The revised player projections just left my desk. They’ll be showing up in your email box shortly. But separately from that, I’ll share my revised team projections – what I expect from each offense in the remaining games.
Starting with touchdowns. (Just rushing and passing – no special teams or defenses.) If we were starting a new season today, with each team playing 16 games, I would expect six offenses to score at least 46 touchdowns: Patriots, Packers, Falcons, Raiders, Saints and Titans. New Orleans I’ve got at 47, and that’s actually low for them – I don’t like their absence of playmakers, but I’m leery of moving them down lower.
On this chart (and on all of them) teams get no credit for what they’ve done in the first three weeks. That is, if an offense just scored 7 TDs on Sunday, that might make me more optimistic that they’ll score touchdowns in the future, but those scores aren’t worked into the totals you see – I’m giving you numbers of what I expect to happen.
(I’m using 16 games because that’s the length of an NFL season.)
| OFFENSES, TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New England | 37.6 | 18.1 | 55.7 |
| Green Bay | 38.7 | 11.7 | 50.4 |
| Atlanta | 31.4 | 16.6 | 48.0 |
| Oakland | 31.2 | 16.6 | 47.8 |
| New Orleans | 32.6 | 14.7 | 47.4 |
| Tennessee | 27.5 | 18.6 | 46.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 32.3 | 13.1 | 45.4 |
| Dallas | 27.0 | 17.1 | 44.2 |
| Philadelphia | 28.8 | 13.4 | 42.2 |
| Seattle | 30.6 | 10.9 | 41.4 |
| Washington | 28.5 | 12.0 | 40.5 |
| Minnesota | 28.3 | 12.0 | 40.3 |
| Kansas City | 22.1 | 17.3 | 39.4 |
| Denver | 24.8 | 13.8 | 38.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.6 | 9.6 | 38.2 |
| Detroit | 29.9 | 7.4 | 37.3 |
| Indianapolis | 27.4 | 9.8 | 37.1 |
| LA Chargers | 28.0 | 9.1 | 37.1 |
| LA Rams | 21.4 | 14.6 | 36.0 |
| Miami | 24.2 | 11.4 | 35.5 |
| Carolina | 20.8 | 14.6 | 35.4 |
| Jacksonville | 18.4 | 16.6 | 35.0 |
| Cincinnati | 21.4 | 13.0 | 34.4 |
| NY Giants | 27.7 | 6.4 | 34.1 |
| Houston | 19.5 | 14.1 | 33.6 |
| Arizona | 26.1 | 7.0 | 33.1 |
| Baltimore | 18.9 | 13.9 | 32.8 |
| Buffalo | 18.4 | 14.4 | 32.8 |
| Chicago | 17.4 | 14.6 | 32.0 |
| San Francisco | 20.0 | 11.2 | 31.2 |
| Cleveland | 17.6 | 10.4 | 28.0 |
| NY Jets | 17.4 | 9.9 | 27.4 |
For rushing production, the top 5 includes Jacksonville and four teams that were originally created in Texas -- Titans (Houston Oilers), Cowboys, Kansas City (Dallas Texans) and Houston Texans.
There are some teams that just can’t run it worth beans, and I’m trying to get more aggressive with those – Giants, Cardinals, Chargers, Lions and Colts down at the bottom.
These teams are ordered by fantasy points – 1 for every 10 rushing yards, and 6 points for each rushing touchdown. The rushing yards you see are team totals, including running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers.
| OFFENSES, RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Tennessee | 145 | 1.16 | 21.5 |
| Dallas | 128 | 1.07 | 19.2 |
| Kansas City | 127 | 1.08 | 19.2 |
| Jacksonville | 127 | 1.04 | 18.9 |
| Houston | 135 | .88 | 18.8 |
| New England | 111 | 1.13 | 17.9 |
| Denver | 127 | .86 | 17.9 |
| Atlanta | 116 | 1.04 | 17.8 |
| Oakland | 115 | 1.04 | 17.7 |
| Carolina | 120 | .91 | 17.5 |
| Baltimore | 121 | .87 | 17.3 |
| Buffalo | 119 | .90 | 17.3 |
| Chicago | 118 | .91 | 17.3 |
| Philadelphia | 121 | .84 | 17.1 |
| New Orleans | 110 | .92 | 16.5 |
| Cincinnati | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 103 | .82 | 15.2 |
| Seattle | 110 | .68 | 15.1 |
| San Francisco | 108 | .70 | 15.0 |
| Washington | 105 | .75 | 15.0 |
| LA Rams | 95 | .91 | 15.0 |
| Minnesota | 104 | .75 | 14.9 |
| Miami | 104 | .71 | 14.7 |
| NY Jets | 104 | .62 | 14.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 103 | .60 | 13.9 |
| Green Bay | 94 | .73 | 13.8 |
| Cleveland | 98 | .65 | 13.7 |
| Indianapolis | 92 | .61 | 12.9 |
| Detroit | 90 | .46 | 11.8 |
| LA Chargers | 77 | .57 | 11.1 |
| Arizona | 75 | .44 | 10.1 |
| NY Giants | 71 | .40 | 9.5 |
For passing projections, I’ve got the usual suspects at the top – Patriots, Packers, Saints, Falcons and Steelers. The Vikings are the surprise team in the top 10 – they seem to be for real.
Down near the bottom, I’m going with Jets, Bills and Jaguars, followed by some passing offenses that have been sinking in value – Bears, Ravens and Panthers.
| OFFENSES, PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| New England | 310 | 2.35 | 45.1 |
| Green Bay | 305 | 2.42 | 45.0 |
| New Orleans | 295 | 2.04 | 41.7 |
| Atlanta | 285 | 1.96 | 40.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 277 | 2.02 | 39.8 |
| Washington | 280 | 1.78 | 38.7 |
| Seattle | 268 | 1.91 | 38.3 |
| Detroit | 270 | 1.87 | 38.2 |
| Minnesota | 273 | 1.77 | 37.9 |
| Oakland | 260 | 1.95 | 37.7 |
| LA Chargers | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| Arizona | 275 | 1.63 | 37.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 265 | 1.79 | 37.2 |
| Indianapolis | 266 | 1.71 | 36.9 |
| NY Giants | 263 | 1.73 | 36.7 |
| Philadelphia | 255 | 1.80 | 36.3 |
| Dallas | 245 | 1.69 | 34.6 |
| Tennessee | 235 | 1.72 | 33.8 |
| Denver | 238 | 1.55 | 33.1 |
| Miami | 237 | 1.51 | 32.8 |
| Kansas City | 240 | 1.38 | 32.3 |
| Cincinnati | 240 | 1.34 | 32.0 |
| LA Rams | 240 | 1.34 | 32.0 |
| San Francisco | 220 | 1.25 | 29.5 |
| Cleveland | 228 | 1.10 | 29.4 |
| Houston | 220 | 1.22 | 29.3 |
| Carolina | 215 | 1.30 | 29.3 |
| Baltimore | 215 | 1.18 | 28.6 |
| Chicago | 215 | 1.09 | 28.0 |
| Jacksonville | 210 | 1.15 | 27.9 |
| Buffalo | 205 | 1.15 | 27.4 |
| NY Jets | 205 | 1.09 | 27.0 |
When you see the player rankings later today, they’re all tied to these team totals – these stats are divvied up amongst the individual players on each roster (and then influenced by the expected number of games played). Each offense gets re-worked and adjusted each week. I try to find the right balance of reacting to changes that are occurring while not overreacting to outlier numbers created by matchups, injuries and whatnot.
If you see something that you’ve think I’ve got wrong, mention it in the comments section. Maybe you’ve got an angle on an offense that I’m overlooking.
—Ian Allan