Drew Brees and Matt Ryan threw only 23 and 20 touchdown passes in the regular season, yet those teams are playing in postseason games this weekend. Who saw that coming?

Ryan, after all, was the league MVP a year ago, tossing 38 touchdown passes. He and the rest of the offense never really got in sync in the regular season. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan took a job with the 49ers; that was probably the driver.

With the Saints, they shifted to more of a run-oriented system, with Brees putting up more modest numbers. His touchdown passes dropped from 37 down to 23.

Among quarterbacks who started all 16 games, those are two of the largest declines we’ve seen by quarterbacks in this century. Since 2000, only 10 other quarterbacks have declined by double-digit touchdown passes.

DISAPPEARING TOUCHDOWN PASSES
QuarterbackYearsBeforeAfterDecline
Matthew Stafford, Det.2011-12412021
Peyton Manning, Ind.2004-05492821
Matt Ryan, Atl.2016-17382018
Peyton Manning, Den.2013-14553916
Drew Brees, N.O.2016-17372314
Andy Dalton, Cin.2013-14331914
Russell Wilson, Sea.2015-16342113
Drew Bledsoe, Buff.2002-03241113
Blake Bortles, Jac.2015-16352312
Jeff Garcia, S.F.2001-02322111
Trent Green, K.C.2004-05271710
Brett Favre, G.B.2004-05302010
Eli Manning, NYG2015-1635269
Tom Brady, N.E.2012-1334259
Jake Plummer, Den.2004-0527189
Matthew Stafford, Det.2015-1632248
Eli Manning, NYG2012-1326188

—Ian Allan