With Julio Jones, there’s the tendency to give talent the benefit of the doubt. He’s really big and fast and good, so there’s some chance he pop off about 10 touchdowns. But that never seems to happen.
Jones has scored 6, 9, 6 and 3 touchdowns the last four years. Lots of catches and yards, but not a lot of touchdowns.
Should be reasonably expect Jones to score 8-plus touchdowns? Or is this guy just not a scorer.
He hasn’t been good around the goal line we know that. In recent years, the Falcons have been a lot more effective in goal-to-go situations when passing to Mohamed Sanu and even Justin Hardy. (I would guess that a decent number of folks either haven’t heard of Justin Hardy or aren’t sure if he’s still on Atlanta’s roster.)
Yet look at the numbers inside the 10 over the last two years. Matt Ryan has gone 12 of 17 passing to Sanu, with 8 TDs and a 2-point conversion. He has gone 7 of 12 passing to Hardy, with 7 TDs.
He has gone 7 of 18 passing to Jones, with 3 TDs.
This isn’t a new thing. It’s a continuation.
Over the past four years, 38 wide receivers have been the intended target on at least 20 pass plays inside the 10-yard line. Only three of those receivers have scored on a lower percentage of plays than Jones. Since 2014, the Falcons have completed only 15 of 35 passes to Jones in that part of the field, with just 8 TDs.
Fitting, I guess that Atlanta’s season ended last year in Philadelphia when it couldn’t connect with Jones on a fourth-down pass in the diving seconds. He slipped on the route, then couldn’t pull down a high throw (pictured). The numbers suggest they would have had a much better chance of success had they gone to somebody else.
| RECEIVING INSIDE 10 (2014-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | TD | Pct |
| Cole Beasley, Dall. | 20 | 15 | 12 | 60.0% |
| Mike Wallace, Min.-Bal. | 21 | 13 | 11+1 | 57.1% |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 20 | 14 | 11 | 55.0% |
| Allen Robinson, Jac. | 30 | 17 | 14+2 | 53.3% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 40 | 26 | 18+2 | 50.0% |
| Odell Beckham, NYG | 32 | 17 | 16 | 50.0% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 29 | 15 | 13+1 | 48.3% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Cin.-Atl. | 23 | 14 | 9+2 | 47.8% |
| Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 41 | 28 | 17+2 | 46.3% |
| Michael Crabtree, Oak. | 35 | 18 | 13+3 | 45.7% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 35 | 16 | 13+3 | 45.7% |
| Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 41 | 25 | 18 | 43.9% |
| Golden Tate, Det. | 26 | 20 | 10+1 | 42.3% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 57 | 32 | 20+4 | 42.1% |
| Alshon Jeffery, Chi.-Phil. | 39 | 17 | 13+3 | 41.0% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 26 | 15 | 9+1 | 38.5% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 26 | 12 | 10 | 38.5% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 32 | 18 | 10+2 | 37.5% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 34 | 22 | 11+1 | 35.3% |
| Allen Hurns, Jac. | 20 | 11 | 7 | 35.0% |
| Brandon LaFell, N.E.-Cin. | 23 | 11 | 8 | 34.8% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 35 | 19 | 11+1 | 34.3% |
| Eric Decker, NYJ | 33 | 18 | 11 | 33.3% |
| Andre Johnson, Ind.-Ten. | 21 | 10 | 7 | 33.3% |
| Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 28 | 12 | 9 | 32.1% |
| Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 22 | 7 | 7 | 31.8% |
| Dez Bryant, Dall. | 36 | 12 | 11 | 30.6% |
| Julian Edelman, N.E. | 27 | 12 | 7+1 | 29.6% |
| Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 49 | 20 | 12+2 | 28.6% |
| Marvin Jones, Cin.-Det. | 21 | 9 | 6 | 28.6% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 25 | 12 | 6+1 | 28.0% |
| Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 24 | 8 | 6 | 25.0% |
| Terrance Williams, Dall. | 20 | 6 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 23.8% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 35 | 15 | 8 | 22.9% |
| Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 22 | 9 | 3+2 | 22.7% |
| Anquan Boldin, S.F.-Det. | 23 | 9 | 5 | 21.7% |
| Jermaine Kearse, Sea.-NYJ | 24 | 3 | 3 | 12.5% |
These numbers include not only touchdowns but also 2-point conversions (which officially aren’t considered plays). But they seem meaningful and telling to me, so I’ve left them in there. I’ve got the 2-point conversions filed in there with the touchdowns. (Larry Fitzgerald, for example, has caught 11 touchdowns and one 2-point conversion, so he reads 11+1.)
I consider this to be good data. With at least 20 pass plays for each guy, the luck/chance factor gets dialed down.
I just wish that Cole Beasley and Mike Wallace didn’t show as the first two on the list. If I were in a TD-only league, I definitely wouldn’t select Beasley or Wallace before Julio.
—Ian Allan