‘All for One’ beat ‘One for All at the running back position. Paul Charchian was the only analyst to include breakout surprise Kareem Hunt in his top 20, giving himself a huge edge, but Mike Clay’s overall body of work was more compelling, allowing him to capture first place in this category.
Clay, who writes for ESPN, didn’t have any unusually perceptive picks. He wasn’t the highest or lowest on any one player. But enough lesser choices went right for him to outscore everyone.
Joe Mixon, Ty Montgomery, Spencer Ware and Dalvin Cook each showed up on over a third of the ballots. Clay helped his cause by not including any of those backs (Cook very easily could have had a monster season, so there is clearly some chance/luck in this competition).
Clay slotted Christian McCaffrey, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, Bilal Powell and especially Mark Ingram in the teens, and those appear to be the selections that helped him the most. Especially Ingram, who was one of the top half-dozen backs and was named by only eight others. The other backs weren’t standouts, but they contributed, while other analysts tossed up some air balls in that range, with missed picks including Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Paul Perkins, Mike Gillislee and Doug Martin.
Clay missed badly on only two picks, ranking Eddie Lacy 19th and putting DeMarco Murray in his top 5 (only one analyst ranked Murray higher).
Charchian (LeagueSafe) hit it big with Hunt but hurt himself in other areas. Most notably, he was the lowest on Todd Gurley (13th) and Jordan Howard (11th) and the highest on Mixon (12th).
In this competition, every pick by every analyst is scored. The higher he’s ranked, the more he counts towards the overall score. Alvin Kamara, for example, scored 241.4 points. Ken Valis (who won the Fantasy Index Open last year) was the only analyst to include Kamara in his top 20, ranking him 20th, and received 1,448.4 points for that pick (6 x 241.4).
In the past, Valis would have received only 241.4 points for such a pick (241.4 x 1) but over the years I’ve moved away from the 20-1 scoring grid. Using that system, not enough credit is given for hitting on a pick like Hunt or Kamara in the teens. So I shifted to the 25-6 scoring scale. If you move up to a 30-11 scale, then it’s not important enough how you rank the top picks – the premium becomes simply selecting guys who are on the field.
It’s an inexact science, with each scoring system having its different advantages. Mostly I like to score the picks to make the competition more interesting – and it makes sure everyone is taking their recommendations very seriously when they submit their picks in mid-May.
RUNNING BACK RANKINGS (Standard Scoring) | ||
---|---|---|
Analyst | Company | Points |
Mike Clay | ESPN | 52,058 |
Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 51,838 |
Jeff Ratcliffe | Pro Football Focus | 51,793 |
Scott Pianowski | Yahoo Sports | 51,601 |
Tony Holm | Fantasy Sharks | 51,380 |
Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 50,958 |
L.A. Hale | Fantasy Gives | 50,857 |
Alan Satterlee | Charlotte Observer | 50,538 |
Sam Hendricks | Extra Point Press | 50,265 |
Bob Henry | FootballGuys | 50,199 |
Cory Bonini | USA Today Fantasy Sports | 50,100 |
Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 49,871 |
Ryan Murphy | East Berlin, Pa. | 49,867 |
Justin Eleff | Fantasy Index Podcast | 49,793 |
Jody Smith | Gridiron Experts | 49,684 |
Chris Liss | RotoWire | 49,281 |
Ryan McDowell | Dynasty League Football | 49,186 |
Scott Sachs | Perfect Season FF | 48,729 |
David Dorey | The Huddle | 47,384 |
Ken Valis | Gaithersburg, Md. | 47,266 |
As we work through these positions, I’m also tabulating the numbers using “Waiver Wire Scoring.” With that system, the blow is softened for guys who get hurt. Spencer Ware and Dalvin Cook, for example, might have been really productive players. If we could build a time machine and go back to August, probably everyone would include Cook in their top 10. But he got hurt, which is a punch in the gut in this scoring system (especially for David Dorey and Ryan McDowell, who were higher on Cook than everyone else).
In Waiver Wire Scoring, the assumption is made that the poor selections would be replaced with free agents along the way. In a 12-team fantasy league, teams typically start two running backs. So we take the top 24 off the board and give you the production of the 25th-best running back. Bilal Powell scored 124.2 points, ranking 25th in scoring. So in Waiver Wire scoring, players receive credit for points above 124.2. Anybody under that level (whether they scored 10, 50, 80 or 115 points) goes down as a zero.
Using this alternate scoring system, two long-time veterans of the competition move up into the top 2 spots – Scott Pianowski (Yahoo Sports) and Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press). If you forget about the misses and focus only one which experts did the best job of identifying the top 24 running backs, Pianowski and Hendricks were the best.
RUNNING BACK RANKINGS (Waiver Wire Scoring) | ||
---|---|---|
Analyst | Points | Std Rk |
Scott Pianowski | 17,552 | 4 |
Sam Hendricks | 17,410 | 9 |
Mike Clay | 17,376 | 1 |
Jeff Ratcliffe | 17,198 | 3 |
Cory Bonini | 16,967 | 11 |
Lenny Pappano | 16,880 | 6 |
Michael Nazarek | 16,847 | 12 |
Paul Charchian | 16,605 | 2 |
Alan Satterlee | 16,588 | 8 |
Tony Holm | 16,527 | 5 |
L.A. Hale | 16,422 | 7 |
Bob Henry | 16,371 | 10 |
Jody Smith | 16,358 | 15 |
Chris Liss | 16,168 | 16 |
Ryan McDowell | 16,161 | 17 |
Ryan Murphy | 15,932 | 13 |
Justin Eleff | 15,821 | 14 |
Ken Valis | 15,734 | 20 |
Scott Sachs | 15,006 | 18 |
David Dorey | 14,841 | 19 |
There’s one position left to score (quarterbacks). Then we’ll crown the overall champion. Heading into the final round, Clay is the leader, followed by Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus). They’re followed by two veterans who’ve both won the competition multiple times – Pianowski and Bob Henry (FootballGuys).
OVERALL RANKINGS (Standard Scoring) | ||
---|---|---|
Analyst | Company | Points |
Mike Clay | ESPN | 186,510 |
Jeff Ratcliffe | Pro Football Focus | 185,884 |
Bob Henry | FootballGuys | 184,537 |
Scott Pianowski | Yahoo Sports | 184,171 |
Ryan McDowell | Dynasty League Football | 183,730 |
Sam Hendricks | Extra Point Press | 183,703 |
Jody Smith | Gridiron Experts | 183,644 |
Justin Eleff | Fantasy Index Podcast | 183,497 |
Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 182,295 |
Ryan Murphy | East Berlin, Pa. | 182,217 |
Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 182,125 |
Tony Holm | Fantasy Sharks | 181,838 |
Chris Liss | RotoWire | 181,815 |
Alan Satterlee | Charlotte Observer | 181,586 |
Scott Sachs | Perfect Season FF | 181,103 |
Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 180,698 |
David Dorey | The Huddle | 179,132 |
L.A. Hale | Fantasy Gives | 178,642 |
Cory Bonini | USA Today Fantasy Sports | 177,886 |
Ken Valis | Gaithersburg, Md. | 177,732 |
Clay and Ratcliffe are also the overall leaders using the Waiver Wire Scoring method.
OVERALL RANKINGS (Waiver Wire Scoring) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Analyst | Company | Points | Std Rk |
Mike Clay | ESPN | 40,125 | 1 |
Jeff Ratcliffe | Pro Football Focus | 39,951 | 2 |
Sam Hendricks | Extra Point Press | 39,827 | 6 |
Justin Eleff | Fantasy Index Podcast | 39,629 | 8 |
Ryan McDowell | Dynasty League Football | 39,162 | 5 |
Scott Pianowski | Yahoo Sports | 39,023 | 4 |
Jody Smith | Gridiron Experts | 38,846 | 7 |
Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 38,837 | 16 |
Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 38,770 | 11 |
Bob Henry | FootballGuys | 38,196 | 3 |
Ryan Murphy | East Berlin, Pa. | 38,151 | 10 |
Tony Holm | Fantasy Sharks | 38,036 | 12 |
Ken Valis | Gaithersburg, Md. | 37,920 | 20 |
Chris Liss | RotoWire | 37,817 | 13 |
Alan Satterlee | Charlotte Observer | 37,794 | 14 |
Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 37,636 | 9 |
Cory Bonini | USA Today Fantasy Sports | 37,473 | 19 |
Scott Sachs | Perfect Season FF | 36,569 | 15 |
L.A. Hale | Fantasy Gives | 36,178 | 18 |
David Dorey | The Huddle | 35,516 | 17 |
—Ian Allan