I’ve been playing around with some of the strength of schedule numbers. Seems to me that three teams in the AFC South will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way: Titans, Texans and Jaguars.
Those aren’t factual numbers. That’s a mixture of schedules and my own impressions of the teams.
I started by giving each team an estimated win-loss record, if it were to start a new 16-game season and play a typical schedule. Those numbers look something like this …
WIN-LOSS ESTIMATES (neutral schedule) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Atlanta | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
Green Bay | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
New England | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Pittsburgh | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Seattle | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Carolina | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Denver | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Kansas City | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Washington | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Buffalo | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Dallas | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Detroit | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Houston | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Tampa Bay | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Tennessee | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
LA Rams | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
New Orleans | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Oakland | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Minnesota | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Cincinnati | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Indianapolis | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Jacksonville | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Baltimore | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Arizona | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Chicago | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
LA Chargers | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Miami | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
NY Giants | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
NY Jets | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
San Francisco | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Cleveland | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 |
If we plug those wins and losses into the first four weeks of the season, they show that the Bears, Vikings and Giants thus far have played the hardest schedules. The Steelers, Bucs and Dolphins have played the easiest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-4) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Chicago | 44 | 20 | 0 | .688 |
Minnesota | 37 | 26 | 1 | .586 |
NY Giants | 37 | 27 | 0 | .578 |
Washington | 35 | 26 | 3 | .570 |
New England | 35 | 26 | 3 | .570 |
Kansas City | 35 | 27 | 2 | .563 |
Buffalo | 35 | 27 | 2 | .563 |
Green Bay | 34 | 28 | 2 | .547 |
Atlanta | 35 | 29 | 0 | .547 |
Tennessee | 33 | 29 | 2 | .531 |
New Orleans | 33 | 29 | 2 | .531 |
LA Chargers | 33 | 29 | 2 | .531 |
Houston | 33 | 29 | 2 | .531 |
Carolina | 33 | 29 | 2 | .531 |
San Francisco | 32 | 29 | 3 | .523 |
Oakland | 32 | 30 | 2 | .516 |
Seattle | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Denver | 31 | 32 | 1 | .492 |
Cleveland | 29 | 32 | 3 | .477 |
LA Rams | 29 | 33 | 2 | .469 |
Detroit | 30 | 34 | 0 | .469 |
Cincinnati | 29 | 34 | 1 | .461 |
Arizona | 29 | 34 | 1 | .461 |
Philadelphia | 28 | 34 | 2 | .453 |
NY Jets | 28 | 35 | 1 | .445 |
Jacksonville | 28 | 35 | 1 | .445 |
Dallas | 27 | 35 | 2 | .438 |
Baltimore | 27 | 36 | 1 | .430 |
Indianapolis | 26 | 36 | 2 | .422 |
Miami | 18 | 29 | 1 | .385 |
Tampa Bay | 18 | 30 | 0 | .375 |
Pittsburgh | 21 | 42 | 1 | .336 |
Looking at the remaining 13 weeks of the season, the Titans, Texans and Jaguars project to play the easiest schedules. The Saints, Dolphins and Bucs (at least by my math) project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 5-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 76 | 111 | 5 | .409 |
Houston | 83 | 103 | 6 | .448 |
Jacksonville | 84 | 103 | 5 | .451 |
Washington | 88 | 101 | 3 | .466 |
LA Rams | 90 | 99 | 3 | .477 |
Cleveland | 91 | 99 | 2 | .479 |
Seattle | 91 | 98 | 3 | .482 |
Denver | 89 | 96 | 7 | .482 |
Cincinnati | 91 | 98 | 3 | .482 |
Buffalo | 89 | 96 | 7 | .482 |
San Francisco | 91 | 97 | 4 | .484 |
New England | 92 | 98 | 2 | .484 |
Oakland | 91 | 96 | 5 | .487 |
Baltimore | 92 | 97 | 3 | .487 |
Philadelphia | 91 | 95 | 6 | .490 |
LA Chargers | 91 | 95 | 6 | .490 |
Kansas City | 92 | 96 | 4 | .490 |
Green Bay | 93 | 96 | 3 | .492 |
Chicago | 93 | 95 | 4 | .495 |
Indianapolis | 94 | 95 | 3 | .497 |
Pittsburgh | 93 | 93 | 6 | .500 |
Detroit | 94 | 94 | 4 | .500 |
Minnesota | 96 | 91 | 5 | .513 |
NY Giants | 96 | 89 | 7 | .518 |
Arizona | 98 | 89 | 5 | .523 |
NY Jets | 100 | 86 | 6 | .536 |
Atlanta | 100 | 86 | 6 | .536 |
Carolina | 104 | 87 | 1 | .544 |
Dallas | 104 | 83 | 5 | .555 |
Tampa Bay | 114 | 89 | 5 | .560 |
Miami | 115 | 86 | 7 | .570 |
New Orleans | 108 | 81 | 3 | .570 |
Taking more of a short-term view, the Titans, Vikings and Rams project to play the easiest schedules over the next five weeks.
Detroit, Kansas City, Carolina and Dallas project to play the hardest schedules over the next five weeks.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 5-9) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 19 | 43 | 2 | .313 |
Minnesota | 25 | 38 | 1 | .398 |
LA Rams | 26 | 37 | 1 | .414 |
Oakland | 33 | 45 | 2 | .425 |
Baltimore | 35 | 44 | 1 | .444 |
Indianapolis | 36 | 43 | 1 | .456 |
Houston | 28 | 33 | 3 | .461 |
Denver | 29 | 34 | 1 | .461 |
Buffalo | 29 | 33 | 2 | .469 |
Philadelphia | 37 | 40 | 3 | .481 |
New England | 31 | 33 | 0 | .484 |
Cleveland | 31 | 33 | 0 | .484 |
Atlanta | 30 | 32 | 2 | .484 |
Chicago | 30 | 31 | 3 | .492 |
Seattle | 31 | 31 | 2 | .500 |
San Francisco | 39 | 39 | 2 | .500 |
Pittsburgh | 31 | 31 | 2 | .500 |
Miami | 39 | 39 | 2 | .500 |
NY Jets | 40 | 39 | 1 | .506 |
Cincinnati | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Arizona | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
NY Giants | 32 | 29 | 3 | .523 |
Jacksonville | 32 | 29 | 3 | .523 |
Washington | 34 | 29 | 1 | .539 |
LA Chargers | 33 | 28 | 3 | .539 |
Green Bay | 34 | 29 | 1 | .539 |
Tampa Bay | 42 | 35 | 3 | .544 |
New Orleans | 35 | 29 | 0 | .547 |
Dallas | 35 | 27 | 2 | .563 |
Carolina | 45 | 35 | 0 | .563 |
Kansas City | 46 | 32 | 2 | .588 |
Detroit | 40 | 22 | 2 | .641 |
—Ian Allan