Some of these first-round quarterbacks scare me. Especially Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I worry that they might not be able to throw the ball well enough.
With Allen, of course, his arm is a rocket launcher. He can really zip it. But there are questions about touch, accuracy and decision making. He completed only 56 percent of his passes in each of his last two years at Wyoming, so you have to wonder if they’ll ever be able to get him properly dialed in.
Zach Mettenberger, for example, can really spin it. I saw Bryce Petty in a preseason game in 2016, and it was apparent that he’s got an arm that’s stronger than the vast majority of NFL starters. Paxton Lynch has a cannon, and the Broncos haven’t been able to do anything with him. Cam Newton has a really strong arm, but way too many of his throws go sailing past his receivers.
Allen might turn into a less mobile version of Newton.
Jackson in college also missed on too many throws. He never completed 60 percent at Louisville. It could take him considerable time to be polished into a viable NFL passer, and it might simply never happen.
At least with Jackson, there’s the elite mobility. And that’s more of a given. With quarterbacking, there’s the hit-miss dynamic of teams not being able to identify and develop players – it’s hard to tell who will translate to the pro level. Who would have thought that Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Brady Quinn and so many others would miss so badly?
But with rushing, what you see is what you get. If a quarterback can run at the college level, that’s a good indication that he’ll also be able to do that in the pros.
Looking at quarterbacks drafted since 2000, I see 29 who ran for over 500 yards in a season in college. Almost all of those guys then used their mobility to also be productive runners at the pros.
And when it comes to rushing production, Jackson is right there with the best. He could be a Newton-Kaepernick-Vick type weapon as a runner when he’s on the field.
| COLLEGE QUARTERBACKS / RUSHING STATS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 232 | 1,601 | 6.90 | 18 |
| 2017 | Lamar Jackson | 260 | 1,571 | 6.04 | 21 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 264 | 1,473 | 5.58 | 20 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 201 | 1,410 | 7.01 | 21 |
| 2010 | Colin Kaepernick | 173 | 1,206 | 6.97 | 20 |
| 2009 | Colin Kaepernick | 161 | 1,183 | 7.35 | 16 |
| 2008 | Colin Kaepernick | 161 | 1,130 | 7.02 | 17 |
| 2015 | Deshaun Watson | 207 | 1,105 | 5.34 | 12 |
| 2004 | Vince Young | 167 | 1,079 | 6.46 | 14 |
| 2005 | Vince Young | 155 | 1,050 | 6.77 | 12 |
| 2003 | Vince Young | 135 | 998 | 7.39 | 11 |
| 2007 | Jake Locker | 172 | 986 | 5.73 | 13 |
| 2015 | Lamar Jackson | 163 | 960 | 5.89 | 11 |
| 2009 | Tim Tebow | 217 | 910 | 4.19 | 14 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 210 | 895 | 4.26 | 23 |
| 2008 | Robert Griffin III | 173 | 843 | 4.87 | 13 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 135 | 770 | 5.70 | 15 |
| 2013 | Johnny Manziel | 144 | 759 | 5.27 | 9 |
| 2012 | Marcus Mariota | 106 | 752 | 7.09 | 5 |
| 2013 | Marcus Mariota | 96 | 715 | 7.45 | 9 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | 179 | 699 | 3.91 | 10 |
| 1999 | Michael Vick | 131 | 682 | 5.21 | 9 |
| 2008 | Tim Tebow | 176 | 673 | 3.82 | 12 |
| 2014 | Carson Wentz | 138 | 642 | 4.65 | 6 |
| 2010 | Robert Griffin III | 149 | 635 | 4.26 | 8 |
| 2004 | Alex Smith | 135 | 631 | 4.67 | 10 |
| 2016 | Deshaun Watson | 165 | 629 | 3.81 | 9 |
| 2000 | Michael Vick | 104 | 617 | 5.93 | 8 |
| 2007 | Colin Kaepernick | 105 | 593 | 5.65 | 6 |
The Ravens say Joe Flacco is their starter. They don’t want to hurry Jackson. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the transition begins this season. Certainly it would make some sense to at least put in Jackson as a change-of-pace option.
Baltimore has multiple coaches on its staff who have worked with mobile quarterbacks in the past. Marty Mornhinweg coached Michael Vick in Philadelphia. Greg Roman was with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo. So I would think those guys would have some idea of how to incorporate Jackson.
With Flacco the offense has been stodgy – they can either run, or Flacco can stand in the pocket and make throws. With Jackson, there would be the added dimension of him sometimes taking off for long gains. And while Jackson’s accuracy and decision making isn’t great, his passing might not be that much worse than Flacco’s.
—Ian Allan