Are we sure that Saquon Barkley is a can’t-miss running back? That tends to be the general feel with most running backs chosen early in NFL drafts, after all, yet a lot of them come up short at the pro level.
With Barkley being a Penn State guy, you can’t help but think of Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis in the ‘90s. All of those guys were Saquon-type stars, and they all missed.
If we look at Barkley in comparison with other running backs chosen in the top 10 in the last 20 years, he’s slightly below-average in terms of rushing yards. That’s looking at rushing yards in each guy’s final college season.
TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS -- RUSHING YARDS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 369 | 2,158 | 5.85 | 22 |
1999 | 5 | Ricky Williams, N.O. | 361 | 2,124 | 5.88 | 28 |
2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 326 | 1,834 | 5.63 | 20 |
2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 325 | 1,830 | 5.63 | 17 |
2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 289 | 1,821 | 6.30 | 23 |
2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 334 | 1,798 | 5.38 | 17 |
2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 200 | 1,740 | 8.70 | 18 |
2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 283 | 1,679 | 5.93 | 24 |
2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 253 | 1,603 | 6.34 | 16 |
1999 | 4 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 242 | 1,416 | 5.85 | 19 |
1998 | 5 | Curtis Enis, Chi. | 228 | 1,363 | 5.98 | 20 |
1998 | 9 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 214 | 1,292 | 6.04 | 13 |
2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 217 | 1,271 | 5.86 | 21 |
2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 216 | 1,212 | 5.61 | 16 |
2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 239 | 1,165 | 4.87 | 13 |
2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 188 | 1,012 | 5.38 | 13 |
2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 153 | 913 | 5.97 | 9 |
2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 123 | 911 | 7.41 | 9 |
2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 129 | 843 | 6.53 | 8 |
2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 182 | 817 | 4.49 | 8 |
He also comes in slightly below-average in yards per carry.
Three different teams held him under 3 yards per carry, including two with losing records (Rutgers, Indiana). If you watch Barkley against Washington in the Fiesta Bowl, you’ll see him scream down the sidelines for a 92-yard touchdown, but his other 17 carries went for 45 yards – under 3 per attempt.
TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS -- YARDS PER CARRY | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 200 | 1,740 | 8.70 | 18 |
2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 123 | 911 | 7.41 | 9 |
2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 129 | 843 | 6.53 | 8 |
2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 253 | 1,603 | 6.34 | 16 |
2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 289 | 1,821 | 6.30 | 23 |
1998 | 9 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 214 | 1,292 | 6.04 | 13 |
1998 | 5 | Curtis Enis, Chi. | 228 | 1,363 | 5.98 | 20 |
2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 153 | 913 | 5.97 | 9 |
2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 283 | 1,679 | 5.93 | 24 |
1999 | 5 | Ricky Williams, N.O. | 361 | 2,124 | 5.88 | 28 |
2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 217 | 1,271 | 5.86 | 21 |
1999 | 4 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 242 | 1,416 | 5.85 | 19 |
2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 369 | 2,158 | 5.85 | 22 |
2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 325 | 1,830 | 5.63 | 17 |
2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 326 | 1,834 | 5.63 | 20 |
2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 216 | 1,212 | 5.61 | 16 |
2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 334 | 1,798 | 5.38 | 17 |
2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 188 | 1,012 | 5.38 | 13 |
2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 239 | 1,165 | 4.87 | 13 |
2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 182 | 817 | 4.49 | 8 |
Premature, I think, to start talking about this guy being a better back than Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott.
What got Barkley up to No. 2 overall, I think, was the nice 40 times at the combine. He ran a 4.40 at 230 pounds, which is outstanding. And he was productive as a pass catcher at Penn State, with 54 receptions last year. But as I watch him catching those balls, he doesn’t jump out as being a great pass catcher. He’s fine (I saw a nice one-handed catch against Indiana) but I don’t think he’s necessarily better than a lot of other running backs who just weren’t used as much. Sony Michel, for example, caught only 9 passes last year at Georgia, but he might be just as good as Barkley as a receiver.
Barkley will be a top-10 back on my board. I don’t think he’ll be in my top 5.
—Ian Allan