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Revised strength of schedule

Looking at schedules using 2017 expectations

The Raiders project to play the league’s hardest schedule, with opponents allowing only 21.4 points per game on average. But I’m skeptical. Playing around with the numbers, I’m more inclined to believe Oakland will have one of the easier schedules.

Strength of schedule, after all, is built from how teams played last year, but defenses change. Houston gets J.J. Watt back. Arizona, Baltimore and Cincinnati seem to be slipping. San Francisco, Cleveland and New Orleans all allowed a bunch of points last year, but they’ve been adding guys.

So better to build Strength of Schedule not around what defenses used to be, but what they will be in 2017.

For starters, let’s agree on approximately what we’re looking at with these defenses. Here’s how I rank them (1 thru 32), for expected points allowed. First three columns show the points allowed the last three years, and the final column includes my expectation for 2017.

EXPECTED DEFENSIVE POINTS ALLOWED
Team14151617
NY Giants25.027.617.818.4
Seattle15.917.318.318.7
Denver22.118.518.619.1
Minnesota21.418.919.219.3
Kansas City17.617.919.419.6
New England19.619.715.619.8
Pittsburgh23.019.920.420.2
Houston19.219.620.520.4
Dallas22.023.419.121.3
Baltimore18.925.120.122.1
Atlanta26.121.625.422.3
Philadelphia25.026.920.722.5
Carolina23.419.325.122.8
Detroit17.625.022.423.0
Arizona18.719.622.623.1
Tampa Bay25.626.123.123.3
Tennessee27.426.423.623.4
Cincinnati21.517.419.723.5
Washington27.423.723.923.7
Jacksonville25.828.025.023.8
LA Chargers21.824.926.424.0
Buffalo18.122.423.624.1
Miami23.324.323.824.1
Oakland28.324.924.124.2
Green Bay21.820.224.324.3
Chicago27.624.824.924.7
Indianapolis23.125.524.525.0
LA Rams22.120.624.625.4
NY Jets25.119.625.626.0
New Orleans26.529.828.426.8
Cleveland21.127.028.327.1
San Francisco21.324.230.027.4

If we then plug those numbers into the 2017 schedule, we get a general idea of which teams will play the easiest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
TeamPtsPrevPrv Rk
Arizona24.422.914
NY Giants24.022.323
Dallas23.922.422
Kansas City23.821.829
Los Angeles23.722.817
Oakland23.621.432
Washington23.521.731
Denver23.422.128
Philadelphia23.422.226
San Diego23.421.730
Jacksonville23.223.37
Buffalo23.222.816
Houston23.122.815
Seattle23.023.73
San Francisco22.922.325
• Carolina22.924.01
Atlanta22.923.110
New England22.923.65
Indianapolis22.922.818
Miami22.922.720
NY Jets22.623.111
Tennessee22.623.29
Baltimore22.623.112
Cleveland22.522.324
• New Orleans22.523.46
Chicago22.423.38
Cincinnati22.222.819
• Minnesota22.123.92
Green Bay22.022.521
Pittsburgh21.822.227
• Detroit21.623.013
• Tampa Bay21.623.64

In this chart, you’ve got the team name. Then you’ve got what I’m expecting (the average of the 16 games each team will play, using my defensive points forecast for each club). The Cardinals, Giants and Cowboys project to play the easiest schedules, and the Bucs, Lions and Steelers projecting to play the hardest. There’s a “Prev” column; that shows the schedule using how defenses played in 2016. And the “Prv Rk” shows how the team ranked previously (using 2016 data).

If a team’s schedule projects to be at least a point per week easier, the team name appears in bold. If it projects to be at least a point harder, it’s tagged with a black dot.

Lots of movement. The Raiders are supposed to have the hardest schedule, but they come out with the 6th-easiest using my projections. The Panthers are supposed to see the easiest defenses this year, but I’ve got them in the middle of the pack. And they’re just two of many big movers.

Seven teams officially are supposed to have bottom-10 schedules but instead (if my projections are correct) will have schedules in the top 10. Similarly, four teams that are supposed to have top-10 easy schedules instead end up in the bottom 10.

—Ian Allan

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