Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition. Team offensive projections. Can teams have two good wide receivers? Prospects for Ty Montgomery and Marshawn Lynch. And much, much more.
Question 1
I think you've mentioned on the podcast you project total offensive TDs by team. Can you give us those?
Andrew Beach (Toronto, ON)
Here’s where I’m at right now for team offensive projections. For the passing yards, they are gross rather than net. (That is, if Jameis Winston passes for 300 yards but also loses 30 yards on 3 sacks, I’m putting the Bucs down for 300 passing yards – not the 270 gross passing yards).
| OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | TDP | Rush | TDP |
| Arizona | 4,480 | 27.7 | 1,712 | 16.5 |
| Atlanta | 4,608 | 30.9 | 1,744 | 14.4 |
| Baltimore | 4,048 | 23.0 | 1,616 | 11.0 |
| Buffalo | 3,680 | 21.1 | 2,240 | 18.2 |
| Carolina | 3,856 | 22.1 | 2,080 | 17.8 |
| Chicago | 3,968 | 21.6 | 1,840 | 11.8 |
| Cincinnati | 4,176 | 25.1 | 1,760 | 12.2 |
| Cleveland | 3,648 | 17.3 | 1,808 | 12.2 |
| Dallas | 4,000 | 26.2 | 2,320 | 20.3 |
| Denver | 4,032 | 22.4 | 1,696 | 11.0 |
| Detroit | 4,304 | 27.7 | 1,488 | 8.0 |
| Green Bay | 4,544 | 38.4 | 1,680 | 11.1 |
| Houston | 3,648 | 20.3 | 2,192 | 14.6 |
| Indianapolis | 4,448 | 32.0 | 1,616 | 9.1 |
| Jacksonville | 3,680 | 20.0 | 1,888 | 12.3 |
| Kansas City | 3,600 | 19.5 | 1,920 | 16.6 |
| LA Chargers | 4,512 | 31.4 | 1,568 | 8.8 |
| LA Rams | 3,360 | 17.0 | 1,584 | 11.4 |
| Miami | 3,680 | 23.7 | 1,792 | 11.7 |
| Minnesota | 4,064 | 22.2 | 1,728 | 11.8 |
| New England | 4,848 | 37.1 | 1,840 | 17.9 |
| New Orleans | 4,992 | 34.2 | 1,792 | 15.7 |
| NY Giants | 4,368 | 30.9 | 1,648 | 7.8 |
| NY Jets | 3,488 | 17.8 | 1,600 | 9.3 |
| Oakland | 4,224 | 29.4 | 1,840 | 14.6 |
| Philadelphia | 3,936 | 20.3 | 1,872 | 16.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 4,672 | 32.2 | 1,888 | 13.3 |
| San Francisco | 3,760 | 20.5 | 1,712 | 10.9 |
| Seattle | 4,192 | 27.8 | 1,952 | 12.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 4,352 | 30.7 | 1,664 | 9.4 |
| Tennessee | 3,872 | 28.0 | 2,016 | 14.2 |
| Washington | 4,560 | 28.3 | 1,680 | 13.0 |
Question 2
How do you see the Packers using Ty Montgomery this season and with whom will he be sharing carries? Are they going to pull him in the goal-line/short yardage packages in favor of a fullback? Will they start throwing to their RB's more and give him a chance at some of those short TDs that Rodgers often throws to his receivers?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I think he’ll probably be a top-10 back. Good player, and I think he’ll be more comfortable at the position this year. He’s a former wide receiver, so he might catch a ton of balls. They’ll spell him some, most likely with rookie Jamaal Williams, but I think he’ll get plenty of touches. Including both rushing and receiving yards, Montgomery definitely should be a top-10 back. I don’t find him as compelling as a touchdown scorer. Packers tend to score most of their touchdowns through the air, and I don’t think Montgomery will be used consistently around the goal line. I expect Aaron Ripkowski will pick up some of the 1-yard TD runs.
Question 3
Would like your take on three RBs. <b>Marshawn Lynch:</b> Isn't this whole return a disappointment waiting to happen? <b> Paul Perkins:</b> Is he good enough to earn and keep RB2 status (1,200 all-purpose and 8 TDs)? <b>Spencer Ware: </b> Does he have anything special or just the most recent "next man up" in KC?
Vin Kmetz ()
I don’t expect I’ll select Lynch in any league. He was pretty ordinary in 2015 and sat out all of last year. He’ll be used in combination with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, and I think those guys might be more effective. They both averaged over 5 yards per carry last year, combining for almost 1,000 rushing yards. Don’t see the Raiders kicking those guys to the curb. Perkins looked pretty good late last year, running for over 100 yards when the Giants finally put him in the starting lineup in Week 17. I will be selecting him long before I even start thinking about Lynch. With Kansas City, I expect they’ll use a one-two punch. Ware has shown some ability to bang and has improved in the passing game, but he’s awfully slow. I think they’ll use both Ware and third-rounder Kareem Hunt and see what happens.
Question 4
When will the Fantasy Index Open be available?
MICHAEL MENKE (New Berlin, WI)
That’s up and running now. We’ve changed the format, making it easier to enter. Our programmers have created a new interface, allowing you to use drag-and-drop technology right on the site. That’s easier than previous years, when picks had to be sent in via attached files in Microsoft Excel. To access the contest, log onto the site and click on the blue box at the top of the page reading “YOUR STUFF”. That will take you to a new page, and there will be a link reading, “Fantasy Index Open.” The winner of this competition takes home a ridiculously large trophy from the team at Affordable Trophies.
Question 5
Carlos Hyde has been injury prone however, I believe that a healthy Hyde is better than all of the backs in camp. What do you think?
Ted friesen (Bigfork, MT)
He’s a talented guy, and maybe Kyle Shanahan is the coach who can bring him to life. Should be one of the first 20 running backs drafted, I think.
Question 6
In a TD-heavy keeper league I just completed my draft. I now have Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson. I can only keep 2. Leaning towards Adams and Watkins. Your thoughts? I also drafted Eric Swoope since Indy throws to TEs but I also have Martellus Bennett. Leaning towards Bennett due to Rodgers. What are your recommendations?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
Crowder looks promising. You can think about using him if either Adams or Watkins has any kind of setback in camp. But I think you have it scoped out right. Aaron Rodgers might throw 40 touchdowns this year, and it would be awesome to be able to roll out each week probably his 2nd- and 3rd-best touchdown catchers. If Watkins can stay healthy, he could be special; he caught 7 TDs in his final nine games two years ago. Swoope is a nice last-round pick, but not in Bennett’s league.
Question 7
9th pick of my half-ppr league, with 6 points for touchdown passes. As my draft is in Wisconsin, Aaron Rodgers will probably be gone by the end of the 1st round, midway through the 2nd at absolute latest. Would you advise going with Rodgers with the first pick and Jordy, M. Thomas, or Gordon with the second pick or another strategy?
Garrett Seymour (Fitchburg, WI)
When you go to 6 points for touchdown passes, that’s big. If you can latch onto a quarterback who’ll throw 40-plus, he can carry your team. I see two quarterbacks with a good shot at that kind of production: Rodgers and Tom Brady. They should be the 5th and 7th picks in your draft, in my opinion. If you miss out on those guys, I would defer to the depth at the position – Brees late in the 2nd round, otherwise wait until at least the fourth round before selecting a quarterback.
Question 8
8 team PPR league with 1 keeper. 16 round snake draft. Won't know my draft position until after I name the keeper. I know Jordan Howard, David Johnson and Zeke Elliot will be kept. I can keep any of these 3 guys for the next two years in the round I selected them last year. LeVeon Bell (1st round). Isaiah Crowell (14th) or Ty Montgomery (16th). I was initially leaning towards Bell with him being maybe the top player in the league, but his holdout worries me. Also, if I leave Bell unprotected and the guy with Johnson drafts him, that could be a devastating combo. I imagine whoever gets the #1 pick will take Bell if he is there. Can you crunch some numbers and help me out?
stephen hicks (Holden Beach, NC)
This is an eight-team league. Different kind of animal. Only 128 players will be chosen, so there will be a ton of good players who won’t even be chosen. Probably about a third of the players selected will be released along the way as owners scramble to grab the players who emerge along the way (like Montgomery, Robert Kelley, Tyreek Hill and Dak Prescott – those guys weren’t even chosen in your league last year). Probably only about 40 running backs and 40 wide receivers will be chosen. So premium isn’t on fielding a deep or balanced team. You’re trying to find that special difference maker who puts you over the top. Unless things seem to be turning sour with Bell, he’s your guy. Montgomery and Crowell are nice players. I think they’re top-10 backs who deserve to be chosen late in the 3rd round in your draft. But Bell projects to be 110 points better than those guys. If you let Bell go, you’re probably costing yourself about 80 points in the first round. That lets you pick up an extra 50 bonus points with a late-round pick, but you still come out behind. And I’m guessing you might want to draft Crowell or Montgomery in the 4th or 5th round when they’re still sitting there. In a deeper, 12-team team league (with the vast majority of the talent being allocated), we might be able to make the case for keeping one of the late-round guys, but I’m pretty sure it should be Bell for you.
Question 9
I have a choice to make for a keeper going into the 2017 draft. Keep Crowell in exchange for a 6th round pick; or Keep Mariota and give up a 13th round pick. I like both but I can only have one. I'd appreciate your advice. Thanks!
Brian Brady (Vienna, WV)
I don’t have the exact league specs, but I believe Crowell should be one of the first 15 players chosen in a standard-type league. Mariota is an up-and-comer, but I have him as just the 85th player. In a lot of leagues I’m in, folks don’t want to pay for quarterbacking, with players like Mariota going outside the top 100. If you’re in the 12-team kind of leagues that I’m in, I’ll bet you can get either Mariota or a Mariota-type quarterback in the 9th round. Strange to say, with the Browns being one of the league’s worst teams, but sign me up for Crowell.
Question 10
I was listening to your podcast discussing NYG receiver Shepard. Ian and Justin were impressed with his past season and expect more in 2017. I am curious if you ever did any articles the 'second WR on teams?' How likely is it they are top 20 in the league. The cases with 1A 1B receivers seem rare. Recently Green Bay has done it and I believe L Fitzgerald had a few seasons with Boldin. **Do the top 5 WR2's often crack the top 15 WR1s?**
Yaesha Newman ()
I don’t think anybody would select Shepard with the hope that he would be a top-15 receiver. When I identified him as the best sleeper in the NFC East (just before he injured his ankle), I was doing so under the premise that Shepard won’t be one of the first 40 wide receivers chosen but has a chance to put up top-30 numbers. That happens often. In the last 10 years, 70 wide receivers have ranked in the top 30 at their position while being the second banana on their own team. Ten of those receivers ranked in the top 10 (in bold); 31 ranked in the top 20 (I’ve got black dots on those ranking 11th to 20th).
| SECOND RECEIVERS IN THE TOP 30 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Points | Rank |
| 2007 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 112 | 1,143 | 12 | 187.7 | 7 |
| 2007 | • Wes Welker, N.E. | 112 | 1,175 | 8 | 168.9 | 11 |
| 2007 | • Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 71 | 853 | 9 | 140.7 | 19 |
| 2007 | Nate Burleson, Sea. | 50 | 694 | 11 | 135.8 | 22 |
| 2007 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 71 | 732 | 7 | 118.3 | 30 |
| 2008 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 89 | 1,038 | 11 | 176.5 | 7 |
| 2008 | • Eddie Royal, Den. | 91 | 980 | 5 | 140.9 | 19 |
| 2008 | • Kevin Walter, Hou. | 60 | 899 | 8 | 140.2 | 20 |
| 2008 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 111 | 1,165 | 3 | 139.1 | 21 |
| 2008 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 74 | 1,012 | 5 | 131.6 | 23 |
| 2008 | Muhsin Muhammad, Car. | 65 | 923 | 5 | 122.3 | 28 |
| 2008 | Steve Breaston, Ariz. | 77 | 1,006 | 3 | 119.4 | 29 |
| 2008 | Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ | 71 | 858 | 5 | 118.6 | 30 |
| 2009 | • Wes Welker, N.E. | 123 | 1,348 | 4 | 162.4 | 12 |
| 2009 | • Hines Ward, Pitt. | 95 | 1,167 | 6 | 152.7 | 16 |
| 2009 | • Percy Harvin, Minn. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 140.5 | 20 |
| 2009 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 45 | 722 | 10 | 140.4 | 21 |
| 2009 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 68 | 1,113 | 4 | 139.3 | 22 |
| 2009 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 84 | 1,024 | 5 | 133.6 | 24 |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 39 | 756 | 6 | 116.4 | 27 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 6 | 115.8 | 28 |
| 2009 | Mario Manningham, NYG | 57 | 822 | 5 | 112.2 | 29 |
| 2009 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 60 | 676 | 7 | 109.7 | 30 |
| 2010 | • Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 70 | 964 | 10 | 160.0 | 14 |
| 2010 | • Mario Manningham, NYG | 60 | 944 | 9 | 148.6 | 17 |
| 2010 | Lance Moore, N.O. | 66 | 763 | 8 | 124.3 | 26 |
| 2010 | Derrick Mason, Balt. | 61 | 802 | 7 | 122.2 | 28 |
| 2011 | • Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 76 | 1,192 | 7 | 161.2 | 12 |
| 2011 | • Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 8 | 149.5 | 17 |
| 2011 | • Greg Jennings, G.B. | 67 | 949 | 9 | 148.9 | 18 |
| 2011 | • Dez Bryant, Dall. | 63 | 928 | 9 | 147.3 | 19 |
| 2011 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 69 | 1,108 | 3 | 132.9 | 23 |
| 2011 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 75 | 960 | 4 | 120.0 | 29 |
| 2012 | Eric Decker, Den. | 85 | 1,064 | 13 | 184.4 | 7 |
| 2012 | Roddy White, Atl. | 92 | 1,351 | 7 | 177.1 | 10 |
| 2012 | • James Jones, G.B. | 64 | 784 | 14 | 162.4 | 17 |
| 2012 | • Mike Williams, T.B. | 63 | 996 | 9 | 153.6 | 18 |
| 2012 | Lance Moore, N.O. | 65 | 1,041 | 6 | 140.1 | 21 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 8 | 137.0 | 23 |
| 2012 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 66 | 943 | 6 | 130.3 | 26 |
| 2012 | Brandon Lloyd, N.E. | 74 | 911 | 5 | 121.1 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 120.8 | 29 |
| 2012 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 49 | 745 | 7 | 118.5 | 30 |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 89 | 1,421 | 7 | 196.6 | 8 |
| 2013 | Eric Decker, Den. | 87 | 1,288 | 11 | 194.8 | 9 |
| 2013 | Wes Welker, Den. | 73 | 778 | 10 | 137.8 | 21 |
| 2013 | Marvin Jones, Cin. | 51 | 712 | 10 | 137.7 | 22 |
| 2013 | Riley Cooper, Phil. | 47 | 835 | 8 | 135.5 | 23 |
| 2013 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 65 | 1,041 | 5 | 134.1 | 24 |
| 2013 | Brian Hartline, Mia. | 76 | 1,016 | 4 | 125.6 | 26 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 91 | 1,287 | 12 | 206.4 | 5 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101 | 1,404 | 9 | 200.8 | 7 |
| 2014 | • Calvin Johnson, Det. | 71 | 1,077 | 8 | 155.7 | 15 |
| 2014 | • Steve Smith Sr., Balt. | 79 | 1,065 | 6 | 142.5 | 20 |
| 2014 | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 92 | 972 | 5 | 136.6 | 24 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 135.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Roddy White, Atl. | 80 | 921 | 7 | 134.1 | 27 |
| 2014 | Eddie Royal, S.D. | 62 | 778 | 7 | 121.2 | 30 |
| 2015 | • Eric Decker, NYJ | 80 | 1,027 | 12 | 174.7 | 11 |
| 2015 | • Allen Hurns, Jac. | 64 | 1,031 | 10 | 163.1 | 15 |
| 2015 | • Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 76 | 1,135 | 6 | 152.4 | 18 |
| 2015 | John Brown, Ariz. | 65 | 1,003 | 7 | 144.5 | 22 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 142.7 | 23 |
| 2015 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 79 | 829 | 7 | 129.9 | 29 |
| 2015 | Rueben Randle, NYG | 57 | 797 | 8 | 127.7 | 30 |
| 2016 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 75 | 997 | 12 | 173.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 167.7 | 9 |
| 2016 | • Amari Cooper, Oak. | 83 | 1,153 | 5 | 149.3 | 13 |
| 2016 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 79 | 1,032 | 5 | 133.6 | 23 |
| 2016 | Kenny Stills, Mia. | 42 | 726 | 9 | 126.6 | 29 |
Question 11
Is there anyway you can put out who will be doing the Kick Returns and Punt Returns for each team. maybe put a KR PR next to their name on the rankings or even better on the weekly Depth Chart Rosters? Thanks for all your help.
Richard Spinella (North Providence, RI)
I will be able to address kick returners more accurately after seeing the first two weeks of the preseason. For now, if you want to see those guys, I suggest going to the stat download (in Excel – find it in the “YOUR STUFF” area). In there, you’ve got access to my top 100 running backs and top 100 receivers. You can then look at which of those 200 players project to have some potential to score on kick returns. I see seven who should play extensively in the field and also probably return kickers regularly: Tyreek Hill, Jamison Crowder, Tavon Austin, Tyler Lockett, Darren Sproles, Chester Rogers and Ameer Abdullah.
Question 12
I've got the sixth pick in a 12-team league where RBs fly off the Board due to scoring system and owner tendencies. First two rounds will appropriately be all RBs and WRs. I anticipate first five picks will be D. Johnson, L. Bell, E. Elliott, A. Brown, & L. McCoy. Was leaning toward Julio Jones at pick 1.06 until I projected the players that will come off the board until my next pick. After selecting Jones in the first round, I would feel compelled to pick a RB at pick 2.07 but feel it's too early for Crowell, and am not overly excited with grabbing L. Miller, Fournette, etc. If I go WR again and take Bryant or Cooper, I will be chasing RB value for the rest of the draft. My conclusion is that I need to take Melvin Gordon as my first pick instead of Julio Jones in order to maintain better balance and flexibility throughout the remainder of the draft. Is my logic sound?
STEVEN MATH (Austin, TX)
You need to take a running back somewhere in there. In a standard-scoring league, I’ve got running backs going with all but one of the first seven picks, with Jordan Howard and Gordon being the two guys you’d be consider at 1.06. It gets harder in a PPR format, where I think you would go with Jones and slip in Crowell or Montgomery in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Question 13
I was interested to see that the delta between the stud WR's and next tier was much narrower last year vs. the year before. Do you think that's an anomaly or trend?
Tom Duggan (Califon, NJ)
I’m not sure exactly what you’re getting at, but I can take a stab at it. Look at the chart below. It includes the 2nd-best wide receiver each year, comparing him to the 10th-best of the same season. Included are the pairs from the last 20 years. Of the five biggest spreads, four of them occurred in the 1998-2003 seasons. Just one since then (when Julio Jones and Antonio Brown both had huge seasons in 2015). Black dots on those pairs. If you look at the five #10 WRs who have been the closest (in bold), they’ve been spread out pretty well. When Rice-Sharpe-Rison-Pickens were ripping up defenses in the ‘90s, I think there was a bigger stat spread, but I don’t see any trend that should be causing us to alter our draft boards.
| WIDE RECEIVER (STAT SPREAD) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | #2 WR | Pts | #10 WR | Pts | Pct |
| 1997 | Antonio Freeman | 196.3 | Irving Fryar | 167.6 | 85% |
| 1998 | Antonio Freeman | 228.9 | •Ed McCaffrey | 167.3 | 73% |
| 1999 | Randy Moss | 222.6 | Muhsin Muhammad | 173.3 | 78% |
| 2000 | Terrell Owens | 226.2 | Cris Carter | 181.4 | 80% |
| 2001 | Terrell Owens | 239.3 | •Derrick Mason | 174.8 | 73% |
| 2002 | Hines Ward | 225.1 | •Donald Driver | 167.4 | 74% |
| 2003 | Torry Holt | 242.1 | •Darrell Jackson | 167.7 | 69% |
| 2004 | Javon Walker | 210.2 | Donald Driver | 177.2 | 84% |
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald | 205.0 | Terry Glenn | 164.5 | 80% |
| 2006 | Terrell Owens | 198.0 | Roy Williams | 173.2 | 87% |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens | 226.0 | Plaxico Burress | 174.5 | 77% |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson | 207.0 | Randy Moss | 166.8 | 81% |
| 2009 | Randy Moss | 206.4 | Vincent Jackson | 171.8 | 83% |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe | 206.6 | Stevie Johnson | 167.3 | 81% |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson | 216.3 | Vincent Jackson | 169.7 | 78% |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall | 216.6 | Roddy White | 177.1 | 82% |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas | 227.0 | DeSean Jackson | 187.4 | 83% |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas | 229.9 | T.Y. Hilton | 178.5 | 78% |
| 2015 | Julio Jones | 241.1 | •Calvin Johnson | 175.4 | 73% |
| 2016 | Mike Evans | 208.1 | Doug Baldwin | 159.0 | 76% |