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Fantasy Index Experts Poll

Clay uses depth to win Running Backs category

‘All for One’ beat ‘One for All at the running back position. Paul Charchian was the only analyst to include breakout surprise Kareem Hunt in his top 20, giving himself a huge edge, but Mike Clay’s overall body of work was more compelling, allowing him to capture first place in this category.

Clay, who writes for ESPN, didn’t have any unusually perceptive picks. He wasn’t the highest or lowest on any one player. But enough lesser choices went right for him to outscore everyone.

Joe Mixon, Ty Montgomery, Spencer Ware and Dalvin Cook each showed up on over a third of the ballots. Clay helped his cause by not including any of those backs (Cook very easily could have had a monster season, so there is clearly some chance/luck in this competition).

Clay slotted Christian McCaffrey, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, Bilal Powell and especially Mark Ingram in the teens, and those appear to be the selections that helped him the most. Especially Ingram, who was one of the top half-dozen backs and was named by only eight others. The other backs weren’t standouts, but they contributed, while other analysts tossed up some air balls in that range, with missed picks including Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Paul Perkins, Mike Gillislee and Doug Martin.

Clay missed badly on only two picks, ranking Eddie Lacy 19th and putting DeMarco Murray in his top 5 (only one analyst ranked Murray higher).

Charchian (LeagueSafe) hit it big with Hunt but hurt himself in other areas. Most notably, he was the lowest on Todd Gurley (13th) and Jordan Howard (11th) and the highest on Mixon (12th).

In this competition, every pick by every analyst is scored. The higher he’s ranked, the more he counts towards the overall score. Alvin Kamara, for example, scored 241.4 points. Ken Valis (who won the Fantasy Index Open last year) was the only analyst to include Kamara in his top 20, ranking him 20th, and received 1,448.4 points for that pick (6 x 241.4).

In the past, Valis would have received only 241.4 points for such a pick (241.4 x 1) but over the years I’ve moved away from the 20-1 scoring grid. Using that system, not enough credit is given for hitting on a pick like Hunt or Kamara in the teens. So I shifted to the 25-6 scoring scale. If you move up to a 30-11 scale, then it’s not important enough how you rank the top picks – the premium becomes simply selecting guys who are on the field.

It’s an inexact science, with each scoring system having its different advantages. Mostly I like to score the picks to make the competition more interesting – and it makes sure everyone is taking their recommendations very seriously when they submit their picks in mid-May.

RUNNING BACK RANKINGS (Standard Scoring)
AnalystCompanyPoints
Mike ClayESPN52,058
Paul CharchianLeagueSafe51,838
Jeff RatcliffePro Football Focus51,793
Scott PianowskiYahoo Sports51,601
Tony HolmFantasy Sharks51,380
Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks50,958
L.A. HaleFantasy Gives50,857
Alan SatterleeCharlotte Observer50,538
Sam HendricksExtra Point Press50,265
Bob HenryFootballGuys50,199
Cory BoniniUSA Today Fantasy Sports50,100
Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind49,871
Ryan MurphyEast Berlin, Pa.49,867
Justin EleffFantasy Index Podcast49,793
Jody SmithGridiron Experts49,684
Chris LissRotoWire49,281
Ryan McDowellDynasty League Football49,186
Scott SachsPerfect Season FF48,729
David DoreyThe Huddle47,384
Ken ValisGaithersburg, Md.47,266

As we work through these positions, I’m also tabulating the numbers using “Waiver Wire Scoring.” With that system, the blow is softened for guys who get hurt. Spencer Ware and Dalvin Cook, for example, might have been really productive players. If we could build a time machine and go back to August, probably everyone would include Cook in their top 10. But he got hurt, which is a punch in the gut in this scoring system (especially for David Dorey and Ryan McDowell, who were higher on Cook than everyone else).

In Waiver Wire Scoring, the assumption is made that the poor selections would be replaced with free agents along the way. In a 12-team fantasy league, teams typically start two running backs. So we take the top 24 off the board and give you the production of the 25th-best running back. Bilal Powell scored 124.2 points, ranking 25th in scoring. So in Waiver Wire scoring, players receive credit for points above 124.2. Anybody under that level (whether they scored 10, 50, 80 or 115 points) goes down as a zero.

Using this alternate scoring system, two long-time veterans of the competition move up into the top 2 spots – Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports) and Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press). If you forget about the misses and focus only one which experts did the best job of identifying the top 24 running backs, Pianowski and Hendricks were the best.

RUNNING BACK RANKINGS (Waiver Wire Scoring)
AnalystPointsStd Rk
Scott Pianowski17,5524
Sam Hendricks17,4109
Mike Clay17,3761
Jeff Ratcliffe17,1983
Cory Bonini16,96711
Lenny Pappano16,8806
Michael Nazarek16,84712
Paul Charchian16,6052
Alan Satterlee16,5888
Tony Holm16,5275
L.A. Hale16,4227
Bob Henry16,37110
Jody Smith16,35815
Chris Liss16,16816
Ryan McDowell16,16117
Ryan Murphy15,93213
Justin Eleff15,82114
Ken Valis15,73420
Scott Sachs15,00618
David Dorey14,84119

There’s one position left to score (quarterbacks). Then we’ll crown the overall champion. Heading into the final round, Clay is the leader, followed by Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus). They’re followed by two veterans who’ve both won the competition multiple times – Pianowski and Bob Henry (FootballGuys).

OVERALL RANKINGS (Standard Scoring)
AnalystCompanyPoints
Mike ClayESPN186,510
Jeff RatcliffePro Football Focus185,884
Bob HenryFootballGuys184,537
Scott PianowskiYahoo Sports184,171
Ryan McDowellDynasty League Football183,730
Sam HendricksExtra Point Press183,703
Jody SmithGridiron Experts183,644
Justin EleffFantasy Index Podcast183,497
Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks182,295
Ryan MurphyEast Berlin, Pa.182,217
Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind182,125
Tony HolmFantasy Sharks181,838
Chris LissRotoWire181,815
Alan SatterleeCharlotte Observer181,586
Scott SachsPerfect Season FF181,103
Paul CharchianLeagueSafe180,698
David DoreyThe Huddle179,132
L.A. HaleFantasy Gives178,642
Cory BoniniUSA Today Fantasy Sports177,886
Ken ValisGaithersburg, Md.177,732

Clay and Ratcliffe are also the overall leaders using the Waiver Wire Scoring method.

OVERALL RANKINGS (Waiver Wire Scoring)
AnalystCompanyPointsStd Rk
Mike ClayESPN40,1251
Jeff RatcliffePro Football Focus39,9512
Sam HendricksExtra Point Press39,8276
Justin EleffFantasy Index Podcast39,6298
Ryan McDowellDynasty League Football39,1625
Scott PianowskiYahoo Sports39,0234
Jody SmithGridiron Experts38,8467
Paul CharchianLeagueSafe38,83716
Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind38,77011
Bob HenryFootballGuys38,1963
Ryan MurphyEast Berlin, Pa.38,15110
Tony HolmFantasy Sharks38,03612
Ken ValisGaithersburg, Md.37,92020
Chris LissRotoWire37,81713
Alan SatterleeCharlotte Observer37,79414
Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks37,6369
Cory BoniniUSA Today Fantasy Sports37,47319
Scott SachsPerfect Season FF36,56915
L.A. HaleFantasy Gives36,17818
David DoreyThe Huddle35,51617

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index