The league has been trying to legislate big hits out of the game. They want to make the game safer. This is fine; nobody wants to see people get hurt, and now there’s a greater awareness of the potential dangers of head trauma. But I notice that as they’ve changed the rules, it’s having an impact on what we’re seeing on the field.
The big blowup hits (especially on receivers running across the middle of the field) and helmet-to-helmet collisions are being phased out of the game, but those are the hits that have tended to generate a lot of incompletions, fumbles and interceptions. So as those plays have been outlawed, we’re also seeing declines in turnovers.
In each of the last two years, teams have averaged under 9 fumbles per season. I think those are the two lowest totals in league history. Back in the first three seasons of this century, teams were averaging over 12 fumbles per year.
Similarly, teams have averaged only 13 interceptions the last two years. I believe those are the two lowest totals in the modern era. Go back 15 years, and teams were averaging 17 interceptions per season.
With fewer takeaways (and also with changes to touchback rules) teams are also reasonably scoring fewer touchdowns on returns. Teams have averaged about 3 such touchdowns per year now, with the averages the last two years being two of the three lowest of the century. Go back to the start of the 32-team era, and teams were averaging almost 4 such touchdowns per season. (On the touchdown figures below, they include safeties and scores on returns of failed conversions – awarding 2 points for each.)
Sacks have been OK. Defenses averaged 37 last year, which is an above-average total in comparison to the other seasons this century.
But scoring for defenses in typical fantasy leagues is down. For those using standard basic scoring (6 points for touchdowns, 2 for takeaways and 1 for sacks) the three lowest-scoring seasons for defenses have come in the last three years.
| DEFENSIVE AVERAGES SINCE 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | TD | Fum | Int | Sack | F Pts |
| 2000 | 3.57 | 13.0 | 17.1 | 39.8 | 121.5 |
| 2001 | 3.96 | 12.4 | 17.6 | 38.6 | 122.3 |
| 2002 | 3.78 | 12.4 | 16.5 | 36.8 | 117.3 |
| 2003 | 3.78 | 11.6 | 16.8 | 34.1 | 113.7 |
| 2004 | 3.91 | 11.8 | 16.4 | 37.4 | 117.2 |
| 2005 | 3.15 | 12.1 | 15.8 | 36.9 | 111.7 |
| 2006 | 3.47 | 11.8 | 16.3 | 36.3 | 113.2 |
| 2007 | 4.38 | 11.8 | 16.7 | 34.4 | 117.8 |
| 2008 | 3.97 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 32.4 | 105.8 |
| 2009 | 3.52 | 10.8 | 16.4 | 34.4 | 110.0 |
| 2010 | 3.82 | 10.8 | 16.0 | 35.3 | 111.9 |
| 2011 | 3.69 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 37.1 | 109.8 |
| 2012 | 4.32 | 10.3 | 14.6 | 36.5 | 112.3 |
| 2013 | 4.05 | 9.8 | 15.7 | 40.5 | 115.7 |
| 2014 | 3.43 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 37.9 | 105.8 |
| 2015 | 3.55 | 9.6 | 13.6 | 37.1 | 104.8 |
| 2016 | 2.66 | 8.8 | 13.0 | 34.9 | 94.4 |
| 2017 | 3.29 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 37.3 | 101.2 |
Looking at the 55 defenses since 2000 that have finished with under 80 points in a season, half have come from the last four years (in bold). The other half comes from the previous 14 years combined. I’ve got the 2017 season tagged with black dots.
The Raiders have Khalil Mack (pictured), who’s one of the half dozen best defensive players in the league. But that didn’t stop them from finishing with some of the worst defensive numbers by any team in the last 18 years.
| LOW-SCORING DEFENSES SINCE 2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | TD | Fum | Int | Sack | Points |
| 2016 | NY Jets | 1 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 57 |
| 2006 | Washington | 2 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 57 |
| 2016 | Cleveland | 1 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 58 |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 58 |
| 2017 | • Oakland | 0 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 59 |
| 2012 | Kansas City | 1 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 61 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 2 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 62 |
| 2012 | Philadelphia | 1 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 62 |
| 2012 | Oakland | 0 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 63 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | 0 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 63 |
| 2009 | Jacksonville | 0 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 64 |
| 2008 | Denver | 2 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 64 |
| 2017 | • Cleveland | 1 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 66 |
| 2010 | Houston | 0 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 66 |
| 2008 | Washington | 1 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 66 |
| 2015 | Dallas | 2 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 67 |
| 2000 | Minnesota | 0 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 67 |
| 2017 | • NY Jets | 0 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 68 |
| 2013 | Houston | 2 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 68 |
| 2010 | Jacksonville | 1 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 68 |
| 2015 | Chicago | 0 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 69 |
| 2004 | Oakland | 1 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 69 |
| 2003 | Houston | 1 | 8 | 14 | 19 | 69 |
| 2012 | Detroit | 0 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 70 |
| 2016 | Jacksonville | 2 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 71 |
| 2010 | Denver | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 71 |
| 2009 | St. Louis | 1 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 71 |
| 2014 | New Orleans | 0 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 72 |
| 2012 | Jacksonville | 1 | 11 | 12 | 20 | 72 |
| 2016 | LA Rams | 1 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 73 |
| 2014 | NY Jets | 0 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 73 |
| 2016 | New Orleans | 0 | 12 | 9 | 30 | 74 |
| 2009 | Washington | 0 | 6 | 11 | 40 | 74 |
| 2017 | • Indianapolis | 1 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 75 |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 0 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 75 |
| 2016 | Cincinnati | 0 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 75 |
| 2014 | Washington | 0 | 12 | 7 | 37 | 75 |
| 2013 | San Diego | 1 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 75 |
| 2007 | Philadelphia | 0 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 75 |
| 2017 | • San Francisco | 1 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 76 |
| 2016 | Detroit | 3 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 76 |
| 2016 | Dallas | 0 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 76 |
| 2003 | San Diego | 1 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 76 |
| 2009 | Oakland | 0 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 77 |
| 2000 | Arizona | 2 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 77 |
| 2015 | San Diego | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 78 |
| 2011 | Cleveland | 1 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 78 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 1 | 16 | 4 | 30 | 78 |
| 2001 | Minnesota | 2 | 10 | 8 | 30 | 78 |
| 2017 | • NY Giants | 2 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 79 |
| 2016 | Indianapolis | 2 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 79 |
| 2016 | Houston | 2 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 79 |
| 2016 | Chicago | 3 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 79 |
| 2004 | Dallas | 0 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 79 |
| 2003 | Arizona | 2 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 79 |
—Ian Allan