Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Marcus Mariota average or elite? Identifying breakout wide receivers? Why are lesser running backs being chosen before Aaron Rodgers? And mulling whether to dish off Ezekiel Elliott in a dynasty league.
Question 1
The Titans appear to be an under-the-radar team. They very well could will win the AFC South. But your team scouting report in the magazine didn't offer much hope for the Titans' fantasy prospects. You called Marcus Mariota a "middle-of-the-pack prospect," you think DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry will share enough carries to hurt both their values and it's still unclear how the passing game will shake out with Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker and rookie Corey Davis. You even point out that the Titans have attempted the fewest field goals of any team over the past three years. Somebody on this team has to emerge. Who on the Titans would you be targeting and where would you hope to draft them?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
Mariota’s fine, but there are a lot of good quarterbacks out there. I can’t get him in my top 10. He’s very mobile, but he doesn’t tend to run the ball much – that hasn’t been a big part of his game. Looks pretty similar, I think, to some other quarterbacks I didn’t put in the top 10 – Stafford, Carr, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Newton. With the running backs, it’s a one-two punch, and I see Henry coming on. Hard to go after Murray too aggressively when you might not even be getting the best running back on that team. With the pass catchers, there’s a lot of depth. Of that group, I like Rishard Matthews the most. I think he’ll be better than Davis and Decker. Matthews with the league’s 4th-best wide receiver in the second half of last year (that’s standard scoring – 38 catches for 588 yards and 6 TDs in his final eight games). I see Matthews as the wide receiver most likely to sneak into the top 20 at that position.
Question 2
I really enjoy reading the articles that you guys put out daily! It's great stuff. In finding breakout wide receivers, one big factor seems to always be an increase in playing time and targets. Who are a few receivers that you think will see a large increase in target share in 2017 and have breakout seasons?
Kyle Wells (Lynnwood, WA)
Somebody in Washington will see a lot of passes. Jamison Crowder or Terrelle Pryor, most likely, and maybe both. That team put two wide receivers over 1,000 yards last year. I have been banging the drum for Tyreek Hill and Pierre Garcon for most of the offseason and will continue to do so – I think those guys will be heavily featured. Brandin Cooks is gone from the Saints, so I think they’ll have to use Willie Snead more. With Mike Williams (back) banged up, Keenan Allen probably will be undervalued. And how about some later-round love for Corey Coleman? He was the first receiver drafted a year ago, and I think there’s some talent there – could be a Cooks-type receiver if they can get him the ball.
Question 3
Since quarterbacks always lead the lead in scoring and 19 QBs are projected to score more points per game than David Johnson, why are so many RBs going higher than the top QB (Aaron Rodgers) in drafts?
CRAIG EICHHORN (Houston, TX)
Supply and demand. Teams start only one quarterback, but they start two running backs (sometimes even three), making it more important to fill that position. Rather than looking at total points, consider who you might be able to choose in the eighth round of your draft. In typical fantasy drafts, I think you can get a serviceable quarterback like Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford or Marcus Mariota in the eighth round. Those guys should score somewhere around 340 points. So with Rodgers, his value isn’t 400 points; his value is about 60 – that’s the upgrade you get over selecting a quarterback a lot later. At running back, if you leave it until the eighth round, I think you’re looking at somebody along the lines of Kareem Hunt, LeGarrette Blount or Jonathan Stewart. Those guys should give you about 125 points. If you instead selected one of the Big 3 running backs, you’re looking at 260-280 points. That’s a difference of 135-plus points. So while Rodgers is a great player, he doesn’t really compare to the likes of Johnson, Bell and Elliott in traditional fantasy formats.
Question 4
10-team, standard scoring, 2-player keeper league. There is no limit on how many years you can keep a player. I have kept Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard. I have an offer to trade Elliott for the 5th overall pick as well as a 2nd round pick (15th overall). Would another running back likely available at 5 like Melvin Gordon, or Todd Gurley along with the additional 2nd round pick be enough to pull the trigger?
JASON BUTTERFIELD (Schofield, WI)
Not for me. Elliott looks like he’s going to be very good for a lot of years. (Assuming he doesn’t get hurt or explode off the field.) With him maybe facing a suspension, perhaps you come out ahead on a two-for-one trade this year, but you’ve also got to think about 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Getting rid of Elliott now very easily could be similar to giving up on Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson after their rookie years.
Question 5
When did the site of the Hall of Fame game change names from Fawcett Stadium to Tom Benson stadium? You would think that the Hall of Fame would be about honoring the past. Nothing against Mr. Benson, but maybe instead of accepting big $ to call it the "Mercedes Benz Superdome" or whatever that is, they could name HIS team's stadium after HIM, and not diminish the history of Akron Ohio and the Hall of Fame.
JOHN MACHO (Elko New Mrkt, MN)
I don’t have a problem with it. Some of the old names are better. I miss venues like Three Rivers Stadiums, the Orange Bowl, RFK Stadium and Candlestick Park. But if there’s a sponsor willing to pump in millions, that more than makes up for the downgrade. In this case, Tom Benson wrote a check for $10 million for upgrades to the stadium. That’s money that’s going to benefit a lot of schools, making it an easy call (in my opinion). Choice is to either have a dilapidated stadium with the name of a former school board member who died over 80 years ago, or stick Benson’s name on there and have a much better facility. If you want to leave John Fawcett’s name on there, some kind of local tax or levy would be needed to bring the venue up to date.
Question 6
My league has unique scoring for defenses. In addition to the standard 3 pts for takeaways, 1 for sack & 6 for Defensive TDs, we lose points based on scoring allowed. For example: Packers Win 14-12 with 1 sack and 1 INT. The Packer D scores -12 pts (pts allowed) + 3 pts (INT) + 1 pts (sack) = -8 pts. Since the custom scoring system does not allow for this, who would you rank as the top 10 defenses under this scoring model?
Chris Steinman (Avon Lake, OH)
The system is driven mainly by points. Sacks and takeaways aren’t so important – you want defenses that are going to have plenty of games where they hold opponents to no more than 17 points. I’d like to see you get two (maybe even three) of those defenses, giving you plenty of opportunities for matchups against low-scoring offenses like the Jets, Browns, Rams, 49ers and Bears. (Loophole alert: what happens if you start a defense on its bye week? Those defenses would probably outscore all of the ones that were actually playing.) According to our most recent stat projections (and you can find these in an Excel file in ‘Your Stuff’ area) the teams should be ranked about like this …
| CHRIS' DEFENSIVE RANKINGS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Points |
| 1. | Denver | -10.2 |
| 2. | Seattle | -11.5 |
| 3. | NY Giants | -11.6 |
| 4. | Minnesota | -11.8 |
| 5. | Kansas City | -12.1 |
| 6. | Baltimore | -12.7 |
| 7. | Houston | -12.7 |
| 8. | New England | -12.9 |
| 9. | Carolina | -14.2 |
| 10. | Pittsburgh | -14.4 |
| 11. | Atlanta | -14.6 |
| 12. | LA Chargers | -14.7 |
| 13. | Buffalo | -14.7 |
| 14. | Philadelphia | -14.8 |
| 15. | LA Rams | -14.8 |
| 16. | Tennessee | -14.9 |
| 17. | Arizona | -14.9 |
| 18. | Oakland | -15.3 |
| 19. | Cincinnati | -15.6 |
| 20. | Dallas | -16.1 |
| 21. | Jacksonville | -16.3 |
| 22. | Tampa Bay | -16.4 |
| 23. | Green Bay | -16.8 |
| 24. | Miami | -16.9 |
| 25. | Washington | -17.1 |
| 26. | Detroit | -17.4 |
| 27. | Chicago | -18.2 |
| 28. | NY Jets | -18.5 |
| 29. | Indianapolis | -18.5 |
| 30. | San Francisco | -19.2 |
| 31. | Cleveland | -20.5 |
| 32. | New Orleans | -20.5 |
Question 7
A couple of auction questions. I've noticed that the Big 3 RBs are going for a ton more money than any player has gone in our draft, about 20-25 bucks more a player from a $200 budget. Is that due to them being in a class by themselves, or is something crazy wrong? I used the same numbers I have been using for years, with minor tweaks for last year’s auction results. Also, any tips for speeding up the auction? Usually lasts over 4 hours, and I can see some folks getting tired of it. I will never go back to snake, so want to make it work more efficiently.
ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)
Those star running backs look pretty special. David Johnson and LeVeon Bell aren’t only great runners, they also catch a ton of passes, making them tough to beat. As far as speedy up the auction, there are a couple of routes you can go. You can remind owners to be ready to nominate when it’s their turn. You can jump bid players. (That is, if you know a player is going to go for around $30, you can quickly chime in with a bid of $20 – eliminating the $1 thru $19 bids.) And you can consider a drauction – a combination draft/auction. With a drauction, give each team $100 to buy four players. After each team has four players on their roster, the remaining players are allocated via an auction, with the team having the most money left at the end of the drauction getting to select first in every round.
Question 8
Based on your pre-season rankings, in a TD-heavy format, the Falcons' T. Coleman and D. Freeman are both top-10 RB's. This appears to be based on close to a 50-50 split as far as projected running back scoring for the Falcons. Should this split be closer to 70-30 in favor of Freeman, is Freeman dealing with an injury, or are you expecting Coleman to get a lot more playing time and/or the short-yardage role?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Last year the team ran the ball 11 times when it was on the 1-yard line, and Freeman got all of those carries. I don’t think that will happen again, but I don’t think there’s much chance of Coleman being penciled in as their short-yardage and goal-line back. These are both good backs. Currently I’ve got Freeman as #4 in TD-only among backs, and Coleman at 13th. With Coleman, I think he has value as a 2nd back, and he should really be special if Freeman winds up getting sidelined.