |
| Jared Goff | 55% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 3.75 |
A few names that stick out to me:
Aaron Rodgers: We all tend to agree that Rodgers had a great season last year. Certainly 40 TDs versus 7 interceptions was unusually good. But he didn’t hit the downfield passes like he has in the past. A lot more short stuff, and he was only average in this metric. He’s the No. 1 quarterback on most boards this year, and maybe we should all but giving more consideration to Tom Brady.
Cam Newton: He struggled last year. How good of a passer is he, really? When he’s been successful, it’s been with the run-pass combo. He’s set up his passing with the threat of him running. Now they want him running less and being more of a regular, pocket quarterback. I’m not sure he can play that style of ball effectively. Tough to teach an old dog new tricks.
Carson Wentz: He is generally acclaimed for having had a great rookie season, but truth is he really struggled for the final three months of last year. I don’t see him as particularly likely to break out. To me, “break out” means finishing with above-average passing numbers – he would have to finish with better numbers than 16 of the other 31 starting quarterbacks, and I don’t think he’ll do it.
Colin Kaepernick: He finished with the nice ratio of 16 TDs versus 4 interceptions, but he didn’t pass the eyeball test in the games I saw. He didn’t look comfortable or confident. There were just a couple of games all year where he kind of put it together for a little bit. (I’m thinking of the games at Arizona and Miami, where he had the 49ers moving it some and those games were in doubt). But a really ineffective and inaccurate passer out of the pocket, and that’s shown in the number here.
Joe Flacco: Is he any good? He had that hot streak, helping them win a Super Bowl, but otherwise has mostly struggled. I thought he had some decent players around him last year but struggled. Again. Like he’s been doing a lot in recent years. He’s the No. 20 quarterback on my board right now, and I’m wondering if maybe I should move him down a few spots.
Sam Bradford: He set an NFL record for completion percentage, but here’s the more telling stat. Was he moving the ball? Not really. He was completing a lot of short, harmless balls. Is setting for a 3-yard completion on third-and-8 a good thing? Well below average in this metric.
—Ian Allan