As Andy pointed out in his roundup, Aaron Jones will miss the season’s first two games. He’s been suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse rules. That’s not necessarily a huge deal. Other players have served suspensions at the start of seasons and bounced back to have big years – most notably LeVeon Bell and Josh Gordon.
But Jones is down for the first two, and that will give Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams the opportunity to grab a hold of the featured job. If either of those guys runs for 100-plus yards in both of the first two games, Jones definitely won’t be coming back as a starter in Week 3.
As mentioned earlier in the week, Jones was a more effective runner than those guys last year – more explosive. Jones averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and he had 6 runs over 20 yards despite carrying the ball only 81 times – the best ratio in the entire league.
But while that’s an impressive achievement, that stat hasn’t tended to be predictive. That is, if you look at previous running backs who have done similar things, they haven’t tended to emerge as productive, Pro Bowl players.
Below is a chart showing running backs who had 20-yard runs on over 5 percent of their carries. But I’m looking for guys like Aaron Jones, so I’m showing only players with between 50 and 100 carries.
I don’t see a lot of breakout guys on the list. Unofficially, I don’t think any of them ran for over 800 yards the next season. (Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw had 1,000-yard seasons, but later in their careers.)
It would be a surprise, I think, if Jones ran for 1,000 yards. I continue to think he’s pretty similar to the two other decent backs they have there.
| RUNNING BACKS BREAKING LOTS OF 20-YARD RUNS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | Lg | 20+ | Pct |
| 2016 | DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 87 | 467 | 5.4 | 30 | 7 | 8.0% |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 87 | 603 | 6.9 | 36 | 7 | 8.0% |
| 2017 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 81 | 448 | 5.5 | 46t | 6 | 7.4% |
| 2012 | Brandon Bolden, N.E. | 56 | 274 | 4.9 | 27 | 4 | 7.1% |
| 2012 | David Wilson, NYG | 71 | 358 | 5 | 52t | 5 | 7.0% |
| 2013 | James Starks, G.B. | 89 | 493 | 5.5 | 41 | 6 | 6.7% |
| 2014 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 60 | 281 | 4.7 | 34 | 4 | 6.7% |
| 2008 | Correll Buckhalter, Phil. | 76 | 369 | 4.9 | 33 | 5 | 6.6% |
| 2016 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 77 | 457 | 5.9 | 61 | 5 | 6.5% |
| 2017 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 93 | 358 | 3.8 | 35 | 6 | 6.5% |
| 2007 | Chris Henry, Tenn. | 31 | 119 | 3.8 | 24t | 2 | 6.5% |
| 2013 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | 78 | 358 | 4.6 | 45 | 5 | 6.4% |
| 2016 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 83 | 491 | 5.9 | 75t | 5 | 6.0% |
| 2010 | Darren Sproles, S.D. | 50 | 267 | 5.3 | 34 | 3 | 6.0% |
| 2010 | Derrick Ward, Hou. | 50 | 315 | 6.3 | 38t | 3 | 6.0% |
| 2008 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 67 | 355 | 5.3 | 77 | 4 | 6.0% |
| 2014 | Joseph Randle, Dall. | 51 | 343 | 6.7 | 65t | 3 | 5.9% |
| 2011 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 87 | 441 | 5.1 | 33t | 5 | 5.7% |
| 2011 | Leon Washington, Sea. | 53 | 248 | 4.7 | 48t | 3 | 5.7% |
| 2016 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 71 | 360 | 5.1 | 31 | 4 | 5.6% |
| 2015 | Spencer Ware, K.C. | 72 | 403 | 5.6 | 52 | 4 | 5.6% |
| 2013 | Khiry Robinson, N.O. | 54 | 224 | 4.1 | 25 | 3 | 5.6% |
| 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Minn. | 74 | 354 | 4.8 | 33 | 4 | 5.4% |
| 2015 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 93 | 517 | 5.6 | 41t | 5 | 5.4% |
| 2007 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 58 | 300 | 5.2 | 27 | 3 | 5.2% |
—Ian Allan