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Revised strength of schedule

Scheduling should help teams in AFC South

I’ve been playing around with some of the strength of schedule numbers. Seems to me that three teams in the AFC South will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way: Titans, Texans and Jaguars.

Those aren’t factual numbers. That’s a mixture of schedules and my own impressions of the teams.

I started by giving each team an estimated win-loss record, if it were to start a new 16-game season and play a typical schedule. Those numbers look something like this …

WIN-LOSS ESTIMATES (neutral schedule)
TeamWLTPct
Atlanta1240.750
Green Bay1240.750
New England1141.719
Pittsburgh1150.688
Seattle1051.656
Philadelphia1060.625
Carolina961.594
Denver961.594
Kansas City961.594
Washington961.594
Buffalo970.563
Dallas970.563
Detroit970.563
Houston970.563
Tampa Bay970.563
Tennessee970.563
LA Rams871.531
New Orleans871.531
Oakland871.531
Minnesota880.500
Cincinnati781.469
Indianapolis691.406
Jacksonville6100.375
Baltimore5101.344
Arizona5110.313
Chicago5110.313
LA Chargers5110.313
Miami5110.313
NY Giants5110.313
NY Jets5110.313
San Francisco5110.313
Cleveland3130.188

If we plug those wins and losses into the first four weeks of the season, they show that the Bears, Vikings and Giants thus far have played the hardest schedules. The Steelers, Bucs and Dolphins have played the easiest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-4)
TeamWLTPct
Chicago44200.688
Minnesota37261.586
NY Giants37270.578
Washington35263.570
New England35263.570
Kansas City35272.563
Buffalo35272.563
Green Bay34282.547
Atlanta35290.547
Tennessee33292.531
New Orleans33292.531
LA Chargers33292.531
Houston33292.531
Carolina33292.531
San Francisco32293.523
Oakland32302.516
Seattle32311.508
Denver31321.492
Cleveland29323.477
LA Rams29332.469
Detroit30340.469
Cincinnati29341.461
Arizona29341.461
Philadelphia28342.453
NY Jets28351.445
Jacksonville28351.445
Dallas27352.438
Baltimore27361.430
Indianapolis26362.422
Miami18291.385
Tampa Bay18300.375
Pittsburgh21421.336

Looking at the remaining 13 weeks of the season, the Titans, Texans and Jaguars project to play the easiest schedules. The Saints, Dolphins and Bucs (at least by my math) project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 5-17)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee761115.409
Houston831036.448
Jacksonville841035.451
Washington881013.466
LA Rams90993.477
Cleveland91992.479
Seattle91983.482
Denver89967.482
Cincinnati91983.482
Buffalo89967.482
San Francisco91974.484
New England92982.484
Oakland91965.487
Baltimore92973.487
Philadelphia91956.490
LA Chargers91956.490
Kansas City92964.490
Green Bay93963.492
Chicago93954.495
Indianapolis94953.497
Pittsburgh93936.500
Detroit94944.500
Minnesota96915.513
NY Giants96897.518
Arizona98895.523
NY Jets100866.536
Atlanta100866.536
Carolina104871.544
Dallas104835.555
Tampa Bay114895.560
Miami115867.570
New Orleans108813.570

Taking more of a short-term view, the Titans, Vikings and Rams project to play the easiest schedules over the next five weeks.

Detroit, Kansas City, Carolina and Dallas project to play the hardest schedules over the next five weeks.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 5-9)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee19432.313
Minnesota25381.398
LA Rams26371.414
Oakland33452.425
Baltimore35441.444
Indianapolis36431.456
Houston28333.461
Denver29341.461
Buffalo29332.469
Philadelphia37403.481
New England31330.484
Cleveland31330.484
Atlanta30322.484
Chicago30313.492
Seattle31312.500
San Francisco39392.500
Pittsburgh31312.500
Miami39392.500
NY Jets40391.506
Cincinnati32311.508
Arizona32311.508
NY Giants32293.523
Jacksonville32293.523
Washington34291.539
LA Chargers33283.539
Green Bay34291.539
Tampa Bay42353.544
New Orleans35290.547
Dallas35272.563
Carolina45350.563
Kansas City46322.588
Detroit40222.641

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index