We were talking earlier in the day about Alex Smith’s ability (or inability) to connect on downfield throws, and let me weigh in on that. I’ve got the numbers in front of me now.
Smith did a good job hitting Tyreek Hill and sometimes Travis Kelce on some downfield shots last year. If you want to look strictly at numbers, he averaged 11.9 yards per completion. That was 10th-best in the league among those with at least 200 pass attempts.
I remember hearing prior to the start of last year that the coaches in Kansas City were encouraging Smith to be more of a risk taker -- to try on those long throws.
| YARDS PER COMPLETION (2017) | |
|---|---|
| Player | Avg |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 13.48 |
| Jared Goff, LAR | 12.85 |
| Philip Rivers, LAC | 12.54 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 12.44 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 12.43 |
| Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 12.06 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 11.98 |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 11.97 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 11.89 |
| Alex Smith, K.C. | 11.85 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 11.81 |
| Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 11.80 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 11.75 |
| Blake Bortles, Jac. | 11.70 |
| C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 11.63 |
| Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 11.50 |
| DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 11.35 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 11.35 |
| Tom Savage, Hou. | 11.30 |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 11.23 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 11.22 |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 11.19 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 11.18 |
| Trevor Siemian, Den. | 11.09 |
| Josh McCown, NYJ | 10.96 |
| Case Keenum, Minn. | 10.91 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 10.88 |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 10.82 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 10.79 |
| Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 10.64 |
| Brian Hoyer, S.F.-N.E. | 10.46 |
| Jay Cutler, Mia. | 10.02 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 9.85 |
| Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9.56 |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 8.92 |
But that hasn’t typically been his playing style. If you look at the previous four years, considering all quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts, only three have averaged fewer yards per completion.
| YARDS PER COMPLETION (2013-16) | |
|---|---|
| Player | Avg |
| Jameis Winston | 12.38 |
| Cam Newton | 12.37 |
| Russell Wilson | 12.32 |
| Carson Palmer | 12.24 |
| Nick Foles | 12.22 |
| Brian Hoyer | 12.16 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 11.95 |
| Andrew Luck | 11.94 |
| Peyton Manning | 11.94 |
| Josh McCown | 11.89 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11.87 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 11.83 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 11.82 |
| Kirk Cousins | 11.74 |
| Andy Dalton | 11.73 |
| Philip Rivers | 11.63 |
| Tom Brady | 11.60 |
| Tony Romo | 11.54 |
| Matthew Stafford | 11.51 |
| Matt Ryan | 11.47 |
| Eli Manning | 11.43 |
| Jay Cutler | 11.31 |
| Drew Brees | 11.21 |
| Blake Bortles | 11.21 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 11.06 |
| Alex Smith | 10.89 |
| Joe Flacco | 10.66 |
| Derek Carr | 10.61 |
| Sam Bradford | 10.32 |
These are just stats, of course. You can read into them as you wish. When you see a guy with a low number, it doesn’t mean that he can’t connect on low throws. Maybe he’s just choosing not to make those throws. Or maybe they’ve got an offense where they want a lot of check-down balls to running backs in the flat.
But it’s one measure, and the guys I see near the bottom of the long-term chart are the ones I have little confidence in to connect on many of the long passes.
—Ian Allan