Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Will Tavon Austin morph into another DeSean Jackson? Is Corey Clement a super sleeper? Scoring systems including first downs. And players to avoid in the second round.
Question 1
I don't understand your projection for Tavon Austin, Ian. Not in terms of how much he'll do, but how he'll do it. You have him playing in the slot again this year, but that looks to be Kupp's job now. McVay has talked about making Austin his deep threat, which is how he likes to structure his passing game, and I don't see any competition for that role. Sure Tavon could bust at that, but he then wouldn't be busting at 9.5 per catch. Why do you see McVay keeping him in the slot receiver position, Ian?
Richard Loppnow (Ephrata, WA)
I like Cooper Kupp. He comes from a small school but was very productive in games against Pac-12 schools: 40 catches for 716 yards and 11 touchdowns in four games. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the Rams’ most productive receiver. But let’s take a look at him in the preseason games first. He’s a third-round pick, and he ran only 4.62 at the combine. Premature, I think, to pencil him in for the slot role. Austin’s been used in a slot-type role for four years, so until I see more tangible evidence of him running more downfield routes, I’m expecting he’ll be used in a similar kind of way. With most outside vertical receivers, you tend to see larger guys with longer strides who build up speed (while also providing a larger target). I’m not confident Austin can develop into another DeSean Jackson or Taylor Gabriel.
Question 2
I was thumbing through the Athlon NFL Draft magazine from April and noticed that one of the running back prospects they ranked highly – higher than Perine and Mack, among others - was the 225-pounder from Wisconsin, Corey Clement. Obviously teams didn't agree with Athlon's high assessment because he went undrafted, but he landed in a pretty good spot with the Eagles. Any thoughts on the guy? Since Blount is basically a one-year rental and many think Smallwood is too, err, small to be a full-time back, could Clement have an opportunity there? I don't watch college ball so I really don't know anything about him; just looking for sleepers. He's got a great highlight reel but I guess they all do.
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
Clement went over 160 yards last year against both Ohio State and Penn State. I’m guessing those games influenced the writer to slot him favorably. And maybe he’ll pan out – you never know. He had durability problems at Wisconsin and broke his hand in an elevator fight, maybe contributing to him going undrafted. But he ran awfully slowly at the combine, clocking in at 4.68. And outside of those two big games, Clement averaged only 3.9 yards per carry last year. I re-watched all of his carries from the Penn State game and I thought he looked pretty ordinary, outside of a 68-yard touchdown (in which he seemed to be running faster than 4.68). Eagles have Blount, Smallwood, Donnel Pumphrey and Darren Sproles, so if Clement is going to make that team, he’ll need to be some kind of factor on special teams, and I don’t know if he can do that. More likely, I think, to wind up on the practice squad. In the past 10 years, only six undrafted running backs have run for over 600 yards in their first year: Blount, Chris Ivory, Selvin Young, Thomas Rawls, Rob Kelley and Isaiah Crowell.
Question 3
Finding it hard to get excited about some of the players going in the first and second rounds of early mock drafts. LeSean McCoy. Mike Evans. Isaiah Crowell. T.Y. Hilton. My league gives yardage points, but it's not standard scoring, so it tends to slant closer to a TD-only format. I had Evans last year, but I think his value goes down now that Tampa Bay added other weapons on offense. McCoy is always listed as questionable on the injury report, and I think he's close to breaking down physically. I have no intention of wasting an early-round pick on Crowell when it's virtually certain the Browns will win five or fewer games. And Hilton isn't a scorer and is way too inconsistent for my tastes. What RBs and WRs would you be targeting in the early rounds, considering my league's scoring method?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
McCoy missed one game last year. In his other 15 games, he was listed as questionable four times. Not guaranteeing he’ll stay healthy (he’s also a guy I’m hoping to avoid), but felt I should set the record straight. If you’re looking for touchdowns, how about Mike Gillislee? New England has scored a league-high 90 rushing touchdowns over the last five years. LeGarrette Blount punched in 18 last year. Gillislee should have that role now.
Question 4
What information web sites or publications do you use to keep track of the progress in the 32 team training camps? Thanks for all you and FFI do each year!
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
I like the beat writers in each NFL city. They’re at the practices each day, regularly filing stories – I like in particular the notebook-type items. Most cities have a daily newspaper or two, and ESPN also has many beat-type writers in their network. There are also a handful of national writers who have contacts with a lot of key agents, players and executives, helping them break a lot of stories – Florio, Rapoport, Schefter, Silver, Glazer, King. There’s a lot of good info out there. Key is to be able to properly make sense of it all, knowing what’s important, what’s better left ignored, and how it should be blended with other statistical odds and concepts.
Question 5
Congrats on another year of Fantasy Football Index. It is always one of my yearly rituals to pick up a copy (started in 1998). I was surprised to see in the PPR rankings, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are ranked 5 and 6 overall. I am picking last at 10 in my 10-team league. Do I really go QB on the turn? Most sources don't have QBs ranked until the 20s at the earliest. Can you explain your reasoning a little more?
MICHAEL KOLTON (Green Bay, WI)
Is there going to be demand for quarterbacks in your league? That’s the question. If we’re assuming 28 quarterbacks will be selected, then the good ones will run out. You look at how much better Rodgers and Brady will be than the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz, and it makes sense to select them. If you’re in a 10-team league, with nobody selecting more than two quarterbacks, than you could safely assume you could select somebody like Carson Palmer or Tyrod Taylor with your last draft pick (as your second quarterback). In 10-team league, the QB market might be oversaturated. In that short of league, it would probably make more sense to wait until pick 3.10 or 4.01 (the 30th and 31st picks) to select Rodgers or Brady.
Question 6
That time of year once again, Ian! I'm sure you've heard of the "Point Per First Down" format that seems to be on the horizon; the theory is it will reverse the WR heavy PPR format, leveling the playing field between WRs & RBs. I am intrigued. I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
First I’ve heard of it. Initially, I’m skeptical. If the goal is to reduce the impact of wide receivers, why not just go back to standard scoring? I don’t like that first downs are a secondary stat. That is, when I tell you that Marshawn Lynch ran for 100 yards or scored 3 TDs, it means something. When I tell you that Stefon Diggs caught 9 passes, I’m speaking the football language that will all understand. But nobody ever says, ‘Did you see the Jacksonville game, Leonard Fournette ran for 8 first downs.’ I spent 10 minutes trying to put together the stats for last year, but it got too complicated (trying to blend fantasy points, rushing first downs and receiving first downs). Looks like running backs would get a big boost – maybe too much of a boost. I see 21 running backs ran for at least 40 first downs last year. That’s not including their catches – just running plays. David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and LeVeon Bell were monsters in this format last year, with over 90 first downs each.
Question 7
Hey, just trying to set up my scoring for the cheat sheet and it said if I needed help to "write to the mailbag." Not sure if this is the right one, but I took a shot. I'm trying to get it so that WRs and RBs will be taken more frequently and earlier than the preset leagues. I've tried messing around with the auction values like it says to try, but I can't get it to look like I think it should. For example, I got the QBs lower (6th round) but now the Defenses and Kickers are creeping up the list.
Andrew Becker ()
In the auction section, you have the ability to adjust the supply-demand numbers. Suppose, for example, you don’t like seeing so many quarterbacks showing up in the first four rounds. Currently, we might be working off the assumption that 24 quarterbacks will be drafted, and 17 of them go for more than the $1 minimum in an auction (stick with me here, even if you are not using an auction). Change 17 quarterbacks to 10 quarterbacks, and all those high-level quarterbacks – Rodgers, Brady, Brees – will move down in the overall. When you change that number (from 17 down to 10), what you’re saying is that you believe you’ll be able to get a quarterback like Rivers, Carr, Manning or Cousins pretty much for nothing in the later rounds. Similarly, if you want to make RBs and WRs worth MORE, you can increase the demand at those positions. Currently, it’s probably set up so that perhaps 70 players are being chosen at those positions, with about 46 going for more than the $1 minimum. Change the 46 to 55 and you’ll see all RB and WR move up on the overall draft board.
Question 8
Love the magazine. Can you please reprint the "Also" section under rookie quarterbacks? My magazine is missing at least a couple sentences on the jump between pages 19-20. Thanks.
JOHN GRUPP (Pittsburgh, PA)
Sorry about that. That was an error that occurred in the final layout stages. Everything was in place. Something got added on page 19 (I don’t recall what), pushing a couple dozen words off page 19. But page 20 wasn’t properly update, causing those words to be lost in the ether. Text should have read as follows (with the missing words in italics): The Bills aren’t firmly committed to Tyrod Taylor. If he fails to progress, next up could be fifth-rounder Nathan Peterman, a rare rookie who played a pro-style offense in college. But he doesn’t have a big arm or much mobility. He’ll battle Cardale Jones for the backup job. … Davis Webb was beat out by Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech two years ago, eventually transferring to California. Like the guy he followed there (Jared Goff) he’s a pocket passer with good size (6-5, 229) and a strong arm. The Giants selected him in the third round as a possible successor to Eli Manning.