San Francisco has brought in Jerick McKinnon as its lead back, and there's a lot of optimism about him. The team doesn't have any other proven backs (second-year guys Matt Breida and Joe Williams), and head coach Kyle Shanahan has the great history with Devonta Freeman in Atlanta. McKinnon, one theory goes, will be Shanahan's new Freeman.
But I think McKinnon needs to show a little more before anyone thinks he suddenly, in his fifth season, merits the kind of enthusiasm he's getting in fantasy circles. The last two years, he's averaged 3.4 and 3.8 yards per carry as part of a committee in Minnesota. He's had opportunities, with Adrian Peterson being suspended and hurt and then Dalvin Cook going down last season, and he's never really stood out.
McKinnon has good speed; he ran a 4.41 at the combine back in 2014. But that hasn't translated into a lot of big plays at the NFL level. A year ago, he had only 2 runs of 20-plus yards. That's half as many as Cook (4) in more than twice as many attempts (150-74). Among backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, that's one of the lower rates in the league.
| RUNS OF 20-PLUS YARDS, 2017 (100 ATTEMPTS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TDs | 20+ | Pct |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 133 | 644 | 4.8 | 3 | 7 | 5.3% |
| Bilal Powell, NYJ | 178 | 772 | 4.3 | 5 | 9 | 5.1% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 230 | 1,124 | 4.9 | 12 | 11 | 4.8% |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 105 | 458 | 4.4 | 2 | 5 | 4.8% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1,327 | 4.9 | 8 | 12 | 4.4% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 287 | 1,138 | 4.0 | 6 | 12 | 4.2% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 6.1 | 8 | 5 | 4.2% |
| LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 173 | 766 | 4.4 | 2 | 7 | 4.0% |
| Dion Lewis, N.E. | 180 | 896 | 5.0 | 6 | 7 | 3.9% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 156 | 628 | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 3.8% |
| • Cam Newton, Car. | 139 | 754 | 5.4 | 6 | 5 | 3.6% |
| Orleans Darkwa, NYG | 171 | 751 | 4.4 | 5 | 6 | 3.5% |
| Alfred Morris, Dall. | 115 | 547 | 4.8 | 1 | 4 | 3.5% |
| Latavius Murray, Minn. | 216 | 842 | 3.9 | 8 | 7 | 3.2% |
| Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 165 | 552 | 3.3 | 4 | 5 | 3.0% |
| Jay Ajayi, Mia.-Phil. | 208 | 876 | 4.2 | 1 | 6 | 2.9% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 279 | 1,305 | 4.7 | 13 | 8 | 2.9% |
| C.J. Anderson, Den. | 245 | 1,007 | 4.1 | 3 | 7 | 2.9% |
| Derrick Henry, Tenn. | 176 | 744 | 4.2 | 5 | 5 | 2.8% |
| Alex Collins, Balt. | 212 | 973 | 4.6 | 6 | 6 | 2.8% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 196 | 865 | 4.4 | 7 | 5 | 2.6% |
| Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 240 | 938 | 3.9 | 8 | 6 | 2.5% |
| Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 206 | 853 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 | 2.4% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 207 | 891 | 4.3 | 7 | 5 | 2.4% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 242 | 983 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 2.1% |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 105 | 465 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 1.9% |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 276 | 1,122 | 4.1 | 9 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 111 | 476 | 4.3 | 0 | 2 | 1.8% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 284 | 1,105 | 3.9 | 8 | 5 | 1.8% |
| Kerwynn Williams, Ariz. | 120 | 426 | 3.6 | 1 | 2 | 1.7% |
| DeMarco Murray, Tenn. | 184 | 659 | 3.6 | 6 | 3 | 1.6% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 268 | 1,040 | 3.9 | 9 | 4 | 1.5% |
| Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 150 | 570 | 3.8 | 3 | 2 | 1.3% |
| Adrian Peterson, N.O.-Az. | 156 | 529 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 1.3% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 178 | 626 | 3.5 | 4 | 2 | 1.1% |
| Matt Forte, NYJ | 103 | 381 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 | 1.0% |
| LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 321 | 1,291 | 4.0 | 9 | 3 | 0.9% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 108 | 423 | 3.9 | 3 | 1 | 0.9% |
| Chris Ivory, Jac. | 112 | 382 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 117 | 435 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 | 0.9% |
| Doug Martin, T.B. | 138 | 406 | 2.9 | 3 | 1 | 0.7% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 153 | 556 | 3.6 | 4 | 1 | 0.7% |
| Javorius Allen, Balt. | 153 | 591 | 3.9 | 4 | 1 | 0.7% |
| Samaje Perine, Wash. | 175 | 603 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6% |
| Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 198 | 680 | 3.4 | 6 | 1 | 0.5% |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 238 | 888 | 3.7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Frank Gore, Ind. | 261 | 961 | 3.7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Mike Gillislee, N.E. | 104 | 383 | 3.7 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
Doesn't mean McKinnon can't be a great fantasy back. A guy who fared worse than him in this area, LeVeon Bell, certainly was. But a lot of real duds down near the bottom, too. It's too soon, I think, to say he'll be so good that he'll be featured in San Francisco. The Niners could still add somebody else in the draft, or work in one of their second-year backs. So we'll see.
--Andy Richardson