Looking at strength of schedule, I think we have to entertain the potential of Jacksonville to make the playoffs. It also looks like the two Pennsylvania teams are in this think for the long haul – strong possibility they’ll be in the conference championship games.
With the Jaguars, their remaining nine games are against teams that are a combined 21-39 – by far the worst record in the league. They’ve got three against the Colts, Browns and 49ers, so it’s almost as if Jacksonville is 7-3 right now.
The Steelers and Eagles have already established themselves as good teams, and they’ve got the 2nd- and 3rd-easiest schedules the rest of the way.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are a lot of playoff hopefuls who’ll play tough schedules during the final nine weeks, with Oakland and Miami leading the way. The Dolphins, most notably, have four games left against New England and Buffalo.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 8-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Jacksonville | 21 | 39 | .350 |
Philadelphia | 25 | 34 | .424 |
Pittsburgh | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Tennessee | 27 | 34 | .443 |
Detroit | 31 | 37 | .456 |
Baltimore | 27 | 32 | .458 |
Chicago | 27 | 32 | .458 |
Minnesota | 27 | 32 | .458 |
Washington | 30 | 35 | .462 |
Houston | 32 | 37 | .464 |
Kansas City | 27 | 31 | .466 |
Green Bay | 28 | 32 | .467 |
Cincinnati | 32 | 36 | .471 |
Arizona | 28 | 31 | .475 |
LA Chargers | 30 | 30 | .500 |
LA Rams | 30 | 30 | .500 |
New Orleans | 32 | 32 | .500 |
Seattle | 33 | 33 | .500 |
NY Giants | 31 | 29 | .517 |
Cleveland | 32 | 29 | .525 |
Carolina | 30 | 27 | .526 |
Indianapolis | 31 | 27 | .534 |
San Francisco | 33 | 28 | .541 |
Atlanta | 35 | 29 | .547 |
Dallas | 37 | 29 | .561 |
Tampa Bay | 36 | 28 | .563 |
Buffalo | 38 | 29 | .567 |
Denver | 38 | 29 | .567 |
New England | 33 | 25 | .569 |
NY Jets | 33 | 25 | .569 |
Miami | 38 | 28 | .576 |
Oakland | 34 | 25 | .576 |
The other way to look at this is to focus on the games that have been played. And by that measure, New Orleans and Kansas City have been especially impressive. Both of those teams have just two losses, and they’ve managed those good starts despite playing the two hardest schedules in the league.
The Colts and Browns, meanwhile, have managed their lackluster starts despite playing two of the easiest schedules in the league.
The Cowboys and Seahawks have also benefitted thus far from playing lesser schedules.
On these, you’re seeing the combined wins and losses of opponents in their other games. New Orleans’ opponents, for example, are a combined 25-15 – 2-4 against the Saints, and 23-11 against the rest of the league.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-7) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Indianapolis | 15 | 26 | .366 |
Dallas | 13 | 22 | .371 |
Cleveland | 15 | 25 | .375 |
Seattle | 14 | 22 | .389 |
Denver | 14 | 20 | .412 |
Arizona | 17 | 22 | .436 |
LA Rams | 17 | 22 | .436 |
San Francisco | 17 | 22 | .436 |
Tennessee | 17 | 22 | .436 |
Baltimore | 18 | 23 | .439 |
Cincinnati | 15 | 19 | .441 |
Buffalo | 15 | 17 | .469 |
Houston | 17 | 18 | .486 |
Tampa Bay | 17 | 18 | .486 |
NY Giants | 18 | 19 | .486 |
Pittsburgh | 20 | 21 | .488 |
Detroit | 17 | 17 | .500 |
Oakland | 20 | 20 | .500 |
NY Jets | 20 | 19 | .513 |
Philadelphia | 21 | 19 | .525 |
Miami | 18 | 16 | .529 |
Jacksonville | 22 | 19 | .537 |
LA Chargers | 21 | 18 | .538 |
Chicago | 22 | 18 | .550 |
Carolina | 22 | 17 | .564 |
Minnesota | 22 | 17 | .564 |
Green Bay | 21 | 16 | .568 |
New England | 22 | 16 | .579 |
Atlanta | 20 | 13 | .606 |
Washington | 22 | 14 | .611 |
Kansas City | 26 | 14 | .650 |
New Orleans | 23 | 11 | .676 |
—Ian Allan