We’ve seen the strength of schedule numbers, but let’s parse it out a bit – looking at which teams have easy and hard schedules in the first and second halves of the season. That could give us an idea of which teams might start strong, and which teams might play better late in the year.
For the first half of the year, I took just the first eight games for each team. That gets us out of worry about byes and teams playing different numbers of games.
Using wins and losses, the Colts project to have the easiest schedule in the league in the first half of the season – by far. Their first eight games are against teams than went a combined 42-83-3 last year (which is downright putrid). The Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens also project to have favorable schedules in the first half of the season.
In the first half of the season, the Chargers have the hardest schedule (also by a mile). Their first eight are against teams that went a remarkable 84-44-0 last year. Other teams with hard initial schedules: Kansas City, Denver and Detroit.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (G 1-8) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Indianapolis | 42 | 83 | 3 | .340 |
Pittsburgh | 50 | 77 | 1 | .395 |
Arizona | 54 | 74 | 0 | .422 |
Baltimore | 54 | 73 | 1 | .426 |
Cincinnati | 57 | 71 | 0 | .445 |
Minnesota | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
Carolina | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
Miami | 59 | 69 | 0 | .461 |
Philadelphia | 59 | 66 | 3 | .473 |
Jacksonville | 60 | 67 | 1 | .473 |
Seattle | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
Tennessee | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
Buffalo | 63 | 64 | 1 | .496 |
Oakland | 63 | 64 | 1 | .496 |
LA Rams | 62 | 63 | 3 | .496 |
New England | 64 | 64 | 0 | .500 |
Atlanta | 64 | 64 | 0 | .500 |
Dallas | 63 | 63 | 2 | .500 |
Houston | 63 | 63 | 2 | .500 |
San Francisco | 63 | 62 | 3 | .504 |
Cleveland | 64 | 63 | 1 | .504 |
NY Giants | 66 | 61 | 1 | .520 |
Tampa Bay | 66 | 61 | 1 | .520 |
Washington | 67 | 60 | 1 | .527 |
NY Jets | 68 | 60 | 0 | .531 |
Green Bay | 67 | 59 | 2 | .531 |
New Orleans | 69 | 59 | 0 | .539 |
Chicago | 70 | 58 | 0 | .547 |
Detroit | 71 | 56 | 1 | .559 |
Denver | 72 | 56 | 0 | .563 |
Kansas City | 75 | 52 | 1 | .590 |
LA Chargers | 84 | 44 | 0 | .656 |
If we use points rather than wins, the results are similar. Indianapolis and Arizona are still up in the top 4 for easiness. They’re joined by the Dolphins and Patriots. And the Chargers still project to have a schedule that’s way harder than anybody else’s. Kansas City still ranks next-to-last, and the Giants and Bucs aren’t far behind.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (G 1-8) | |
---|---|
Team | Average |
Miami | 24.8 |
Arizona | 24.3 |
New England | 24.2 |
Indianapolis | 24.0 |
Minnesota | 24.0 |
NY Jets | 23.7 |
Philadelphia | 23.7 |
Seattle | 23.6 |
Carolina | 23.6 |
Buffalo | 23.4 |
Cincinnati | 23.3 |
Chicago | 23.2 |
Baltimore | 23.2 |
Atlanta | 23.2 |
Tennessee | 23.0 |
Detroit | 22.9 |
Oakland | 22.7 |
LA Rams | 22.6 |
Dallas | 22.6 |
Jacksonville | 22.4 |
Pittsburgh | 22.4 |
San Francisco | 22.4 |
New Orleans | 22.3 |
Denver | 22.2 |
Green Bay | 22.2 |
Washington | 22.1 |
Houston | 21.8 |
Cleveland | 21.7 |
NY Giants | 21.6 |
Tampa Bay | 21.6 |
Kansas City | 21.3 |
LA Chargers | 19.8 |
Switching our focus to the second half of the year, we see different teams at the top and bottom.
The Lions, Titans and Jaguars project to play the easiest schedules. The Raiders and Dolphins tie for the hardest schedules, with the Bills just a game back.
(The Colts and Chargers, meanwhile, move to the middle of the pack.)
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (G 9-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Detroit | 48 | 79 | 1 | .379 |
Tennessee | 50 | 76 | 2 | .398 |
Jacksonville | 51 | 75 | 2 | .406 |
Chicago | 52 | 75 | 1 | .410 |
Houston | 52 | 75 | 1 | .410 |
Seattle | 54 | 72 | 2 | .430 |
Green Bay | 55 | 73 | 0 | .430 |
Cleveland | 55 | 72 | 1 | .434 |
San Francisco | 56 | 70 | 2 | .445 |
Minnesota | 57 | 69 | 2 | .453 |
Cincinnati | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
LA Rams | 59 | 67 | 2 | .469 |
New Orleans | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
LA Chargers | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
Baltimore | 63 | 64 | 1 | .496 |
Indianapolis | 65 | 63 | 0 | .508 |
Arizona | 64 | 61 | 3 | .512 |
Pittsburgh | 65 | 62 | 1 | .512 |
Tampa Bay | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
NY Jets | 69 | 59 | 0 | .539 |
Atlanta | 69 | 58 | 1 | .543 |
NY Giants | 69 | 56 | 3 | .551 |
New England | 71 | 57 | 0 | .555 |
Carolina | 71 | 57 | 0 | .555 |
Washington | 71 | 56 | 1 | .559 |
Dallas | 71 | 55 | 2 | .563 |
Kansas City | 72 | 56 | 0 | .563 |
Philadelphia | 75 | 52 | 1 | .590 |
Denver | 75 | 51 | 2 | .594 |
Buffalo | 80 | 48 | 0 | .625 |
Miami | 81 | 47 | 0 | .633 |
Oakland | 81 | 47 | 0 | .633 |
Finally, looking at points allowed (for the second half of the year). The Bucs and Saints appear to have the easiest schedules. That’s a swing from the first half, when they were both in the bottom 10.
The Raiders and Dolphins, meanwhile, again come out on the bottom – hardest schedules for both wins and points in the second half of the season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (G 9-16) | |
---|---|
Team | Average |
Tampa Bay | 25.6 |
New Orleans | 24.6 |
Carolina | 24.4 |
Jacksonville | 24.3 |
Houston | 23.9 |
Minnesota | 23.8 |
Seattle | 23.8 |
LA Chargers | 23.6 |
Tennessee | 23.4 |
Chicago | 23.4 |
Atlanta | 23.1 |
Detroit | 23.0 |
NY Giants | 23.0 |
Baltimore | 23.0 |
Green Bay | 22.9 |
New England | 22.9 |
LA Rams | 22.9 |
Cleveland | 22.9 |
NY Jets | 22.5 |
Kansas City | 22.4 |
Buffalo | 22.2 |
Cincinnati | 22.2 |
San Francisco | 22.2 |
Dallas | 22.1 |
Denver | 22.1 |
Pittsburgh | 22.1 |
Indianapolis | 21.5 |
Arizona | 21.5 |
Washington | 21.2 |
Philadelphia | 20.8 |
Miami | 20.7 |
Oakland | 20.2 |
—Ian Allan