Facing a defense overseen by Bill Belichick can't be described as a favorable situation, of course, but it maybe isn't as bad as you might think. New England wasn't a dominant defensive team during the season, finishing 20th or worse against both the run and the pass. It was 5th in points allowed, and a lot better in yards during the second half of the season -- nobody is suggesting it's an easy matchup. But some potential for the Eagle offense.
Set aside, if you wish, the first month of the season, when the Patriots were allowing 32 points per game. They got those issues straightened out and allowed just 14 points per game in their final dozen contests; a total of 16 TDs in those games. But two-thirds of those were played against lesser or struggling offenses and quarterbacks: Broncos, Raiders, and all six against the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. Philadelphia had a top-10 offense: 7th in yards and 3rd in scoring. No Carson Wentz now, of course, but it proved against Minnesota it can put up big numbers with Nick Foles.
We're figuring 2-3 TDs from the Eagles, with about an even chance of making it up to 3 TDs. Should be at least a slightly above-average offense. If the Eagles can come through with a defensive or special teams score (they had 5 TDs during the season, a top-5 number) an upset looks possible.
QUARTERBACK:
Best not to rely too much on the Eagles' season-long passing numbers: 1st in touchdown passes (38), and 14th in yards (248 per game). Most of that was compiled with Carson Wentz at quarterback. and he might have been the league MVP. Nick Foles wasn't nearly as productive in most of his complete games: 237 yards and 4 TDs against a terrible Giants defense, but an average of 205 yards and 1 total TD in a pair of low-scoring wins against the Raiders and Falcons. So it was shocking to see him completing bombs of 40-plus yards to three different receivers against Minnesota's top-ranked pass defense on Sunday, with another such throw to Torrey Smith that maybe should have been caught.
Which Foles we get in Super Bowl LII will go a long way to determining the outcome; he has the shortest resume of any of the key players. It's possible Doug Pederson was hesitant to put too much on Foles' plate in those Raiders and Falcons games, and won't be shy about dialing up deeper throws after that performance. It's also possible Minnesota didn't account for that possibility, a mistake that New England is now less likely to make.
The Patriots finished the year last in pass defense, a ranking built primarily on giving up 300-yard passing performances in their first six games, with 14 TD passes in those contests. After that they allowed just 229 yards per game (which would have ranked 8th) and only 10 TD passes. But they surrendered 293 yards and a touchdown to Blake Bortles last week, so it's certainly possible to put up good numbers against them. It's an above-average pass rush (42 sacks), but Foles is at least average at getting rid of it. He's been sacked about once every 17 attempts during his career; once every 23 attempts this season (and 1 sack in each playoff game). We're putting him down for average numbers; say 250 yards and 1-2 TDs. The way this defense performed for most of the season, just 1 is more likely. But we're not expecting Foles to meltdown with a bunch of sacks and turnovers.
RUNNING BACK:
The Eagles had the league's 3rd-ranked rushing offense during the season, while New England wasn't quite as stout against the run as it traditionally is. It finished 20th, after ranking outside the top 10 just once in the previous five years, and it's 4.7 yards per carry allowed was 2nd-worst. So the Eagles will probably make an effort to exploit that. It's a committee, with Jay Ajayi starting and probably getting close to half the snaps, with LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement divvying up the rest. Ajayi has carried 33 times for 127 yards in the playoffs, Blount (a Patriot last season) 15 times for just 40 yards, but he's scored in each game. Clement won't carry much (3 for 25 in the two games) but will be a bigger part of the passing game (6 catches for 39 yards in the playoffs).
Ajayi will definitely be on the field the most, but Blount looks just as likely to score (and may bring a little extra motivation to the table, although presumably playing in the Super Bowl is enough). Clement makes the most sense in a PPR format.
While Philadelphia has scored those 2 rushing TDs in the first two playoff games, this isn't a great situation for touchdowns. Although below-average against the run in yards (and worse than that in yards per carry), New England allowed only 6 rushing touchdowns all season (plus 1 in the postseason); only the Titans allowed fewer. And Philadelphia was a lot more likely during the season to score touchdowns on passes (38) than runs (9), and that didn't change with Foles in the lineup; all 5 TDs the team scored after he replaced Wentz came on passes. If Philadelphia does make it up to 3 TDs in this game, good chance all of them come through the air (and either Ajayi or Blount or reasonable possibilities to run one in).
(Part II - receivers, kicker and defense tomorrow, followed by combined player rankings for the Super Bowl.)
--Andy Richardson