Penn State runner Saquon Barkley is going to be a top-10 draft pick in April -- maybe top-5, to the Colts or Giants, and it's even possible the Browns will consider him at No. 1 overall. Assuming he is selected in those first 10 picks, there's a lot of recent evidence indicating he'll put up top fantasy numbers right away.
Over the last 20 years, 19 running backs have been selected in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft. A whopping three quarters of those backs (14 of 19, or 74 percent) went over 1,000 total yards as rookies. A third of them (six) went over 1,500 total yards, and nearly half (eight) scored at least 10 TDs.
That doesn't guarantee they'll go on to have great careers. Trent Richardson and a pair of 2005 backs, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams, ended up being disappointments, with injuries a factor for Williams. But the overall track record is really good.
RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED IN TOP-10, 1998-PRESENT | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
1999 | 4 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 1553 | 586 | 2139 | 17 |
2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 363 | 1994 | 16 |
2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 296 | 1660 | 6 |
1998 | 9 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1223 | 421 | 1644 | 17 |
2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1341 | 268 | 1609 | 13 |
2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 367 | 1603 | 10 |
2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 302 | 1342 | 10 |
2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1317 | 12 |
2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 742 | 1307 | 9 |
2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 188 | 1294 | 10 |
2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 81 | 1259 | 6 |
2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 1139 | 5 |
2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 651 | 1086 | 7 |
1999 | 5 | Ricky Williams, N.O. | 884 | 172 | 1056 | 2 |
2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 |
2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 373 | 208 | 581 | 2 |
1998 | 5 | Curtis Enis, Chi. | 497 | 20 | 517 | 0 |
2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 157 | 440 | 1 |
2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 272 | 3 | 275 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson