I will be interested to see what Allen Hurns looks like tonight in the Jaguars-Bucs games. What kind of condition is he in? And will he even make Jacksonville’s 53-man roster?
Hurns put up nice numbers two years ago, finishing with 1,031 yards and 10 TDs. And he’s shown some ability to get behind defenses for big plays; he’s caught 5 TDs over 40 yards in his first three years.
But Hurns doesn’t have great hands. Among wide receivers with at least 100 catches over the last three years, only four have dropped a higher percentage of passes. And Hurns is tied to a terrible contract. He was able to cash in after the nice stats in 2015, so he’s sitting at $7 million per year – one of the top 20 receivers in the league. He’s not worth half of that.
The Jaguars seem to have settled on Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee as their starting receivers. Lee has a high ankle sprain that could sideline him until mid-September, maybe putting Hurns in the starting lineup for first couple of games. But I’m not sure he’s even going to be on the roster.
The Jaguars used Rashad Greene as their slot receiver in the first game. I think they want him there. They’d like to get him going in that kind of a role (he’s a shorter, quicker, slot-type guy), and Greene will be their punt returner (could be a top-10 option in that capacity). Jacksonville also drafted Dede Westbrook, who caught a long touchdown at New England and will be their fourth or fifth receiver.
Also factor in that the Jaguars are playing a different style of offense this year. They want to run the ball, using the wide receivers less. So to me, it looks very iffy they would want to pay $7 million to a lesser backup who doesn’t contribute on special teams.
In a typical fantasy format, I wouldn’t consider making Hurns one of the first 100 wide receivers drafted. Maybe he gets traded or released, winding up with another team. Best scenario would probably be for him to somehow land up in Arizona or Buffalo. The Bills need a deep threat, and Tyrod Taylor can throw those balls. With Arizona, two of their best receivers are little guys who have problems staying healthy (John Brown, J.J. Nelson). But I don’t see Hurns putting up top-60 receiving numbers anywhere this year.
| WIDE RECEIVER DROPS (2014-16) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Drop | Pct |
| Pierre Garcon | 219 | 2 | .9% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 256 | 3 | 1.2% |
| Keenan Allen | 150 | 2 | 1.3% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 279 | 4 | 1.4% |
| Danny Amendola | 115 | 2 | 1.7% |
| Stefon Diggs | 136 | 3 | 2.2% |
| Jeremy Maclin | 216 | 5 | 2.3% |
| Jamison Crowder | 126 | 3 | 2.3% |
| Andrew Hawkins | 123 | 3 | 2.4% |
| Antonio Brown | 371 | 9 | 2.4% |
| Doug Baldwin | 238 | 6 | 2.5% |
| Willie Snead | 141 | 4 | 2.8% |
| Dontrelle Inman | 105 | 3 | 2.8% |
| Brandin Cooks | 215 | 6 | 2.8% |
| Cole Beasley | 164 | 5 | 3.0% |
| Jordy Nelson | 195 | 6 | 3.1% |
| Jarvis Landry | 288 | 9 | 3.1% |
| Kendall Wright | 122 | 4 | 3.2% |
| Golden Tate | 280 | 9 | 3.2% |
| Jeremy Kerley | 118 | 4 | 3.3% |
| A.J. Green | 221 | 8 | 3.6% |
| Terrance Williams | 133 | 5 | 3.6% |
| Kamar Aiken | 128 | 5 | 3.8% |
| Jermaine Kearse | 128 | 5 | 3.8% |
| Harry Douglas | 102 | 4 | 3.8% |
| Markus Wheaton | 101 | 4 | 3.8% |
| Donte Moncrief | 126 | 5 | 3.8% |
| DeSean Jackson | 142 | 6 | 4.1% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 265 | 11 | 4.2% |
| Eric Decker | 163 | 7 | 4.3% |
| Julio Jones | 323 | 14 | 4.3% |
| Calvin Johnson | 159 | 7 | 4.4% |
| Allen Robinson | 201 | 9 | 4.5% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 288 | 13 | 4.5% |
| Vincent Jackson | 118 | 6 | 4.8% |
| Chris Hogan | 115 | 6 | 5.0% |
| Brandon LaFell | 175 | 9 | 5.1% |
| Rueben Randle | 128 | 7 | 5.2% |
| Randall Cobb | 230 | 12 | 5.2% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 191 | 10 | 5.2% |
| John Brown | 152 | 8 | 5.3% |
| Kenny Britt | 152 | 8 | 5.3% |
| Robert Woods | 163 | 9 | 5.5% |
| Mike Wallace | 178 | 10 | 5.6% |
| Kenny Stills | 132 | 8 | 5.7% |
| Eddie Royal | 132 | 8 | 5.7% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 242 | 14 | 5.8% |
| Sammy Watkins | 153 | 9 | 5.9% |
| Anquan Boldin | 219 | 13 | 5.9% |
| James Jones | 123 | 8 | 6.1% |
| Andre Johnson | 135 | 9 | 6.3% |
| Dez Bryant | 169 | 11 | 6.5% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 148 | 10 | 6.8% |
| Roddy White | 123 | 9 | 6.8% |
| Rishard Matthews | 120 | 9 | 7.0% |
| Travis Benjamin | 133 | 10 | 7.0% |
| Steve Smith Sr. | 195 | 14 | 7.2% |
| Jordan Matthews | 225 | 17 | 7.6% |
| Davante Adams | 163 | 13 | 8.0% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 136 | 12 | 8.1% |
| Julian Edelman | 251 | 21 | 8.4% |
| Amari Cooper | 155 | 13 | 8.4% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 306 | 26 | 8.5% |
| Cecil Shorts III | 106 | 10 | 8.6% |
| Michael Floyd | 136 | 13 | 8.7% |
| Marqise Lee | 115 | 11 | 8.7% |
| Marques Colston | 104 | 10 | 8.8% |
| Tavon Austin | 141 | 13 | 9.2% |
| Mike Evans | 238 | 22 | 9.2% |
| Allen Hurns | 150 | 14 | 9.3% |
| Brandon Marshall | 229 | 22 | 9.6% |
| Torrey Smith | 102 | 11 | 9.7% |
| Michael Crabtree | 242 | 24 | 9.9% |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | 112 | 18 | 13.8% |
—Ian Allan