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Factoid

Miami Dolphins

Is DeVante Parker poised for a breakout season?

Who’s going to be the best wide receiver in Miami? They’ve got three good ones, and Ryan Tannehill indicates he likes what he sees from DeVante Parker. Parker is super talented but hasn’t quite been able to get things rolling in his first two years.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald checked in on Miami’s practice and says Tannehill believes Parker will have a breakout season.

“The growth he’s had this offseason has been huge,” Tannehill said. “I saw it back in March when we were throwing. Just seeing him move, seeing him run, really run at top speed for the fist time.”

“I’ve said it before: We had a Ferrari with four flat tires. He had all the power, but with all the injuries – the hamstring, the foot – he never could really let loose and go. We’re starting to see that. We saw it all spring, how fast he is.”

Sounds good in theory. But the reality is that lots of guys on every team look good while running around in shorts in practices. It’s tougher doing it on the field.

The Dolphins already have a pair of other quality wide receivers. Jarvis Landry has caught 288 passes in his first three seasons, tying the league record. And Kenny Stills is a great deep threat; he averaged 17.3 yards per catch last year, scoring on 9 of his 42 receptions (the only NFL wide receiver last year to score on over 20 percent of his catches).

Is Tannehill an above-average quarterback? He hasn’t done it yet. And Adam Gase hasn’t put up big passing offenses since he was working with Peyton Manning. The Dolphins ranked 26th in passing last year – that team started winning when they started running the heck out of the ball. The previous year in Chicago, Gase’s offense ranked 25th in passing, averaging 240 yards (with 21 TD passes).

If Parker were going to be a big star – a difference maker – chances are we would have seen more from him by this point. He caught 56 passes and 4 TDs last year. He caught 26 passes and 3 TDs as a rookie.

Looking at wide receivers selected in the first four rounds in this century, 33 have gone over 150 fantasy points in their third year (that’s using standard scoring). A third of those guys (11) had lesser overall stats in their first two years than what Parker has done those far. But most have been helped along by other factors. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Sidney Rice were assisted by additions of Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Brett Favre). Javon Walker, Plaxico Burress, Roddy White and Steve Smith (both of them) hardly played at times in their first two years.

THIRD-YEAR RECEIVERS WITH 150-PLUS POINTS
YearPlayerNoYdsTDPts(first 2 years)
2007Braylon Edwards, Clev.801,28916224.9(93–1396–9)
2015DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.1111,52111218.1(128–2012–8)
2012Dez Bryant, Dall.921,38212210.2(108–1489–17)
2004• Javon Walker, G.B.891,38212210.2(64–1035–10)
2013A.J. Green, Cin.981,42611208.6(162–2407–18)
2016Mike Evans, T.B.961,32112204.1(142–2257–15)
2012• Demaryius Thomas, Den.941,43410203.4(54–834–6)
2016Odell Beckham Jr., NYG1011,36710196.7(187–2755–25)
2003Chad Johnson, Cin.901,35510195.5(97–1495–6)
2012• Eric Decker, Den.851,06413184.4(50–718–9)
2008Greg Jennings, G.B.801,2929183.2(98–1552–15)
2005Anquan Boldin, Ariz.1021,4027182.2(157–2000–9)
2009• Sidney Rice, Minn.831,3128179.2(46–537–8)
2006Lee Evans, Buff.821,2928177.2(96–1586–16)
2014T.Y. Hilton, Ind.821,3457176.5(132–1944–12)
2002• Plaxico Burress, Pitt.781,3257174.5(88–1281–6)
2014Alshon Jeffery, Chi.851,13310173.3(113–1788–10)
2006Roy Williams, Det.821,3107173.0(99–1504–16)
2016• Davante Adams, G.B.7599712171.7(88–929–4)
2003• Santana Moss, NYJ741,10510170.5(32–473–6)
2011Mike Wallace, Pitt.721,1938167.3(99–2013–16)
2016Brandin Cooks, N.O.781,1738165.3(137–1688–13)
2009• Steve Smith, NYG1071,2207164.0(65–637–1)
2008Brandon Marshall, Den.1041,2656162.5(122–1634–9)
2003Chris Chambers, Mia.6496311162.3(100–1617–10)
2011Hakeem Nicks, NYG761,1927161.2(126–1842–17)
2003• Steve Smith, Car.881,1108159.0(64–1026–8)
2002Laveranues Coles, NYJ891,2645156.4(81–1238–8)
2007• Roddy White, Atl.831,2026156.2(59–952–3)
2010DeSean Jackson, Phil.471,0568153.6(124–2068–16)
2012Mike Williams, T.B.639969153.6(130–1735–14)
2011Percy Harvin, Minn.879679150.7(131–1658–15)
2004• Ashley Lelie, Den.541,0847150.4(72–1153–4)
2017DeVante Parker, Mia.????(82–1238–7)

In the Barry Jackson article, Tannehill also talks up Julius Thomas, suggesting he’ll be an effective red zone weapons.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index