Jared Goff might have been the NFL's most improved player in 2017, going from looking like a trainwreck in 2016 to a legitimate franchise quarterback in Sean McVay's offense. Full credit to him for turning things around in his sophomore season. But probably not a player I'll target in 2018.
Virtually all of Goff's big games last year were against soft pass defenses. He threw 3-4 TD on four occasions, against the 49ers, Texans, Giants and Titans -- all ranked outside the top 20 in pass defense. He threw for over 290 yards six times, against those four teams and also the Saints and Colts. Only the Saints can be said to have had even an average pass defense in 2017 (statistically, they were 19th). That's where Goff's really good games occurred.
He played six games against defenses that finished last year ranked in the top 12 in pass defense. For one reason or another -- sometimes struggling, sometimes because the Rams dominated in other ways -- he didn't put up good numbers in most of those games.
| GOFF VERSUS TOP-12 PASS DEFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. | Res. | Yds | TD | Int |
| Wash. | L, 27-20 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea. | L, 16-10 | 288 | 0 | 2 |
| at Jax. | W, 27-17 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
| at Minn. | L, 24-7 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
| at Sea. | W, 42-7 | 120 | 2 | 1 |
| Atl. | L, 26-13 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
This is not meant to trash Goff. There were other factors in those games (like blowing out Seattle on the ground and getting defensive scores against the Jaguars).
But I think it's fair to say Goff isn't a safe bet to be a weekly fantasy starter. He could regress in 2018, or at least have another similar type of year, where he's usable in favorable matchups, but not in tougher ones.
--Andy Richardson