New England, Kansas City and Tampa Bay all have notable offenses, but they all could be damaged by scheduling during the remainder of the season. That’s what the scheduling trends are telling me.
I have taken the points allowed by each team so far (with each team having played 5-6 games). I have then plugged that data into what’s left of the schedule. This paints a picture of how the schedule could affect what happens going forward.
This data suggests that when you look at each team’s next 10 games, the Patriots will play the hardest schedule by far, with its opponents allowing only 18.6 points per game so far (over a point less than any other team). That’s fueled by two games each against Buffalo and Miami, which both have played good defense so far.
The Colts (anybody?) have the 2nd-hardest schedule. Then come the more notable Kansas City and Tampa Bay franchises.
The Jaguars, Texans and Steelers, if form holds, should see the easiest schedules over their next 10 games.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 10 games) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| Jacksonville | 25.0 |
| Houston | 23.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.8 |
| Buffalo | 23.6 |
| San Francisco | 23.0 |
| Seattle | 23.0 |
| Tennessee | 22.9 |
| LA Rams | 22.9 |
| Philadelphia | 22.7 |
| NY Giants | 22.6 |
| Baltimore | 22.5 |
| Cincinnati | 22.4 |
| Atlanta | 22.4 |
| Minnesota | 22.3 |
| Green Bay | 22.3 |
| Denver | 22.2 |
| Washington | 22.0 |
| Chicago | 22.0 |
| Arizona | 22.0 |
| LA Chargers | 21.9 |
| Carolina | 21.8 |
| New Orleans | 21.7 |
| Miami | 21.7 |
| Detroit | 21.6 |
| Dallas | 21.6 |
| Oakland | 21.1 |
| Cleveland | 21.1 |
| NY Jets | 21.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 20.8 |
| Kansas City | 20.4 |
| Indianapolis | 20.1 |
| New England | 18.6 |
If you would like to take a shorter-term view, I have also run the numbers for the next five games for each team. Using that formula, the Bucs, Jets and Raiders have the hardest schedules – the three teams under 20 points per game.
Four teams will play their next five games against opponents that are (on average) allowing over 24 points per game – Steelers, Jaguars, Texans.
Scheduling isn’t everything, of course, but there is some potential value there. To go from under 20 points (on average) to over 24 points, that’s an increase of over 20 percent.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 5 games) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| Pittsburgh | 24.8 |
| Jacksonville | 24.7 |
| Houston | 24.0 |
| Philadelphia | 23.5 |
| Minnesota | 23.5 |
| Seattle | 23.4 |
| Cincinnati | 22.9 |
| LA Rams | 22.6 |
| Tennessee | 22.6 |
| San Francisco | 22.5 |
| Atlanta | 22.5 |
| Buffalo | 22.4 |
| Chicago | 22.2 |
| Dallas | 22.1 |
| Green Bay | 22.1 |
| Carolina | 21.8 |
| NY Giants | 21.8 |
| New Orleans | 21.8 |
| Baltimore | 21.7 |
| Miami | 21.6 |
| Arizona | 21.5 |
| Detroit | 21.5 |
| Denver | 21.4 |
| LA Chargers | 21.1 |
| Washington | 20.9 |
| Cleveland | 20.9 |
| Indianapolis | 20.8 |
| Kansas City | 20.7 |
| New England | 20.2 |
| Oakland | 19.8 |
| NY Jets | 19.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 19.4 |
—Ian Allan