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Ian Allan

An early look at Jon Gruden

Did Raiders land one of the league's top half-dozen offensive coaches?

Jon Gruden is back in the NFL. Now what? It’s fun to listen to him toss around phrases like “War Daddies”, “Spider 2 Y Banana” and “Taking the cheese”, but is he actually an offensive guru? He’s been out of the game for nine years, and the game’s changed a lot.

Gruden got fired in Tampa Bay, recall. He was there for six years, and all of those teams ranked below-average in scoring. In his first season there, they rode a great defense to a Super Bowl title, but that was the last playoff game he won.

Gruden has been the head coach of 11 NFL teams, and only three of those ranked higher than 18th in scoring.

GRUDEN'S 11 SEASONS AS HEAD COACH
YearTeamW-LPointsRnk
1998Oakland8-828822nd
1999Oakland8-83909th
2000Oakland12-44793rd
2001Oakland10-63994th
2002Tampa Bay12-434618th
2003Tampa Bay7-930118th
2004Tampa Bay5-1130123rd
2005Tampa Bay11-530020th
2006Tampa Bay4-1221131st
2007Tampa Bay9-733420th
2008Tampa Bay9-736119th

Gruden’s teams haven’t tended to have a lot of success running the ball. Of his 11 teams, only four ranked higher than 15th in rushing.

(On this chart below, the “rank” shows not traditional NFL yardage rank but is the fantasy production rank – using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for every rushing touchdown.)

GRUDEN'S 11 TEAMS -- RUSHING PRODUCTION
YearTeamAttYardsAvgTDRnk
1998Oakland4491,7273.8624th
1999Oakland4882,0844.3183rd
2000Oakland5202,4704.8231st
2001Oakland4501,6543.71413th
2002Tampa Bay4141,5573.8630th
2003Tampa Bay4211,6483.9529th
2004Tampa Bay3931,4893.8929th
2005Tampa Bay4571,8264.01315th
2006Tampa Bay4041,5233.8629th
2007Tampa Bay4491,8724.2158th
2008Tampa Bay4511,8374.11317th

Gruden’s teams had more success passing, but they weren’t overwhelmingly successful. Only three of his teams ranked in the top 10 in passing (again, using fantasy production – a mix of yards and touchdowns).

He did have a bunch of teams that ranked 11th-13th in passing, however, so you could say that at least eight of his 11 teams ranked in the top 17 in passing. Only two of his teams ranked outside the top 20 in passing production.

And we must also factor in that Gruden never had a franchise-type quarterback to work with in Tampa Bay. Of course, the jury is still out whether Derek Carr will ever develop into a franchise-type quarterback for the Raiders. Right now, you would have to say Carr is something sort of Rich Gannon (who was very effective for Carr way back when).

GRUDEN'S 11 TEAMS -- PASSING PRODUCTION
YearTeamPctYardsTDIntRnk
1998Oakland54%3,534212513th
1999Oakland59%3,85024149th
2000Oakland60%3,430281111th
2001Oakland66%3,8622794th
2002Tampa Bay61%3,665231017th
2003Tampa Bay62%3,94127225th
2004Tampa Bay66%3,773241813th
2005Tampa Bay62%3,171171425th
2006Tampa Bay55%2,994141830th
2007Tampa Bay64%3,57918820th
2008Tampa Bay63%3,788181313th

For me, with Gruden, I am most intrigued by his history of getting the ball into the hands of his featured receiver. That’s been in place all along, dating back to him working in the ‘90s with Sterling Sharpe in Green Bay and Irving Fryer in Philadelphia.

During his years with the two pirate franchises, Gruden tended to always have a productive flanker. The NFL game has changed, with more spreads and the zone-read and whatnot, but I would expect Gruden will continue to have a productive player at that position. Of all the players on the Oakland roster, Amari Cooper would be the one I would be most excited about.

GRUDEN'S LEADING WIDE RECEIVERS
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
1998Tim Brown, Oak.811,01212.59
1999Tim Brown, Oak.901,34414.96
2000Tim Brown, Oak.761,12814.811
2001Tim Brown, Oak.911,16512.810
2002Keyshawn Johnson, T.B.761,08814.35
2003Keenan McCardell, T.B.841,17414.09
2004Michael Clayton, T.B.801,19314.97
2005Joey Galloway, T.B.831,28715.510
2006Joey Galloway, T.B.621,05717.07
2007Joey Galloway, T.B.571,01417.86
2008Antonio Bryant, T.B.831,24815.07

During his previous run as a head coach, Gruden didn’t tend to have great running backs. Here are his 11 leaders (using fantasy points to select the top one each year).

GRUDEN'S BEST RUNNING BACKS
YearPlayerRunRecYardsTD
1998Napoleon Kaufman, Oak.9211911,1122
1999Tyrone Wheatley, Oak.9361961,13211
2000Tyrone Wheatley, Oak.1,0461561,20210
2001Charlie Garner, Oak.8395781,4173
2002Mike Alstott, T.B.5482427907
2004Michael Pittman, T.B.9263911,31710
2005Cadillac Williams, T.B.1,178811,2596
2006Cadillac Williams, T.B.7981969941
2007Earnest Graham, T.B.8983241,22210
2008Warrick Dunn, T.B.7863301,1162

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index