Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Why was Sammy Watkins ranked so low (only to go for 106 yards and 2 TDs last night)? Are games in England higher scoring? Covering for the Greg Olsen injury. And what are the guidelines for adjusting fantasy scores after discovering statistical errors in previous weeks?
Question 1
You rated Sammy Watkins #66 this week. That’s very low. Therefore I did NOT play him (even though I have him in several leagues) yet he went out and had 2 TDs and over 100 yards – well over 20 points in those leagues! I guess my question, after my frustration, is how do you see him performing moving forward?
JOE VAN KOEVERING (ST PETERSBURG, FL)
The game last night changed my thinking some. Thus far I’ve seen that as a three-man group. I was really impressed by what I saw out of Cooper Kupp – had me wondering if he’d be their best pass catcher. But he definitely looked like their No. 3 last night – wasn’t on the field as much, and he saw only 2 passes. Going forward, I will be ranking Kupp lower. As for the starters, I didn’t see a lot of difference between Watkins and Robert Woods. Watkins had the really cool over-the-shoulder catch for 47 yards and caught the two short touchdowns, but I can’t say with any confidence that he’ll be better than Woods. Woods caught 6 passes for 108 yads, and there were some impressive grabs in there – he looks good. So for guys like yourself who drafted Watkins, a frustrating evening. On the one hand, it’s always nice to see your guys catching passes and touchdowns, increasing their value. But at the same time, I’m not confident Watkins will be a difference-making guy in the final 14 weeks of the season.
Question 2
Our league had a scoring error in Week 1 whereby defenses were incorrectly awarded points. The week passed, and we were on to Week 2. Sunday evening of Week 2, someone noticed the error and the commissioner corrected it. However, he then went back and adjusted scores from Week 1, changing who won in some cases. What's your take on this? Is it best to correct scoring errors as far back as possible or is it best to leave past weeks alone?
Andy Karr (Newton, IA)
In the NFL, once a play begins, the previous play becomes final – no more challenging whether there was a penalty or a player stepped out of bounds. Probably best to use a similar approach in fantasy leagues. Once the first game of the next week starts, the results are locked and final. That’s the way we’ve got it in our league.
Question 3
Does going to London to play have an affect on where a player is ranked? Would you take that into account in a coin-flip situation? I have Javorius Allen, who has been solid for Baltimore, but could go with Chris Thompson who has been scoring for Washington but hasn't had as many touches, although he but has made the most of the ones he has gotten. Who would you go with?
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Games played in England have tended to be higher scoring. There have been 17 played, and there have been an average of 48.4 points scored in those games. That’s almost 4 points higher than the league average over the last 10 years. Of the 27 games, only two have been scoring (those two games involving the Giants, who beat Miami 13-10 in the first UK game, and beat the Rams 17-10 last year. There have five games finishing with 40-43 points, which is a little above average. One with 48 points, which is above-average. More notably, 9 of the 17 games featured at least 52 points, which is what us fantasy guys are hoping for. That said, we must also look at the specific games in question. This week we have Jacksonville-Baltimore – two teams with good defenses and limited offenses – and we have Oakland-Washington. I’m very confident that there will be more scoring in the game played on U.S. soil.
Question 4
Blew a 5th round pick on Greg Olsen. Now he's on IR. His bye is week 11. So doesn't that mean we won't see him in his first game until week 12? And would you really be able to trust him in week 12? Is it worth stashing him for 9 weeks in hopes he might do something in Week 13 and into the playoffs? And given that most 12-team leagues have drafted around 15 to 16 TEs (about 30-40 percent of owners taking a 2nd TE), what kinds of replacements should we be targeting? I'm looking to try and get Coby Fleener and Jesse James. But should I just drop Olsen and try and get a second tight end so that I can stream the position and play the matchups? Nobody is out there on the free agency wire in most leagues that can replace Olsen.
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
I wouldn’t worry about Olsen too much. What did you lose, really? Suppose he hadn’t broken his foot. Where do you think he would have ended up? That offense has really been struggling, and it’s a different system. Olsen caught 2 passes for 18 yards in the opener. Was he going to be a top-5 tight end? Probably not. Was he going to finish in the top 10? Maybe. But as you point out, there are only 16 tight ends that are on rosters in your league. So it’s a near certainty that there is a tight end not currently on a roster who will finish the year with top-10 numbers. If you can find that guy, you’ll probably wind up ahead at the position. I would pick up a pair of players at this position and continue to sift through the prospects, adjusting things along the way. If you get to Week 10 and don’t like what you have, maybe re-sign Olsen at that time.
Question 5
What are your thoughts on Doug Martin when he returns? What percent of touches do you anticipate? Should he be a target for someone right now? Maybe a top-15 RB for remainder of year after his return?
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
Martin returns in Week 5. I expect they’ll put him right back into the starting lineup. He’s their best back. But I don’t know that they’ll run him into the ground. They’ve got some other backs, and I think they’ll get those guys involved – definitely if Martin isn’t playing particularly well. Jacquizz Rodgers probably will get 5-10 touches per game, especially in those early games. Charles Sims is their receiver; he’ll probably play in obvious passing situations. Maybe even Peyton Barber. When Rodgers didn’t play particularly well last week, they worked in Barber, with both of those backs finishing with double-digit carries. I don’t think there will be many weeks where Martin heads into the weekend looking like a top-15 back.
Question 6
Would you recommend picking up Albert Morris if you have Zeke?
Rich Hornstein (Huntington Beach, CA)
I can’t guarantee Morris is the backup. At the team’s official website, Darren McFadden is listed as their second-string back. But in each of the first two games, McFadden has been a healthy scratch, while Morris has been active (and Morris doesn’t play special teams, and he’s not a third-down back). I think Morris most likely is the backup, and I think he should be on rosters in fantasy leagues. If Elliott either gets injured or hit with a six-game suspension, Morris could be a top-10 back while filling in.
Question 7
I'm rolling with the Russell Wilson / Jimmy Graham stack in my season long league. Is it time to move on and start playing the waiver wire to replace them? They've put me in a pretty big hole in my season-long league, and I'm getting cold feet.
Jordan Simons (Belgium, WI)
I expect those guys will come around. Especially Wilson – wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up being a top-5 quarterback. But I wouldn’t be excited about putting either of those guys on the field in Week 3. That offense is frigid right now, and they’ve got a tough matchup at Tennessee. Graham is also a question mark with an ankle injury (I don't think he'll play).
Question 8
Help me figure out Washington’s TE situation. I have Cousins and Reed on my team, which I thought would be a solid combo, until Reed's injury history caught up with him (again). Who should be their best red-zone target? I suspect it isn't V. Davis, as Cousins doesn't target him much and he often stays in to block. I don't believe Pryor is a good receiver on contested balls, even though he has the requisite size. Maybe Doctson?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Way too early to push the panic button. Cousins threw 1 TD in the first two weeks of last season and ended up being pretty good. He’ll get things going, and that process probably will start kicking in on Sunday night, with a shootout against the Raiders. As for pass catchers around the goal line, I think you’ll see plenty of Pryor, Reed and Crowder. Doctson is very much on the outside right now – Ryan Grant has been starting ahead of him.
Question 9
Who is Jay Ajayi’s backup?
BRUCE SADLER (Lakeland, FL)
It might not be one guy. If he were to get injured, I imagine both Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake would play. But Williams appears to be the No. 2 back. He played before Drake in all of the preseason games, and he’s listed higher on the team’s depth chart. I think they might trust him more on passing downs (they can both catch, but Williams might be more reliable in protections). Williams is definitely the larger, sturdier runner, so he would be more likely to punch in a 1-yard touchdown. If Ajayi gets hurt, I’m imagining Williams will start the game and probably get 60 percent of the work. If Drake is ripping it up with his touches, they’d make an effort to get him on the field more.
Question 10
Derek Carr at Washington or Big Ben at Chicago?
Karl Scheel (Ingleside, IL)
I’m not a fan of starting Roethlisberger in road games. I don’t care who the opponent is. He’s just not the same guy. Since the start of the 2014 season, Roethlisberger in 21 games at Heinz Field has averaged 334 passing yards, with 61 touchdowns – almost 3 per game. But in his last 23 games on the road, he’s averaged 269 yards, with 25 TDs and 23 interceptions.
| ROETHLISBERGER ON THE ROAD | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2014 | Balt. | L 6-26 | 217 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | Car. | W 37-19 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | Jac. | W 17-9 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | Clev. | L 10-31 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | NYJ | L 13-20 | 343 | 1 | 2 |
| 2014 | Tenn. | W 27-24 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | Cin. | W 42-21 | 350 | 3 | 0 |
| 2014 | Atl. | W 27-20 | 360 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | N.E. | L 21-28 | 351 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | St.L. | W 12-6 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | Sea. | L 30-39 | 456 | 1 | 2 |
| 2015 | Cin. | W 33-20 | 282 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | Balt. | L 17-20 | 220 | 0 | 2 |
| 2015 | Clev. | W 28-12 | 349 | 3 | 2 |
| 2016 | Wash. | W 38-16 | 300 | 3 | 1 |
| 2016 | Phil. | L 3-34 | 257 | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Mia. | L 15-30 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
| 2016 | Balt. | L 14-21 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Clev. | W 24-9 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Ind. | W 28-7 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
| 2016 | Buff. | W 27-20 | 220 | 0 | 3 |
| 2016 | Cin. | W 24-20 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | Clev. | W 24-18 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Question 11
As I understand it, Will Fuller will likely return from a broken collarbone in 2-4 weeks, having begun practice this week. Meanwhile, Corey Coleman will be out at least 8 weeks from this point on IR, with a broken hand. Yet the Re-Drafter for standard ESPN scoring projects Fuller for a little more than 9 additional points on the season. I can keep only one on IR. Is Coleman that good, that he's worth waiting for, over Fuller?
Dan Shipley (Black Diamond, WA)
When they’re both healthy, I like Coleman more. I think he’s about 2 points better (per game) than Fuller. If you want the guy who’s going to finish the season with more total points, than I will take Fuller. He’ll probably return in Week 4-5. For typical fantasy leagues, the question is which guy will help you win some games? That is, there are lots of lesser wide receivers on the waiver wire in any given week. For this week, for example, those looking for a fill-in pass catcher might be able to pick up Rashard Higgins. Or maybe Geronimo Allison if one of the Green Bay regulars doesn’t play. These receivers aren’t nothing. If you were playing the flavor-of-the-week approach, you might have gotten J.J. Nelson or Brandon Coleman last week. With Fuller, he’s fast, with the ability to score long touchdowns, but he doesn’t catch in traffic, and he’s trapped in a lesser offense. I’m not confident he’s better than the hodgepodge of guys that are always around. With Coleman, I’m not excited about carrying him for eight weeks, but once he gets back, I have more confidence that he’ll be able to outperform those waiver-grab guys in a lot of weeks.
Question 12
An owner wants to trade injured David Johnson to me, but our first attempt got vetoed by the league since many thought I was ripping off the other coach. What is David Johnson worth in a dynasty, non-PPR league?
Jerry Wilson (Arlington, WA)
I don’t think he’s worth much of anything this year. Maybe he comes back for the last 3-4 games, but the Cardinals probably will be dead and buried by that time, so there will be no incentive to rush him onto the field. Heading into next year, I imagine he’ll be a top-5 back on everyone’s board – a 26-year-old who should cut it up pretty good in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. If I were walking into a dynasty league today, I’d probably selecting him about 15 running backs into the draft.
Question 13
Could you provide a little clarification on your opinion of Donte Moncrief going forward? In both this week's re-drafter write-up, and the Week 3 Index, you don't sound very high on him, even calling him "remarkably awful." Yet in the same re-drafter rankings (TD only), you have him as the WR19, ahead of the likes of AJG, K.Allen, Diggs, and Cooks. 'Cause I gotta admit, if anyone offered me any of those 4 WRs straight up for Moncrief I'd be jumping on that lickety-split. Can you expound on what would appear to be a contradiction of Moncrief? Do you feel he still has value based on the (hopefully) impending return of Luck?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
We’re talking about two different guys. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Moncrief has very limited value. Maybe you can toss him out there this week, with the Colts playing at home against a similarly crappy team (Cleveland). But if Brissett were to start the next 16 games, he’d probably throw about 18 TDs, with Moncrief catching about a quarter of those – 4-5 TDs. Key is Andrew Luck. When he’s back and operating at something close to his usual level of play, he’ll probably throw about 28 touchdowns in his next 16 games. Then Moncrief becomes more of a 7-TD guy. Moncrief isn’t as good as T.Y. Hilton, but with that big body, he tends to be their main receiving option around the goal line. I believe that once they get everything dialed in, Moncrief will catch more touchdowns than Hilton.
Question 14
Have you heard anything about Josh Gordon's suspension ending, and if so, is he worth stashing on my roster?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
There’s a report at Cleveland 247 Sports that says Josh Gordon was getting out of an in-patient rehab facility yesterday. He wants to play, and he intends to again petition the league. His last attempt (in May) was denied. If they give him the green light, he’s still an awfully talented guy, and he’s only 26 years old. This article suggests Gordon’s chances of reinstatement are a little better than 50-50.
Question 15
Thinking of potential for the rest of the year and playoffs. Would you drop either Mike Gillislee or Javorius Allen to acquire Derrick Henry?
DEREK SANCHEZ (El Paso, TX)
They all have some value. Gillislee scores 1-yard touchdowns, and that’s a valuable role on a team like the Patriots. The Ravens have a vastly improved running game – 26th and 28th the last two years, but looking more like top-10 this year – and he’s a big part of that. Allen looks like he might be better than Terrance West (faster and more elusive). Henry looks like he might be ready to muscle his way past DeMarco Murray in Tennessee. Neither Gillislee nor Henry, of course, is much of a factor as pass catchers, while Allen might start catching 4-plus balls every week (with the Ravens having lost Danny Woodhead).
Question 16
My leagues bid a lot of money on Cohen ($40 & $51 with $100 budgets). Our league is new to FAAB so I was wondering what the best strategy is: do you plunk down a ton of money on the first breakout studs (the "you can't take it with you strategy") or do you hold tight for down the road after the other owners have spent their dough and you can outbid everyone? Based on past seasons, is there more value to adding the first potential studs or is it better to wait? I think it would be interesting to see one of your in-depth tables that lists undrafted players, what week they came on the scene (maybe added by more than half of leagues), and how much value they added (yards and TDs)?
CLAY TOLONEN (Forest Lake, MN)
There will be a handful of true breakout stars – guys who weren’t drafted but can be used week after week, maybe finishing in the top 10 at their position. When you see one of those guys, I think you aggressively go after them. Even if they’re not a great fit with your roster, you may need them later. And at least you’re keeping them off somebody else’s roster. In a typical season, I want to make sure I get one or two of those high-ticket guys. After that, I tend to use my remaining money for petty cash, making minor adjustments each week – often kickers or defenses.
Question 17
I am in a TD-heavy keeper league and lost David Johnson last week. I picked up Jonathan Stewart but thinking about Alvin Kamara. The Panthers have McCaffery and Cam as rushers while Kamara out snapped both Peterson and Ingram.
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I think Stewart will score more touchdowns this year. He plays for a much better team, and I think he’ll be scoring the vast majority of short rushing touchdowns for the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey is more of a smaller, elusive back they want to get in space, and I don’t think Cam Newton will be used nearly as often as a runner around the goal line – they want to keep him healthy. If you’re looking more long term, than Kamara makes a lot more sense. He’s 8 years younger, and Stewart long has had problems staying healthy.
Question 18
I know you don't possess any top secret insider information on Andrew Luck's shoulder. But is he worth holding on to? I've got him in 2 leagues. Starting Carr in one league and Winston in the other, so I'm not hurting at QB. But I'm not sure if I should hold Luck expecting him to put up good numbers in the second half of the season and the fantasy playoffs ... or dump him to free up a roster spot for an up-and-coming RB or WR.
kevin tschetter (Sandy, UT)
They didn’t put him on the PUP list. They’re carrying him on their 53-man roster. That presumably means they believe there’s some chance Luck will be healthy enough to return to practice at some point during the first six weeks of the season.
Question 19
I noticed on your most recent re-draft cheat sheet that David Johnson isn't even ranked. I can't imagine that you would recommend rostering several of the listed running backs over David Johnson. It sounds like he is expected to miss 8-12 from when he had surgery, so that would him back between weeks 9-13, just in time for a playoff push. In 10-12 teams leagues where you have more depth available, what type of RB would you consider to be of equal value to trade for him if you have good RB depth? Are you concerned he'll be shut down completely? Just interested in your thoughts for the situation in general.
Kyle Wells (Lynnwood, WA)
Bruce Arians made the comment about hoping to have David Johnson back by about Christmas. That would be Week 16, and that factored into Johnson not making the cut. But there is, in fact, some chance he’ll return. I saw an article yesterday suggesting there’s no timeline – they’re going to have him rehab and see how it goes. He’s on injured reserve, so he can’t return until Week 10. That’s the best-case scenario. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but maybe. More realistically, the Cardinals will be out of playoff contention by the time Johnson is healthy enough to play, and they’ll be conservative about rushing him back onto the field. Deserves to be tucked away with a reserve spot in typical fantasy leagues, I think – a guy who might come back in Week 12-13 and maybe help in those key late-season games.
Question 20
I'm trying to get a sense of how to value future draft picks in a dynasty league. I'm in a 16-team league and should draft in the lower half. If, in my mind, picks are being overvalued based on the trades I'm being offered shouldn't I just try to unload all of mine for decent players? Is a 1st and 2nd next year too much to give up for a player like Hunter Henry if 35-year-old Jason Witten is my tight end? Howard and Njoku went 9-10 last year, so I missed out on both. If Henry were in next year's draft for some reason wouldn't he go higher than that?
Jeff Fell (Sarnia, ON)
I would rather have Henry. He’s a good player. He’ll be entering his third year and should be ready to play some really good ball. On the other hand, anytime you trade away draft picks, you’re forfeiting the chance to grab some players you might like. Where, for example, was Kareem Hunt chosen in your draft? Or perhaps Taywan Taylor, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith and JuJu Smith-Schuster (neither of those players have done much yet, but all look like they’ll make an impact in future seasons – they’re the kind of players you might have chosen in the second round).
Question 21
I have been offered Cook for McCaffrey in a PPR dynasty league. Your thoughts?
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
To me, they both look like they’re going to be good pros for a lot of years. They look like LeSean McCoy backs, who can both run and catch passes. I’ve got Cook a little higher. I think he’s probably a little better as a runner and a little more explosive. I think he’s got three runs of 25-plus yards in his first two games. McCaffrey is probably a little better as a pass catcher, helping him close the cap in your PPR format.
Question 22
How might a coach figure out how to start the 3 combined receivers who will score the most points and not leave them on the bench? Cooper, Benjamin, Garcon, Ginn and Witten seem to want to score when I am not starting them.
Jane Gayamat (Bellingham, WA)
I think you go week by week. Each game, you look at the matchups and decide how your players will perform. You put them in order, 1-2-3-4-5, and you start the top 3. And you have to respect that a lot of weeks, one of the receivers you have on the bench will outperform one of the ones you have in your starting lineup. That’s the nature of the beast. And it gets harder to pick the best three out of five when you’ve got a deep roster, with capable players in those fourth and five spots.
Question 23
I have been offered Alshon Jeffrey, Jeremy Maclin or Marvin Jones in a straight up trade for Ty Montgomery. We are in a three-player keeper league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 Flex, 1 PK and a team defense. Roster size 16. I am strong at RB with Gurley, Dalvin Cook (thank you fantasy index), Kareem Hunt, Robert Kelley and of course Montgomery. The downside of my roster is WR. My issue is that while I have a good RB core, I worry about injury and not sure if there is balance in the trade offer. Your thoughts are appreciated.
DAVID VAZQUEZ (Fort Myers, FL)
Montgomery is a lot better than any of those three wide receivers. To me, the offer isn’t close enough to reality to even merit a return phone call. Sounds like one of those owners who likes to run around making one-sided trade offers, hoping somebody is foolish enough to bite. You start three running backs. You’ve got four viable backs on your roster (Robert Kelley is more of a backup-type guy). So I wouldn’t worry about it too much. In a lot of the coming weeks, one of those four elite backs won’t be available because of byes, injuries and unsavory matchups. If you decide to trade one of those four, I’m sure you’ll have no problem finding a willing trading partner.
Question 24
I participate in a 12-team league that uses ESPN scoring. Should I trade Derek Carr for James Winston?
RAY KELLY (Port Orchard, WA)
For this week, I have Carr a lot higher than Winston. (I don’t think Tampa Bay will have a good day at Minnesota). But for the season, I have Winston higher. I think Winston’s numbers will be a little better, and he’s also got one more game left than Carr (Hurricane Irma moved the Bucs-Dolphins game from Week 1 to Week 11).
Question 25
Blockbuster trade in the works. PPR league. He is offering LeVeon Bell and Demaryius Thomas for Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas, and Buck Allen. He seems intent on including Michael Thomas in the deal despite my attempts to include Kelvin Benjamin instead. That being the case, do you do the deal as is?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
Of course he’s trying to get Michael Thomas included. He’s giving up substantial value – letting you have LeVeon Bell for Melvin Gordon. Why would he do that to get in return … Kelvin Benjamin? To me, it looks like his trade offer is a lot realistic than yours. You would get about 50 point of value with Bell, he would pick up 30 points for value with the move up to Michael Thomas, and then he’s thinking/hoping that Javorius Allen will develop into something.
Question 26
I'm always conflicted on choosing RB vs. WR for flex spots. This week I have to choose between Chris Carson or DeVante Parker. Who do you like (PPR league)? I'm leaning Parker but still on the fence.
STEVEN ALESSANDRINI (Flanders, NJ)
Not even close in my opinion. I’ve got Parker at 13.4 points. I’ve got Carson down at 8.0 (I don’t expect the Seahawks to play well at Tennessee, and I’m not sure he’ll even be their top running back – they’ve also got Rawls and Prosise).