Factoid

May 22, 2018

The declining takeaway

About a 30 percent decline over the past 15 years

Pushing some numbers around while considering the magazine story on fantasy defenses, one trend stands out. Takeaways are down since the turn of the century, and in fact it's been a steady, somewhat precipitous decline.

Back in 2001, NFL teams averaged 30 takeaways per season. Five years later that number was 28, and five years after that, it was 25. The last two years, teams averaged just 22 takeaways. (Table shows numbers since 2007; any wider and it makes for an ugly web page.)

NFL TEAM TAKEAWAYS, 2007-2017
Team	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
Arizona	29	30	29	30	19	33	30	25	33	28	21
Atlanta	27	18	28	31	29	31	21	28	23	22	16
Baltimore	23	34	32	27	26	25	24	22	14	28	34
Buffalo	30	22	33	22	31	21	30	30	25	18	25
Carolina	30	25	37	29	24	23	30	26	39	27	21
Chicago	33	32	28	35	31	44	28	24	17	11	22
Cincinnati	34	24	25	26	22	30	31	26	28	20	14
Cleveland	27	31	19	28	20	29	21	29	21	13	13
Dallas	29	22	21	30	24	16	28	31	11	20	21
Denver	29	13	30	18	18	24	26	25	27	27	17
Detroit	35	20	23	29	34	17	22	27	18	14	32
Green Bay	28	28	40	32	38	23	22	27	22	25	22
Houston	25	22	27	18	27	29	11	34	25	17	16
Indianapolis	37	26	26	21	17	15	27	26	25	17	20
Jacksonville	29	17	25	18	28	23	21	20	18	13	33
Kansas City	22	29	28	23	26	13	36	14	29	33	26
LA Chargers	48	24	25	22	21	28	17	18	20	28	27
LA Rams	27	26	20	26	18	21	29	25	26	18	28
Miami	22	30	21	19	19	16	24	25	16	25	15
Minnesota	31	25	24	25	23	22	20	19	22	27	19
New England	31	22	28	38	34	41	29	25	21	23	18
New Orleans	23	22	39	25	16	26	19	17	22	21	25
NY Giants	25	22	24	39	31	35	29	26	27	25	19
NY Jets	21	30	31	30	31	23	15	13	30	12	20
Oakland	26	24	20	24	26	19	22	14	25	30	14
Philadelphia	19	29	38	34	24	13	31	28	26	26	31
Pittsburgh	25	29	22	35	15	20	20	21	30	23	22
San Francisco	21	18	33	22	38	25	30	29	12	20	20
Seattle	34	20	23	22	31	31	39	24	22	19	25
Tampa Bay	35	30	29	28	24	26	31	25	23	29	26
Tennessee	34	31	27	25	23	24	25	16	19	18	21
Washington	24	18	17	27	21	31	26	19	26	20	23
Average	28.5	24.8	27.3	26.8	25.3	24.9	25.4	23.7	23.2	21.8	22.1

We can run through plenty of theories for the decline. Offenses are placing higher value on taking care of the football than in the past. New rules, with player safety in mind, are reducing the number of big, concussion-causing (and turnover-producing) hits. Probably both are true.

But the results are tough to dispute. Turnovers are down across the league, and should be less of a factor when considering fantasy defenses than in the past. And defenses themselves are less likely to put up difference-making fantasy production than they were just 15 years ago.

--Andy Richardson

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