A fast start can be nice in a fantasy league. If you can start 4-1, you’re working from a position of strength; you can afford to make trades and waiver moves that might help you in the playoffs. But if you start 1-4, there’s not much margin for error – you have win to keep alive the hopes of being around in the postseason.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at strength of schedule not for the season but just for the early portion – to get an idea of what teams make be affected by schedules in their early games.
Looking at the just the first five games for each team, I see that the Saints, Jets and Raiders project to play the easiest early schedules. New Orleans (at least on paper) is way ahead of everyone else, playing its first five against teams that went a combined 25-55 last year (Bucs, Browns, Falcons, Giants and Washington). Things will change, of course. Four of those opponents, I think most will agree, will be better this year. But it’s a starting point.
The Falcons, Bucs and 49ers project to play the hardest schedules early. Atlanta has the flip schedule of New Orleans, with its first five against teams that went 55-25 last year (Philadelphia, Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh).
For most teams, these numbers show opponents in Weeks 1-5. But some teams have byes in there. For them, I included the Week 6 opponent (so everyone would have five games).
| SOS, WIN-LOSS (first 5 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| New Orleans | 25 | 55 | .313 |
| NY Jets | 30 | 50 | .375 |
| Oakland | 31 | 49 | .388 |
| New England | 33 | 47 | .413 |
| Baltimore | 34 | 46 | .425 |
| Pittsburgh | 34 | 46 | .425 |
| Chicago | 35 | 45 | .438 |
| Dallas | 36 | 44 | .450 |
| Carolina | 36 | 44 | .450 |
| Houston | 38 | 42 | .475 |
| Arizona | 38 | 42 | .475 |
| Seattle | 38 | 42 | .475 |
| Denver | 39 | 41 | .488 |
| Detroit | 40 | 40 | .500 |
| Jacksonville | 40 | 40 | .500 |
| Miami | 40 | 40 | .500 |
| Cincinnati | 40 | 40 | .500 |
| Washington | 41 | 39 | .513 |
| Philadelphia | 41 | 39 | .513 |
| LA Chargers | 42 | 38 | .525 |
| Tennessee | 42 | 38 | .525 |
| Green Bay | 43 | 37 | .538 |
| Kansas City | 43 | 37 | .538 |
| Indianapolis | 44 | 36 | .550 |
| Cleveland | 44 | 36 | .550 |
| NY Giants | 45 | 35 | .563 |
| LA Rams | 45 | 35 | .563 |
| Minnesota | 46 | 34 | .575 |
| Buffalo | 47 | 33 | .588 |
| San Francisco | 49 | 31 | .613 |
| Tampa Bay | 52 | 28 | .650 |
| Atlanta | 55 | 25 | .688 |
Some prefer to look not at wins and losses but at points allowed. Fantasy, after all, is more about scoring rather than wins and losses. I also ran those numbers, but they’re pretty similar.
The Saints and Patriots have the easiest early-season schedules for points (and they’re both also in the top 4 for wins). Both of those teams, oddly, have a key player suspended for the first four games – Mark Ingram and Julian Edelman. Two other teams in the first five weeks will face defenses that last year allowed an average of over 23 points per game.
At the bottom 5, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are still there. Three teams will play their first five against teams that last year allowed an average of under 20 points per game (Rams, Bills, Bucs).
| SOS, POINTS (first 5 games) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| New Orleans | 23.54 |
| New England | 23.46 |
| Dallas | 23.24 |
| Chicago | 23.15 |
| NY Jets | 22.86 |
| Baltimore | 22.60 |
| Washington | 22.53 |
| Oakland | 22.33 |
| LA Chargers | 22.29 |
| Detroit | 22.21 |
| Houston | 22.20 |
| Carolina | 22.15 |
| Indianapolis | 22.05 |
| Jacksonville | 22.01 |
| Miami | 21.95 |
| Arizona | 21.90 |
| Tennessee | 21.89 |
| Minnesota | 21.88 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.86 |
| Cincinnati | 21.78 |
| Denver | 21.61 |
| Seattle | 21.55 |
| Philadelphia | 21.36 |
| Green Bay | 21.19 |
| Cleveland | 21.15 |
| NY Giants | 21.11 |
| Kansas City | 20.16 |
| Atlanta | 20.06 |
| San Francisco | 20.00 |
| LA Rams | 19.88 |
| Buffalo | 19.59 |
| Tampa Bay | 19.55 |
—Ian Allan