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October 30, 2017

Can struggling QBs rebound?

Ryan, Roethlisberger, Newton have struggled

At what point do we give up on guys like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning? Those guys have been great quarterbacks in the past, but they have not been productive this year.

Ryan, Newton and Roethlisberger are all on pace to finish the season with about 20 TD passes. That’s below the total you would expect to get if you didn’t even select a quarterback in your fantasy draft (figuring you’d just pick up somebody later).

Can any of these guys flip things around? Odd are certainly stacked against Manning, who’s now working without Odell Beckham. But the others still have some talented pass catchers at their disposal.

Similarly, will Drew Brees pick up his game? He’s on a meager pace right now – will finish at 25 TD passes if form holds.

We are coming into the halfway point, so I figured it might be useful to look at past years. That is, of previous teams that have played really well in the second halves of seasons, how many of those teams were also really good in September and October?

That is, if a team is going to put up top-5 passing numbers in the second half of a season, do those tend to be the same teams that were really crushing it in the first half of those seasons?

Not necessarily.

Below see a list of the top 50 passing teams of the last 10 years. On this one, I took the top 5 performers from each of the last 10 years, using standard fantasy scoring (4 points for TD passes, and 1 for every 20 yards). No quarterback scrambles; just passing. In fact, to reduce the impact of quarterback injuries and benchings, I used not individuals but teams.

For each of those 50 offenses that played well, we can then look back at their first eight games and see whether they were simply playing well all along. If the teams were perfectly consistent, these top 50 passing offenses would also have been the top 50 passing offenses in the first halves of those years.

Didn’t play out that way, of course. Of these top 50, only about half of them (24) also ranked in the top 5 in their first eight (in the chart, “G 1-8” shows their 1 thru 32 rank in the first half of the season).

About a quarter of the teams (13) didn’t rank in the top 10 in the first half of the season. I’ve got a black dot by those teams. And five of those teams (10 percent) were pretty lousy during the first half, ranking in the bottom 10. In the 2015 season, there were three such teams, with Seattle, Pittsburgh and Washington all going from being bottom-10 passing teams to finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So big turnarounds are at least possible.

I’ve got the huge turnaround teams in bold.

SECOND-HALF PASSING TEAMS (2007-2016)
YearTeamG 1-8YardsTDPPoints
2011New Orleans32,75927246.0
2013Denver12,70426239.2
2011Green Bay12,54227235.1
2011Detroit42,85922231.0
2015• Seattle292,35225217.6
2012New Orleans12,63821215.9
2015• Pittsburgh263,03516215.8
2007• Arizona142,47223215.6
2013• Philadelphia152,43221205.6
2011New England22,55419203.7
2007New England12,47320203.7
2013New Orleans22,62118203.1
2010• New England122,19623201.8
2008New Orleans12,50619201.3
2016Green Bay52,40620200.3
2015• Washington232,39220199.6
2015New Orleans52,62017199.0
2015NY Giants82,43619197.8
2012Dallas102,50918197.5
2013• New England252,66816197.4
2016New Orleans12,56917196.5
2014Indianapolis12,31120195.6
2014New Orleans52,43018193.5
2010• Green Bay112,34419193.2
2012New England52,41918193.0
2014Green Bay72,32519192.3
2016Atlanta22,32419192.2
2007Seattle102,32219192.1
2014Pittsburgh42,55916192.0
2009Minnesota92,39618191.8
2011• Atlanta142,40717188.4
2013Chicago92,39517187.8
2010New Orleans32,30217183.1
2007Indianapolis62,19718181.9
2014• Dallas111,95021181.5
2012Denver22,26717181.4
2007New Orleans82,32416180.2
2008Arizona22,40115180.1
2012Green Bay32,15018179.5
2010Indianapolis22,22217179.1
2016San Diego92,10118177.1
2016New England82,24116176.1
2009New Orleans22,15417175.7
2009Houston42,46113175.1
2010• Houston152,36414174.2
2009San Diego82,26115173.1
2009• Philadelphia132,39813171.9
2008Indianapolis102,17215168.6
2008Green Bay92,05615162.8
2008• New England242,12514162.3

So let’s not give up on some of these teams just yet (except for Manning – he’s dead). Roethlisberger, I think, might flip things around. He’s lost some throwing talent, but his schedule gets a lot more favorable, with a game against the Colts, then four of his next five at home.

Here’s how the teams rank so far, with passing yards per game, touchdown pace (TD passes per 16 games), and fantasy points per game (4 for TD passes, 1 for every 20 yards).

I’m giving you a mixed bag of stats here – PER GAME numbers for yards, and PER SEASON for TD passes – but I think there’s the easier way to digest the info.

PASSING SO FAR (2017 SEASON)
TeamYards/GTD/YrPts/G
New England31832.023.9
Houston25243.423.4
Seattle28734.322.9
Tampa Bay30629.722.7
Kansas City28334.322.7
Philadelphia25838.022.4
Washington27129.721.0
New Orleans27925.120.2
Detroit26427.420.1
Arizona29220.619.7
Green Bay23332.019.6
Dallas22432.019.2
LA Chargers25426.019.2
Oakland24026.018.5
Atlanta26320.618.3
Pittsburgh26320.018.2
Denver24821.317.7
Cincinnati22925.117.7
LA Rams25120.617.7
NY Jets23424.017.7
Minnesota24920.017.5
NY Giants22922.917.1
Carolina23220.016.6
Jacksonville20020.615.1
Miami19420.614.9
San Francisco23712.014.8
Cleveland22314.014.6
Buffalo19218.314.2
Indianapolis22110.013.6
Tennessee20911.413.3
Chicago17616.012.8
Baltimore16816.012.4

—Ian Allan

Matt Ryan Ben Roethlisberger Cam Newton Eli Manning
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