Fantasy Index

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Strength of schedule

Colts, Chargers have slanted schedules in first half of season

We’ve seen the strength of schedule numbers, but let’s parse it out a bit – looking at which teams have easy and hard schedules in the first and second halves of the season. That could give us an idea of which teams might start strong, and which teams might play better late in the year.

For the first half of the year, I took just the first eight games for each team. That gets us out of worry about byes and teams playing different numbers of games.

Using wins and losses, the Colts project to have the easiest schedule in the league in the first half of the season – by far. Their first eight games are against teams than went a combined 42-83-3 last year (which is downright putrid). The Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens also project to have favorable schedules in the first half of the season.

In the first half of the season, the Chargers have the hardest schedule (also by a mile). Their first eight are against teams that went a remarkable 84-44-0 last year. Other teams with hard initial schedules: Kansas City, Denver and Detroit.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (G 1-8)
TeamWLTPct
Indianapolis42833.340
Pittsburgh50771.395
Arizona54740.422
Baltimore54731.426
Cincinnati57710.445
Minnesota58700.453
Carolina58700.453
Miami59690.461
Philadelphia59663.473
Jacksonville60671.473
Seattle61661.480
Tennessee61661.480
Buffalo63641.496
Oakland63641.496
LA Rams62633.496
New England64640.500
Atlanta64640.500
Dallas63632.500
Houston63632.500
San Francisco63623.504
Cleveland64631.504
NY Giants66611.520
Tampa Bay66611.520
Washington67601.527
NY Jets68600.531
Green Bay67592.531
New Orleans69590.539
Chicago70580.547
Detroit71561.559
Denver72560.563
Kansas City75521.590
LA Chargers84440.656

If we use points rather than wins, the results are similar. Indianapolis and Arizona are still up in the top 4 for easiness. They’re joined by the Dolphins and Patriots. And the Chargers still project to have a schedule that’s way harder than anybody else’s. Kansas City still ranks next-to-last, and the Giants and Bucs aren’t far behind.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (G 1-8)
TeamAverage
Miami24.8
Arizona24.3
New England24.2
Indianapolis24.0
Minnesota24.0
NY Jets23.7
Philadelphia23.7
Seattle23.6
Carolina23.6
Buffalo23.4
Cincinnati23.3
Chicago23.2
Baltimore23.2
Atlanta23.2
Tennessee23.0
Detroit22.9
Oakland22.7
LA Rams22.6
Dallas22.6
Jacksonville22.4
Pittsburgh22.4
San Francisco22.4
New Orleans22.3
Denver22.2
Green Bay22.2
Washington22.1
Houston21.8
Cleveland21.7
NY Giants21.6
Tampa Bay21.6
Kansas City21.3
LA Chargers19.8

Switching our focus to the second half of the year, we see different teams at the top and bottom.

The Lions, Titans and Jaguars project to play the easiest schedules. The Raiders and Dolphins tie for the hardest schedules, with the Bills just a game back.

(The Colts and Chargers, meanwhile, move to the middle of the pack.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (G 9-16)
TeamWLTPct
Detroit48791.379
Tennessee50762.398
Jacksonville51752.406
Chicago52751.410
Houston52751.410
Seattle54722.430
Green Bay55730.430
Cleveland55721.434
San Francisco56702.445
Minnesota57692.453
Cincinnati58700.453
LA Rams59672.469
New Orleans61661.480
LA Chargers61661.480
Baltimore63641.496
Indianapolis65630.508
Arizona64613.512
Pittsburgh65621.512
Tampa Bay66620.516
NY Jets69590.539
Atlanta69581.543
NY Giants69563.551
New England71570.555
Carolina71570.555
Washington71561.559
Dallas71552.563
Kansas City72560.563
Philadelphia75521.590
Denver75512.594
Buffalo80480.625
Miami81470.633
Oakland81470.633

Finally, looking at points allowed (for the second half of the year). The Bucs and Saints appear to have the easiest schedules. That’s a swing from the first half, when they were both in the bottom 10.

The Raiders and Dolphins, meanwhile, again come out on the bottom – hardest schedules for both wins and points in the second half of the season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (G 9-16)
TeamAverage
Tampa Bay25.6
New Orleans24.6
Carolina24.4
Jacksonville24.3
Houston23.9
Minnesota23.8
Seattle23.8
LA Chargers23.6
Tennessee23.4
Chicago23.4
Atlanta23.1
Detroit23.0
NY Giants23.0
Baltimore23.0
Green Bay22.9
New England22.9
LA Rams22.9
Cleveland22.9
NY Jets22.5
Kansas City22.4
Buffalo22.2
Cincinnati22.2
San Francisco22.2
Dallas22.1
Denver22.1
Pittsburgh22.1
Indianapolis21.5
Arizona21.5
Washington21.2
Philadelphia20.8
Miami20.7
Oakland20.2

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index