We're thinking the Eagles will put up average passing numbers. New England ranked last in pass defense during the season, but we're splitting the difference between what they did the first half of the season (definitely the league's softest pass defense) and the second half (a top-10 group). So Philadelphia should have a viable fantasy receiver or two.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Alshon Jeffery is the No. 1, and he's having a nice postseason. After averaging 56 receiving yards and catching 8 TDs in 13 games with Carson Wentz, he totaled only 57 yards and caught 1 TD in two-plus with Nick Foles. But he caught 4 for 61 in the win over Atlanta, then caught all 5 passes thrown his way for 85 yards and 2 TDs against Minnesota.
Nelson Agholor is playing only slightly fewer snaps; he averaged 48 yards and also caught 9 TDs in the regular season (all from Wentz). When Foles lit up the Giants in his first start for these Eagles, Agholor caught 7 balls for 59 yards and a touchdown.
In the playoffs, Agholor hasn't been as involved, catching 3 passes from Foles in each of the two games. That's a step behind Torrey Smith. Smith is playing the 3rd-most snaps, but Foles seems to like throwing to him right now. He's caught 8 passes on 11 targets in the playoffs, totaling 108 yards and 1 TD. He couldn't reel in another deep ball against Minnesota; the defender was able to break it up.
Jeffery, then, seems to be the best bet, but not a lot of separation in the trio. Agholor was similar in the regular season, and Smith has been just a step behind in the postseason. The Patriots allowed 15 TDs to wide receivers during the season, a slightly worse-than-average number. If Foles throws 2 TDs, good chance at least one of these wideouts scores.
Mack Hollins could develop into something down the road, but he's played just about a quarter of the snaps in each of the first two playoff games, catching just one pass.
TIGHT END:
Rob Gronkowski is having a Hall of Fame career, but just maybe Zach Ertz will be slightly better in this game. For one thing, Gronkowski was concussed against Jacksonville and hasn't yet been able to practice. We're expecting him to be available, but it's not definite. And while the Eagles passing game would look better with Wentz, Foles has really locked in on his tight end. In four complete games together, Ertz has been targeted 14, 9, 5 and 8 times -- 9 per game. Those targets have resulted in 26 catches for 262 yard and 1 TD.
New England allowed 5 TDs to tight ends during the season, although none after Week 6. But Marcedes Lewis scored last week, and had another key reception wiped out by a penalty. Jesse James couldn't hang onto one at the goal line in Week 15. Neither of those players is close to Ertz in ability. It wouldn't be surprising if he catches more passes than any other Eagle -- he led the team in catches (74) and yards (824) during the season.
Brent Celek will play around 40 percent of the snaps, but primarily as a blocker; he caught just 13 passes all year. Trey Burton is out there about 20 percent of the time, but he caught more than 2 passes in a game just twice -- the ones Ertz missed all or most of due to a concussion.
KICKER:
Jake Elliott is a rookie, so like most of his teammates he'll be new to the pressure of performing on the biggest stage in the Super Bowl. More important to his ranking, though, is that the Patriots look slightly more likely to win; winning teams are more able to tack on field goals, trailing teams more likely to have to push for touchdowns. During the season, only four teams allowed fewer field goals than New England (22). Patriots allowed just 6 kicking points per game, and an average of 5 in the first two playoffs.
DEFENSE:
There's nothing favorable for the Eagles Defense about matching up with Tom Brady. He threw only 8 interceptions all season losing 3 fumbles. He was sacked 35 times, a little better than average. But the Eagles have a solid pass rush (38 sacks) and have a great track record for opportunism -- top-10 in takeaways five years in a row, including 4th in 2017. They forced a key fumble and had an interception return touchdown against the Vikings, helping turn an early deficit into what turned into a blowout. Brady's not the ideal quarterback to force those turnovers against, but Philadelphia has the personnel to increase the potential. The Eagles typically have excellent return teams, too.
| EAGLES PLAYER PROJECTIONS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pass | Rec | Run | Tot | TD | Points |
| QB | Foles | 248 | 0 | 4 | 252 | 1.78 | 20.2 |
| RB | Ajayi | 0 | 10 | 61 | 71 | .42 | 9.6 |
| TE | Ertz | 0 | 68 | 0 | 68 | .45 | 9.5 |
| WR | Jeffery | 0 | 63 | 0 | 63 | .43 | 8.8 |
| WR | Agholor | 0 | 43 | 1 | 44 | .40 | 6.8 |
| D/ST | Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .20 | 6.8 |
| PK | Elliott | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | 6.6 |
| WR | T.Smith | 0 | 38 | 0 | 38 | .18 | 4.8 |
| RB | Blount | 0 | 1 | 28 | 29 | .22 | 4.2 |
| RB | Clement | 0 | 15 | 15 | 30 | .17 | 4.0 |
| TE | Burton | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 | .07 | 1.0 |
| WR | Hollins | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | .04 | .7 |
| TE | Celek | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | .05 | .6 |
| QB | Sudfeld | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .04 | .4 |
| RB | Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .01 | .4 |
--Andy Richardson