I see there’s talk about Allen Robinson maybe getting the franchise tag. He’s Jacksonville’s best wide receiver, the story goes, so best to protect him from signing with another team. I don’t see it.
Robinson is a nice player. Maybe a very good one. He came up with 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs in 2015. But I don’t know that the Jaguars want to tie up a lot of money in him.
The franchise tag is $16 million for 2018. I don’t think Robinson is worth that kind of coin.
He’s coming off reconstructive knee surgery, for starters, so there are questions about his health and his explosiveness. Did he leave any speed on the surgeon’s table?
And is Robinson a truly elite receiver? He’s a larger receiver (6-3, 215) but he’s not a matchup nightmare – he doesn’t use that size to dominate against smaller defensive backs. And he’s got below-average speed; he ran a 4.60 at the combine in 2014; even prior to his injury, he wasn’t running away from people.
Robinson missed almost all of last year, and he also was a disappointment the previous year. He dropped too many balls and didn’t make enough big catches downfield. In the 2016 season they sent 151 passes his way, and he caught fewer than half of them, averaging under 6 yards per pass play. Of the 40 other wide receivers with at least 100 targets, only two averaged fewer yards per target, and neither is starting anymore (Tavon Austin, Jeremy Kerley).
Some of those struggles, of course, can be attributed to being saddled with erratic Blake Bortles. But I wouldn’t be comfortable paying Robinson as if it were certain he was going to be one of the league’s 20 best wide receivers.
| YARDS PER PASS TARGET (2016) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Yd/Tgt |
| 1. | Julio Jones, Atl. | 129 | 83 | 1,409 | 17.0 | 6 | 10.92 |
| 2. | DeSean Jackson, Wash. | 100 | 56 | 1,005 | 17.9 | 4 | 10.05 |
| 3. | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 117 | 78 | 1,173 | 15.0 | 8 | 10.03 |
| 4. | A.J. Green, Cin. | 100 | 66 | 964 | 14.6 | 4 | 9.64 |
| 5. | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 121 | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 9.40 |
| 6. | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 155 | 91 | 1,448 | 15.9 | 6 | 9.34 |
| 7. | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 114 | 79 | 1,041 | 13.2 | 3 | 9.13 |
| 8. | Marvin Jones, Det. | 103 | 55 | 930 | 16.9 | 4 | 9.03 |
| 9. | Kenny Britt, L.A. | 111 | 68 | 1,002 | 14.7 | 5 | 9.03 |
| 10. | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 125 | 94 | 1,128 | 12.0 | 7 | 9.02 |
| 11. | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | 119 | 69 | 1,059 | 15.3 | 7 | 8.90 |
| 12. | Mike Wallace, Balt. | 116 | 72 | 1,017 | 14.1 | 4 | 8.77 |
| 13. | Rishard Matthews, Tenn. | 108 | 65 | 945 | 14.5 | 9 | 8.75 |
| 14. | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 132 | 83 | 1,153 | 13.9 | 5 | 8.73 |
| 15. | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 131 | 94 | 1,136 | 12.1 | 4 | 8.67 |
| 16. | Willie Snead, N.O. | 104 | 72 | 895 | 12.4 | 4 | 8.61 |
| 17. | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 154 | 106 | 1,284 | 12.1 | 12 | 8.34 |
| 18. | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 152 | 97 | 1,257 | 13.0 | 14 | 8.27 |
| 19. | Davante Adams, G.B. | 121 | 75 | 997 | 13.3 | 12 | 8.24 |
| 20. | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 105 | 58 | 857 | 14.8 | 4 | 8.16 |
| 21. | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 105 | 63 | 851 | 13.5 | 3 | 8.10 |
| 22. | Odell Beckham, NYG | 169 | 101 | 1,367 | 13.5 | 10 | 8.09 |
| 23. | Stefon Diggs, Minn. | 112 | 84 | 903 | 10.8 | 3 | 8.06 |
| 24. | Brandon LaFell, Cin. | 107 | 64 | 862 | 13.5 | 6 | 8.06 |
| 25. | Golden Tate, Det. | 135 | 91 | 1,077 | 11.8 | 4 | 7.98 |
| 26. | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 118 | 63 | 941 | 14.9 | 7 | 7.97 |
| 27. | Steve Smith, Balt. | 101 | 70 | 799 | 11.4 | 5 | 7.91 |
| 28. | Mike Evans, T.B. | 173 | 96 | 1,321 | 13.8 | 12 | 7.64 |
| 29. | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 137 | 79 | 1,032 | 13.1 | 5 | 7.53 |
| 30. | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 144 | 90 | 1,083 | 12.0 | 5 | 7.52 |
| 31. | Terrelle Pryor, Clev. | 140 | 77 | 1,007 | 13.1 | 4 | 7.19 |
| 32. | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 159 | 98 | 1,106 | 11.3 | 3 | 6.96 |
| 33. | Michael Crabtree, Oak. | 145 | 89 | 1,003 | 11.3 | 8 | 6.92 |
| 34. | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 117 | 73 | 804 | 11.0 | 3 | 6.87 |
| 35. | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 150 | 107 | 1,023 | 9.6 | 6 | 6.82 |
| 36. | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 105 | 65 | 683 | 10.5 | 8 | 6.50 |
| 37. | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 151 | 78 | 954 | 12.2 | 4 | 6.32 |
| 38. | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 128 | 59 | 788 | 13.4 | 3 | 6.16 |
| 39. | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 151 | 73 | 883 | 12.1 | 6 | 5.85 |
| 40. | Jeremy Kerley, S.F. | 115 | 64 | 667 | 10.4 | 3 | 5.80 |
| 41. | Tavon Austin, L.A. | 106 | 58 | 509 | 8.8 | 3 | 4.80 |
Jacksonville has plenty of other talent at wide receiver, making it less pressing to re-sign Robinson. They also drafted Marqise Lee in 2014; he’ll also be a free agent, and they might opt to sign him instead. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole both had very good rookie seasons; they’ll both be among the team’s three main wide receivers. They’ve got Allen Hurns, who’s got some ability, but they might not want him back without taking a pay cut.
Will be an interesting offseason in Jacksonville because it also has a big decision to make at quarterback. If they want to keep Blake Bortles, he will cost $19 million in 2018. They could reasonably instead choose to cut him loose and use that money on somebody else. It might make a lot of sense to pay a little more to get Kirk Cousins or to save some money at the position by bringing in Case Keenum.
—Ian Allan