The Packers signed a couple of big-ticket free agents yesterday, Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson. They also released Jordy Nelson, another somewhat surprising move. It's a reminder that Ted Thompson, who made the decisions for more than a decade in a conservative, free-agency averse style, isn't calling the shots anymore.
Fantasy-wise, it's the Graham signing that was one of the day's most noteworthy ones. One of the game's best tight ends of recent years gets paired with arguably the game's best quarterback. If you're drafting today (and insanely, some people actually are) Graham is the player signed yesterday who will probably cause the most excitement in the early rounds.
The arguments in favor are clear. Graham caught 10 TDs last year, and he's now working with one of the few quarterbacks with a great chance of throwing 35-40. Seems like a great landing spot for him. But is it?
Forget the argument that Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw to his tight ends. Martellus Bennett was hurt, Jared Cook has long been overrated, Richard Rodgers is terrible. The last time he had a healthy, highly capable receiver at the position, Jermichael Finley caught 55-61 passes for 667-767 yards three times in four years (and was hurt in the fourth). Those are possible numbers for Graham, and he's one of the league's elite red-zone threats.
But: Back in New Orleans, Graham was a go-to player. Four years in a row, he caught 85-plus passes. His percentage of the team's passing game -- catches, yards, touchdowns -- was at least 20-24 percent in those seasons, including years where he caught 30 and 41 percent of the touchdowns.
In Seattle the last three seasons, he was working in an offense and with a quarterback that likes to spread the ball around. He caught 18 TDs, but averaged a more modest 57 catches. In those seasons he was down around 17-18 percent of the catches and yards, and a quarter of the touchdown passes (setting aside 2015, when he was hurt for a good chunk of the season and scored only twice). And he's going to a similar offense, one that isn't built around forcing the ball to any one player. That's what I'm expecting for Graham again this year.
| JIMMY GRAHAM, PERCENT OF OFFENSE, 2011-2017 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Player | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2011 | N.O. | Graham | 21% | 24% | 24% |
| 2012 | N.O. | Graham | 20% | 19% | 21% |
| 2013 | N.O. | Graham | 19% | 24% | 41% |
| 2014 | N.O. | Graham | 19% | 18% | 30% |
| 2016 | Sea. | Graham | 18% | 21% | 26% |
| 2017 | Sea. | Graham | 17% | 13% | 29% |
On the other hand, Nelson's release should give Graham a little boost. While Rodgers won't force the ball into any one receiver, he and Nelson had a special rapport in the last three seasons both players were healthy all year (2011, 2014 and 2016). That's a lot of catches, yards and touchdowns suddenly up for grabs for Green Bay's offense.
| JORDY NELSON, PERCENT OF OFFENSE W/RODGERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2011 | Nelson | 18% | 24% | 29% |
| 2014 | Nelson | 28% | 34% | 34% |
| 2016 | Nelson | 24% | 28% | 35% |
Nelson is gone, so maybe it will be Graham that steps into that No. 1 receiver void. But I'm thinking it will be more like Seattle the last few years: Graham a very good tight end and primary red-zone target, but not putting up the kind of overall numbers he managed in New Orleans. There's also the fact that Graham is 31, old for a tight end. Like Nelson, he's not as young as he used to be, and doesn't have the same separation skills and leaping ability.
Nelson, incidentally, might not be out of work long. There's a report that the Raiders are interested (and if they sign him, might then release Michael Crabtree).
--Andy Richardson