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Win here.

Ian Allan

All 256 forecast

Patriots, Falcons could be headed for Super rematch

It’s early; too soon to put anything in stone. But we’ve seen the general lay of the land with these teams now, and we can sketch out which teams will be standing at the end of the season.

This is an exercise of forecasting and looking at the schedules. You go through each of the 256 games, deciding on a winner, and then total up the results at the end.

The first 31 games, of course, are already in the books. For each of the remaining 225, I’ve given each team some portion of a win. If a game looks like a slam dunk – like the Jets at New England – I give the Patriots a 95 percent chance of winning. That is, if they played 20 times, I’m figuring New England would go 19-1 (which might be overly conservative). But that’s as high as I go, given the reality that injuries and turnovers occur.

If a game is too close to call – like Atlanta at Detroit this week – I just gave each team half of a win and move on. If a team is only a slight favorite (like Oakland at Washington on Sunday night) I gave the Raiders .55 of a win, and Washington the remaining .45 share.

After doing that for all of the games, I get the following win totals for each team …

PROJECTED WINS
TeamWins
New England11.75
Pittsburgh11.60
Atlanta11.15
Seattle11.10
Kansas City10.90
Green Bay10.65
Denver10.55
Tennessee10.45
Oakland10.05
Detroit9.55
Baltimore9.50
Dallas9.30
Philadelphia9.25
Minnesota9.05
Carolina8.95
Tampa Bay8.80
Miami8.35
Jacksonville6.90
Washington6.85
Arizona6.85
Houston6.55
San Francisco6.50
Buffalo6.15
New Orleans5.90
NY Giants5.85
LA Rams5.80
LA Chargers5.80
Cincinnati5.75
Indianapolis5.05
Chicago4.55
Cleveland3.60
NY Jets2.95

That’s New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Kansas City winning the divisions on the AFC side, with Denver and Oakland as the wild cards. Baltimore and Miami have the best chance of winning 8-plus games without making the cut.

In the NFC, Atlanta, Seattle, Green Bay and Dallas are the division winners. The Cowboys just barely edge Philadelphia, with Detroit getting the other wild card spot. I have three NFC teams with a good chance of winning 9 games without making the playoffs – Minnesota, Carolina and Tampa Bay.

That’s just one take, of course. No doubt you’ll see some of the games differently, and no doubt there were be some key injuries along the way, affecting a bunch of games.

But that’s how I’ve got them for now, and the week-by-week breakdown appears below.

WIN PROBABILITIES FOR REMAINING GAMES
WkVisitorHome
3Pittsburgh 80%at Chicago 20%
3Miami 80%at NY Jets 20%
3Denver 65%at Buffalo 35%
3Kansas City 60%at LA Chargers 40%
3Dallas 60%at Arizona 40%
3Oakland 55%at Washington 45%
3Baltimore 55%v. Jacksonville 45%
3Atlanta 50%at Detroit 50%
3Tampa Bay 40%at Minnesota 60%
3Seattle 40%at Tennessee 60%
3Cleveland 40%at Indianapolis 60%
3LA Rams 35%at San Francisco 65%
3NY Giants 25%at Philadelphia 75%
3New Orleans 25%at Carolina 75%
3Cincinnati 15%at Green Bay 85%
3Houston 10%at New England 90%
4Tennessee 65%at Houston 35%
4Miami 55%v. New Orleans 45%
4Cincinnati 55%at Cleveland 45%
4Pittsburgh 50%at Baltimore 50%
4Philadelphia 50%at LA Chargers 50%
4Jacksonville 50%at NY Jets 50%
4San Francisco 45%at Arizona 55%
4Oakland 40%at Denver 60%
4Detroit 40%at Minnesota 60%
4NY Giants 35%at Tampa Bay 65%
4Washington 20%at Kansas City 80%
4Carolina 20%at New England 80%
4LA Rams 15%at Dallas 85%
4Buffalo 15%at Atlanta 85%
4Chicago 10%at Green Bay 90%
4Indianapolis 5%at Seattle 95%
5Seattle 75%at LA Rams 25%
5Kansas City 65%at Houston 35%
5New England 60%at Tampa Bay 40%
5Minnesota 60%at Chicago 40%
5Tennessee 50%at Miami 50%
5San Francisco 50%at Indianapolis 50%
5Green Bay 50%at Dallas 50%
5NY Jets 45%at Cleveland 55%
5Carolina 40%at Detroit 60%
5Buffalo 40%at Cincinnati 60%
5LA Chargers 35%at NY Giants 65%
5Baltimore 30%at Oakland 70%
5Arizona 15%at Philadelphia 85%
5Jacksonville 10%at Pittsburgh 90%
6New England 95%at NY Jets 5%
6Tampa Bay 55%at Arizona 45%
6Philadelphia 50%at Carolina 50%
6Green Bay 50%at Minnesota 50%
6Detroit 50%at New Orleans 50%
6Pittsburgh 45%at Kansas City 55%
6LA Rams 40%at Jacksonville 60%
6San Francisco 35%at Washington 65%
6Miami 25%at Atlanta 75%
6Cleveland 25%at Houston 75%
6NY Giants 20%at Denver 80%
6Chicago 20%at Baltimore 80%
6LA Chargers 15%at Oakland 85%
6Indianapolis 15%at Tennessee 85%
7Tennessee 90%at Cleveland 10%
7Seattle 75%at NY Giants 25%
7Dallas 60%at San Francisco 40%
7Tampa Bay 55%at Buffalo 45%
7Denver 55%at LA Chargers 45%
7Carolina 55%at Chicago 45%
7Jacksonville 50%at Indianapolis 50%
7LA Rams 45%v. Arizona 55%
7Kansas City 40%at Oakland 60%
7Baltimore 40%at Minnesota 60%
7Atlanta 35%at New England 65%
7Washington 25%at Philadelphia 75%
7New Orleans 15%at Green Bay 85%
7Cincinnati 15%at Pittsburgh 85%
7NY Jets 10%at Miami 90%
8Atlanta 95%at NY Jets 5%
8Oakland 60%at Buffalo 40%
8Dallas 60%at Washington 40%
8Pittsburgh 50%at Detroit 50%
8Miami 40%at Baltimore 60%
8Indianapolis 40%at Cincinnati 60%
8Denver 40%at Kansas City 60%
8Carolina 40%at Tampa Bay 60%
8Chicago 35%at New Orleans 65%
8San Francisco 25%at Philadelphia 75%
8Cleveland 20%v. Minnesota 80%
8Houston 15%at Seattle 85%
8LA Chargers 10%at New England 90%
9Buffalo 60%at NY Jets 40%
9Tampa Bay 55%at New Orleans 45%
9Oakland 55%at Miami 45%
9Denver 50%at Philadelphia 50%
9Atlanta 50%at Carolina 50%
9Kansas City 45%at Dallas 55%
9Cincinnati 45%at Jacksonville 55%
9Indianapolis 40%at Houston 60%
9Arizona 40%at San Francisco 60%
9LA Rams 35%at NY Giants 65%
9Baltimore 35%at Tennessee 65%
9Detroit 30%at Green Bay 70%
9Washington 15%at Seattle 85%
10Pittsburgh 90%at Indianapolis 10%
10Green Bay 80%at Chicago 20%
10Seattle 65%at Arizona 35%
10New England 55%at Denver 45%
10Minnesota 55%at Washington 45%
10NY Giants 50%at San Francisco 50%
10LA Chargers 50%at Jacksonville 50%
10Miami 45%at Carolina 55%
10Houston 45%at LA Rams 55%
10New Orleans 40%at Buffalo 60%
10Dallas 35%at Atlanta 65%
10Cincinnati 20%at Tennessee 80%
10Cleveland 15%at Detroit 85%
10NY Jets 10%at Tampa Bay 90%
11Detroit 60%at Chicago 40%
11Kansas City 55%at NY Giants 45%
11Washington 50%at New Orleans 50%
11Jacksonville 50%at Cleveland 50%
11Tampa Bay 45%at Miami 55%
11Buffalo 40%at LA Chargers 60%
11Atlanta 40%at Seattle 60%
11Arizona 40%at Houston 60%
11Tennessee 35%at Pittsburgh 65%
11Philadelphia 35%at Dallas 65%
11Oakland 35%v. New England 65%
11Baltimore 25%at Green Bay 75%
11LA Rams 15%at Minnesota 85%
11Cincinnati 15%at Denver 85%
12Carolina 70%at NY Jets 30%
12Seattle 60%at San Francisco 40%
12New Orleans 50%at LA Rams 50%
12Tennessee 45%at Indianapolis 55%
12NY Giants 40%at Washington 60%
12Minnesota 40%at Detroit 60%
12Jacksonville 40%at Arizona 60%
12Green Bay 40%at Pittsburgh 60%
12Denver 40%at Oakland 60%
12Tampa Bay 25%at Atlanta 75%
12Houston 25%at Baltimore 75%
12Cleveland 20%at Cincinnati 80%
12Chicago 20%at Philadelphia 80%
12Miami 15%at New England 85%
12LA Chargers 15%at Dallas 85%
12Buffalo 15%at Kansas City 85%
13Kansas City 90%at NY Jets 10%
13New England 85%at Buffalo 15%
13Pittsburgh 60%at Cincinnati 40%
13Denver 55%at Miami 45%
13Carolina 55%at New Orleans 45%
13San Francisco 45%at Chicago 55%
13Detroit 45%at Baltimore 55%
13LA Rams 40%at Arizona 60%
13Indianapolis 40%at Jacksonville 60%
13Philadelphia 30%at Seattle 70%
13Minnesota 30%at Atlanta 70%
13Tampa Bay 25%at Green Bay 75%
13Washington 20%at Dallas 80%
13NY Giants 20%at Oakland 80%
13Houston 20%at Tennessee 80%
13Cleveland 20%at LA Chargers 80%
14Green Bay 95%at Cleveland 5%
14Seattle 85%at Jacksonville 15%
14New England 65%at Miami 35%
14Tennessee 60%at Arizona 40%
14Philadelphia 60%at LA Rams 40%
14Dallas 55%at NY Giants 45%
14Washington 45%at LA Chargers 55%
14San Francisco 45%at Houston 55%
14Minnesota 45%at Carolina 55%
14Oakland 40%at Kansas City 60%
14Detroit 40%at Tampa Bay 60%
14Indianapolis 35%at Buffalo 65%
14Chicago 35%at Cincinnati 65%
14Baltimore 25%at Pittsburgh 75%
14New Orleans 15%at Atlanta 85%
14NY Jets 5%at Denver 95%
15Denver 75%at Indianapolis 25%
15Baltimore 75%at Cleveland 25%
15Tennessee 60%at San Francisco 40%
15Philadelphia 55%at NY Giants 45%
15New England 55%at Pittsburgh 45%
15Miami 55%at Buffalo 45%
15Atlanta 55%at Tampa Bay 45%
15Green Bay 50%at Carolina 50%
15Houston 45%at Jacksonville 55%
15Dallas 40%at Oakland 60%
15Arizona 35%at Washington 65%
15Cincinnati 30%at Minnesota 70%
15NY Jets 20%at New Orleans 80%
15LA Chargers 20%at Kansas City 80%
15Chicago 20%at Detroit 80%
15LA Rams 15%at Seattle 85%
16Pittsburgh 70%at Houston 30%
16LA Chargers 60%at NY Jets 40%
16Atlanta 60%at New Orleans 40%
16Detroit 55%at Cincinnati 45%
16Denver 55%at Washington 45%
16Oakland 50%at Philadelphia 50%
16NY Giants 50%at Arizona 50%
16Tampa Bay 45%at Carolina 55%
16Seattle 45%at Dallas 55%
16Jacksonville 35%at San Francisco 65%
16Minnesota 30%at Green Bay 70%
16Miami 30%at Kansas City 70%
16Indianapolis 25%at Baltimore 75%
16Cleveland 25%at Chicago 75%
16LA Rams 15%at Tennessee 85%
16Buffalo 10%at New England 90%
17Oakland 55%at LA Chargers 45%
17Green Bay 50%at Detroit 50%
17Washington 45%at NY Giants 55%
17San Francisco 45%at LA Rams 55%
17Kansas City 45%at Denver 55%
17Houston 45%at Indianapolis 55%
17Dallas 45%at Philadelphia 55%
17Cincinnati 30%at Baltimore 70%
17Buffalo 30%at Miami 70%
17New Orleans 25%at Tampa Bay 75%
17Carolina 25%at Atlanta 75%
17Chicago 20%at Minnesota 80%
17Jacksonville 15%at Tennessee 85%
17Arizona 15%at Seattle 85%
17NY Jets 5%at New England 95%
17Cleveland 5%at Pittsburgh 95%

Fantasy Index