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Factoid

Antonio Brown is 30

Is a dip coming from Steelers' star?

Antonio Brown just turned 30. Is that an indication that a dip is coming? Or will he simply keep rocking as the league’s best wide receiver?

ESPN addressed the issue in a feature story. They’ve got a couple of nice charts, including listing the seven players who’ve caught at least 500 passes in their 30s. And they point out the eight players who’ve led the league in receiving yards in their 30s in the Super Bowl era. That includes Jerry Rice three times and J.T. Smith, who helped along by crossing the picket line during the strike in 1987. Four other players have done it.

"I don't pay attention to my age," Brown told ESPN. "I'm feeling great, I'm healthy and I'm in great shape. I feel as long as I have that, I can continue to be productive."

Rice was 32 when he led the league in receiving yards in 1995. All of the other leaders in the last 50 years have been no older than 31. I take that as a sign that while Brown is still great, we shouldn’t expect him to be quite as good as what we’ve seen in recent years (when he’s been insanely awesome).

With this issue, I don’t think the question is whether Brown can catch another 500-plus passes. I’m more interested in whether he can continue to be a top-3 receiver (or maybe even the top guy). Typically with wide receivers, they tend to be a little more productive and explosive in their late 20s.

So rather than the various charts posted by ESPN, consider the following list. It shows the top 100 wide receivers since 2000, along with their age on opening day. Of the 100 players on the list, 18 are in the ‘30s. That’s kind of decent – almost 1 in 5. But I see a lot more of the younger guys.

Just three players older than 32. Terrell Owens (24th on the list) was 33 in 2007. Marvin Harrison checks in at 45 as a 34-year-old. And Joey Galloway (94th) was 33 years old in 2005.

Brown shows up twice in the top 5, but he was only 26 and 27 in those seasons. For this season, if you take Brown in the first round, I think it should be more with the hope he similar to last year (44th on this list). That’s not bad – it’s a great season – but not up their in the out-of-this-world range we’ve seen in the past.

TOP 100 WIDE RECEIVERS SINCE 2000
YearPlayerAgeNoRecRunTDPoints
2007Randy Moss, N.E.30981,493023287.3
2003Randy Moss, Minn.261111,6321817267.0
2011Calvin Johnson, Det.25961,6811116265.2
2014Antonio Brown, Pitt.261291,6981314261.1
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.271361,8342811256.2
2001Marvin Harrison, Ind.291091,524315242.7
2003Torry Holt, St.L.271171,696512242.1
2002Marvin Harrison, Ind.301431,7221011241.2
2015Julio Jones, Atl.261361,87109241.1
2001Terrell Owens, S.F.27931,4122116239.3
2004Muhsin Muhammad, Car.31931,4051516238.0
2005Steve Smith Sr., Car.261031,5632513236.8
2000Randy Moss, Minn.23771,437515236.2
2015Brandon Marshall, NYJ311091,502014234.2
2014Jordy Nelson, G.B.29981,519013229.9
2014Demaryius Thomas, Den.261111,619011229.9
2014Dez Bryant, Dall.25881,320016228.0
2013Josh Gordon, Clev.22871,646889227.4
2013Demaryius Thomas, Den.25921,430014227.0
2012Calvin Johnson, Det.261221,96405226.4
2000Terrell Owens, S.F.26971,4511113226.2
2007Terrell Owens, Dall.33811,355515226.0
2000Marvin Harrison, Ind.281021,413014225.3
2002Hines Ward, Pitt.261121,32914212225.1
2007Braylon Edwards, Clev.24801,289016224.9
2000Rod Smith, Den.301001,602999224.1
2015Allen Robinson, Jac.26801,400014224.0
2015Odell Beckham Jr., NYG22961,450313223.3
2002Terrell Owens, S.F.281001,3007914221.9
2013Calvin Johnson, Det.27841,492012221.2
2015DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.231111,521011220.1
2012Brandon Marshall, Chi.281181,508-211216.6
2011Jordy Nelson, G.B.26681,263015216.3
2017DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.25961,378013215.8
2008Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.25961,431012215.1
2011Wes Welker, N.E.301221,569309213.9
2009Andre Johnson, Hou.281011,56909212.9
2012Dez Bryant, Dall.23921,382-512211.7
2007Reggie Wayne, Ind.281041,510410211.4
2001David Boston, Ariz.23981,598358211.3
2004Javon Walker, G.B.25891,382012210.2
2016Jordy Nelson, G.B.31971,257014209.7
2017Antonio Brown, Pitt.291011,53309209.3
2010Brandon Lloyd, Den.29771,448-1811209.0
2006Marvin Harrison, Ind.34951,366012208.6
2013A.J. Green, Cin.25981,426011208.6
2016Mike Evans, T.B.23961,321012208.1
2004Joe Horn, N.O.32941,399011207.9
2011Victor Cruz, NYG24821,53639207.9
2008Calvin Johnson, Det.22781,331-112207.0
2010Dwayne Bowe, K.C.25721,162415206.6
2009Randy Moss, N.E.32831,264013206.4
2014Randall Cobb, G.B.24911,2873712206.4
2014Odell Beckham Jr., NYG21911,3053512206.0
2013Brandon Marshall, Chi.281001,295012205.5
2008Andre Johnson, Hou.271151,57508205.5
2001Rod Smith, Den.311131,3432711205.0
2005Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.221031,4094110205.0
2012A.J. Green, Cin.24971,3503811204.8
2013Antonio Brown, Pitt.251101,49949204.3
2000Derrick Alexander, K.C.28781,3914510203.6
2004Terrell Owens, Phil.30771,200-514203.5
2012Demaryius Thomas, Den.24941,434010203.4
2010Roddy White, Atl.281151,389310203.2
2005Anquan Boldin, Ariz.24841,48339202.6
2009DeSean Jackson, Phil.22631,16713712202.4
2000Isaac Bruce, St.L.27871,471119202.2
2013Dez Bryant, Dall.24931,233113201.4
2004Marvin Harrison, Ind.32861,113015201.3
2016Antonio Brown, Pitt.281061,284912201.3
2007Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.241001,409010200.9
2014Emmanuel Sanders, Den.271011,404449200.8
2005Santana Moss, Wash.26971,432339200.5
2000Torry Holt, St.L.24821,63576200.2
2010Greg Jennings, G.B.26761,265-112198.4
2006Terrell Owens, Dall.32851,180013198.0
2009Miles Austin, Dall.25811,320-211197.8
2016Odell Beckham Jr., NYG231011,367910197.6
2004Torry Holt, St.L.28941,372010197.2
2007Chad Johnson, Cin.29931,440478196.7
2013Alshon Jeffery, Chi.23891,4211057196.6
2004Drew Bennett, Tenn.26801,2471211195.9
2003Chad Johnson, Cin.25901,355010195.5
2014Julio Jones, Atl.251041,59316195.4
2013Eric Decker, Den.26871,288011194.8
2004Reggie Wayne, Ind.25771,210-412192.6
2014Jeremy Maclin, Phil.26851,318010191.8
2015Doug Baldwin, Sea.26781,069014190.9
2015A.J. Green, Cin.27861,297010189.7
2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz.221011,377408189.7
2010Mike Wallace, Pitt.24601,2573910189.6
2002Eric Moulds, Buff.291001,287710189.4
2010Calvin Johnson, Det.24771,1203212189.2
2005Joey Galloway, T.B.33831,287410189.1
2011Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.28801,41108189.1
2011Steve Smith Sr., Car.32791,394567189.0
2005Chad Johnson, Cin.271021,402457188.7
2012Vincent Jackson, T.B.29721,38408188.4
2000Ed McCaffrey, Den.321011,31709187.7
2007T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin.291121,1431412187.7

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index