For the third year in a row, a team that didn’t finish with a winning record has gone on to make it to the Super Bowl in its next season. Philadelphia went 7-9 in 2016, and Carolina and Atlanta pulled similar turnarounds the previous two years. If we’re to start looking at teams that just won 7-8 games, the candidates for 2018 would include Cincinnati, Washington, Green Bay and Arizona.
But the larger body of work suggest that teams that finish with good records are more likely to make the final step the next year.
Of the last 20 Super Bowls, only 13 of those 40 teams failed to finish with a winning record the previous season. And it drops to only 7 of 32 if you look only at the move to eight 4-team divisions.
Instead, almost half of the last 40 teams to play in Super Bowls won at least 11 games the previous year. And the trend has been stronger recently (thanks in part to the Patriots cranking out appearances). In the last 14 Super Bowls, only one of those games didn’t include a team that won at least 11 games in its previous season (20 of 28 total for those games).
If we’re to consider 11-plus wins as a prerequisite for making the game in 2018, candidates include Philadelphia, New England, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina and the Rams.
On the presentation below, I’ve got teams that didn’t finish with winning records in bold.
| SUPER BOWLS (previous year's W-L) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Loser |
| 1998 | Denver (12-4) | Atlanta (7-9) |
| 1999 | St. Louis (4-12) | Tennessee (8-8) |
| 2000 | Baltimore (8-8) | NY Giants (7-9) |
| 2001 | New England (5-11) | St. Louis (10-6) |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay (9-7) | Oakland (10-6) |
| 2003 | New England (9-7) | Carolina (7-9) |
| 2004 | New England (14-2) | Philadelphia (12-4) |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh (15-1) | Seattle (9-7) |
| 2006 | Indianapolis (14-2) | Chicago (11-5) |
| 2007 | New England (12-4) | NY Giants (8-8) |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh (10-6) | Arizona (8-8) |
| 2009 | New Orleans (8-8) | Indianapolis (12-4) |
| 2010 | Green Bay (11-5) | Pittsburgh (9-7) |
| 2011 | NY Giants (10-6) | New England (14-2) |
| 2012 | Baltimore (12-4) | San Francisco (13-3) |
| 2013 | Seattle (11-5) | Denver (13-3) |
| 2014 | New England (12-4) | Seattle (13-3) |
| 2015 | Denver (12-4) | Carolina (7-8-1) |
| 2016 | New England (12-4) | Atlanta (8-8) |
| 2017 | Philadelphia (7-9) | New England (14-2) |
—Ian Allan