It was a clunker of a draft for wide receivers. The first wasn’t chosen until D.J. Moore went to Carolina at No. 24. No big stars, apparently. Or are there?
The tendency with the receivers chosen in the later rounds is to assume they’re just not quite good enough. When a team selects a wide receiver in the third round, the tendency is to hope the guy is good enough to make the team and contribute – with luck, develop into a serviceable starter.
But some of those guys will also end up being really good. Emmanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen and Steve Smith, for example, were third-round picks. Some of these guys will hit.
Below see a list of the top 50 receivers of the last 10 years. On this one, I’m ranking them by their best season in the last 10 years, with a limit of one season per player (I don’t want to see Antonio Brown and Julio Jones showing up over and over). I instead wanted a list of 50 different receivers; then we can work backwards and see where they came from.
Only 19 of the 50 were first-round picks. So over 60 percent of these guys who had very good fantasy seasons were chosen in the second round or later. Four weren’t drafted at all (including one active player – Doug Baldwin).
Only seven of the 50 are what you might call uber-elite receivers – originally chosen with top-10 picks. Guys like Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Julio Jones.
On the list, I’ve got top-10 picks in bold and other first-rounders tagged with dots.
| TOP 50 WIDE RECEIVERS (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Points |
| 2011 | 1st | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 96 | 1,681 | 17.5 | 16 | 265.2 |
| 2014 | 6th | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 129 | 1,698 | 13.2 | 14 | 261.1 |
| 2015 | 1st | Julio Jones, Atl. | 136 | 1,871 | 13.8 | 9 | 241.1 |
| 2015 | 4th | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 109 | 1,502 | 13.8 | 14 | 234.2 |
| 2014 | 1st | • Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111 | 1,619 | 14.6 | 11 | 229.9 |
| 2014 | 2nd | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 98 | 1,519 | 15.5 | 13 | 229.9 |
| 2014 | 1st | • Dez Bryant, Dall. | 88 | 1,320 | 15.0 | 16 | 228.0 |
| 2013 | 2nd | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 87 | 1,646 | 18.9 | 9 | 227.4 |
| 2015 | 2nd | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 80 | 1,400 | 17.5 | 14 | 224.0 |
| 2015 | 1st | • Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 96 | 1,450 | 15.1 | 13 | 223.3 |
| 2015 | 1st | • DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 111 | 1,521 | 13.7 | 11 | 220.1 |
| 2008 | 1st | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 96 | 1,431 | 14.9 | 12 | 215.1 |
| 2011 | FA | Wes Welker, N.E. | 122 | 1,569 | 12.9 | 9 | 213.9 |
| 2009 | 1st | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101 | 1,569 | 15.5 | 9 | 212.9 |
| 2010 | 4th | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 77 | 1,448 | 18.8 | 11 | 209.0 |
| 2013 | 1st | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98 | 1,426 | 14.6 | 11 | 208.6 |
| 2016 | 1st | Mike Evans, T.B. | 96 | 1,321 | 13.8 | 12 | 208.1 |
| 2011 | FA | Victor Cruz, NYG | 82 | 1,536 | 18.7 | 9 | 207.9 |
| 2010 | 1st | • Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 72 | 1,162 | 16.1 | 15 | 206.6 |
| 2009 | 1st | • Randy Moss, N.E. | 83 | 1,264 | 15.2 | 13 | 206.4 |
| 2014 | 2nd | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 91 | 1,287 | 14.1 | 12 | 206.4 |
| 2010 | 1st | • Roddy White, Atl. | 115 | 1,389 | 12.1 | 10 | 203.2 |
| 2009 | 2nd | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 63 | 1,167 | 18.5 | 12 | 202.4 |
| 2014 | 3rd | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101 | 1,404 | 13.9 | 9 | 200.8 |
| 2010 | 2nd | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 76 | 1,265 | 16.6 | 12 | 198.4 |
| 2009 | FA | Miles Austin, Dall. | 81 | 1,320 | 16.3 | 11 | 197.8 |
| 2013 | 2nd | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 89 | 1,421 | 16.0 | 7 | 196.6 |
| 2013 | 3rd | Eric Decker, Den. | 87 | 1,288 | 14.8 | 11 | 194.8 |
| 2014 | 1st | • Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 85 | 1,318 | 15.5 | 10 | 191.8 |
| 2015 | FA | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 78 | 1,069 | 13.7 | 14 | 190.9 |
| 2010 | 3rd | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 60 | 1,257 | 21.0 | 10 | 189.6 |
| 2011 | 3rd | Steve Smith, Car. | 79 | 1,394 | 17.6 | 7 | 189.0 |
| 2012 | 2nd | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 72 | 1,384 | 19.2 | 8 | 188.4 |
| 2009 | 1st | • Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 100 | 1,264 | 12.6 | 10 | 186.4 |
| 2011 | 1st | • Percy Harvin, Minn. | 87 | 967 | 11.1 | 9 | 185.2 |
| 2016 | 3rd | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 91 | 1,448 | 15.9 | 6 | 182.8 |
| 2017 | 3rd | Keenan Allen, LAC | 102 | 1,393 | 13.7 | 7 | 182.2 |
| 2009 | 2nd | Sidney Rice, Minn. | 83 | 1,312 | 15.8 | 8 | 179.2 |
| 2008 | 2nd | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 89 | 1,038 | 11.7 | 11 | 176.5 |
| 2012 | 7th | Marques Colston, N.O. | 83 | 1,154 | 13.9 | 10 | 175.4 |
| 2016 | 2nd | Davante Adams, G.B. | 75 | 997 | 13.3 | 12 | 173.7 |
| 2017 | 5th | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 75 | 1,183 | 15.8 | 8 | 172.2 |
| 2010 | 1st | • Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 79 | 1,052 | 13.3 | 11 | 171.2 |
| 2015 | 1st | • Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 84 | 1,138 | 13.6 | 9 | 169.6 |
| 2008 | 2nd | Antonio Bryant, T.B. | 83 | 1,248 | 15.0 | 7 | 169.0 |
| 2008 | 3rd | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 69 | 1,052 | 15.2 | 10 | 168.5 |
| 2016 | 2nd | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 167.7 |
| 2010 | 7th | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 82 | 1,073 | 13.1 | 10 | 167.3 |
| 2013 | 6th | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 113 | 1,346 | 11.9 | 5 | 166.5 |
| 2012 | 1st | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 85 | 1,105 | 13.0 | 9 | 165.3 |
So let’s not write off these 2018 wide receivers just yet. There were six chosen in the second round, and I expect at least one of those guys will hit. Anthony Miller (pictured) isn’t fast enough or big enough, but he caught a zillion balls at Memphis; he might be another Stefon Diggs. Christian Kirk doesn’t have the right measurables either, but he might turn into another Sterling Shepard or Golden Tate. The Steelers picked James Washington late in the round, and they’ve had a really good track record with receivers over the years.
With Denver, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have big contracts and will be 31 at the end of the season. So I’m sure the expectation there is for Courtland Sutton to be a starter on opening day in 2019.
—Ian Allan