Antonio Brown just turned 30. Is that an indication that a dip is coming? Or will he simply keep rocking as the league’s best wide receiver?
ESPN addressed the issue in a feature story. They’ve got a couple of nice charts, including listing the seven players who’ve caught at least 500 passes in their 30s. And they point out the eight players who’ve led the league in receiving yards in their 30s in the Super Bowl era. That includes Jerry Rice three times and J.T. Smith, who helped along by crossing the picket line during the strike in 1987. Four other players have done it.
"I don't pay attention to my age," Brown told ESPN. "I'm feeling great, I'm healthy and I'm in great shape. I feel as long as I have that, I can continue to be productive."
Rice was 32 when he led the league in receiving yards in 1995. All of the other leaders in the last 50 years have been no older than 31. I take that as a sign that while Brown is still great, we shouldn’t expect him to be quite as good as what we’ve seen in recent years (when he’s been insanely awesome).
With this issue, I don’t think the question is whether Brown can catch another 500-plus passes. I’m more interested in whether he can continue to be a top-3 receiver (or maybe even the top guy). Typically with wide receivers, they tend to be a little more productive and explosive in their late 20s.
So rather than the various charts posted by ESPN, consider the following list. It shows the top 100 wide receivers since 2000, along with their age on opening day. Of the 100 players on the list, 18 are in the ‘30s. That’s kind of decent – almost 1 in 5. But I see a lot more of the younger guys.
Just three players older than 32. Terrell Owens (24th on the list) was 33 in 2007. Marvin Harrison checks in at 45 as a 34-year-old. And Joey Galloway (94th) was 33 years old in 2005.
Brown shows up twice in the top 5, but he was only 26 and 27 in those seasons. For this season, if you take Brown in the first round, I think it should be more with the hope he similar to last year (44th on this list). That’s not bad – it’s a great season – but not up their in the out-of-this-world range we’ve seen in the past.
TOP 100 WIDE RECEIVERS SINCE 2000 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | No | Rec | Run | TD | Points |
2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 30 | 98 | 1,493 | 0 | 23 | 287.3 |
2003 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 26 | 111 | 1,632 | 18 | 17 | 267.0 |
2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 25 | 96 | 1,681 | 11 | 16 | 265.2 |
2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 26 | 129 | 1,698 | 13 | 14 | 261.1 |
2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 27 | 136 | 1,834 | 28 | 11 | 256.2 |
2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 29 | 109 | 1,524 | 3 | 15 | 242.7 |
2003 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 27 | 117 | 1,696 | 5 | 12 | 242.1 |
2002 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 30 | 143 | 1,722 | 10 | 11 | 241.2 |
2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 26 | 136 | 1,871 | 0 | 9 | 241.1 |
2001 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 27 | 93 | 1,412 | 21 | 16 | 239.3 |
2004 | Muhsin Muhammad, Car. | 31 | 93 | 1,405 | 15 | 16 | 238.0 |
2005 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 26 | 103 | 1,563 | 25 | 13 | 236.8 |
2000 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 23 | 77 | 1,437 | 5 | 15 | 236.2 |
2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 31 | 109 | 1,502 | 0 | 14 | 234.2 |
2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 29 | 98 | 1,519 | 0 | 13 | 229.9 |
2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 26 | 111 | 1,619 | 0 | 11 | 229.9 |
2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 25 | 88 | 1,320 | 0 | 16 | 228.0 |
2013 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 22 | 87 | 1,646 | 88 | 9 | 227.4 |
2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 25 | 92 | 1,430 | 0 | 14 | 227.0 |
2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 26 | 122 | 1,964 | 0 | 5 | 226.4 |
2000 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 26 | 97 | 1,451 | 11 | 13 | 226.2 |
2007 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 33 | 81 | 1,355 | 5 | 15 | 226.0 |
2000 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 28 | 102 | 1,413 | 0 | 14 | 225.3 |
2002 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 26 | 112 | 1,329 | 142 | 12 | 225.1 |
2007 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 24 | 80 | 1,289 | 0 | 16 | 224.9 |
2000 | Rod Smith, Den. | 30 | 100 | 1,602 | 99 | 9 | 224.1 |
2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 26 | 80 | 1,400 | 0 | 14 | 224.0 |
2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 22 | 96 | 1,450 | 3 | 13 | 223.3 |
2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 28 | 100 | 1,300 | 79 | 14 | 221.9 |
2013 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 27 | 84 | 1,492 | 0 | 12 | 221.2 |
2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 23 | 111 | 1,521 | 0 | 11 | 220.1 |
2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 28 | 118 | 1,508 | -2 | 11 | 216.6 |
2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 26 | 68 | 1,263 | 0 | 15 | 216.3 |
2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 25 | 96 | 1,378 | 0 | 13 | 215.8 |
2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 25 | 96 | 1,431 | 0 | 12 | 215.1 |
2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 30 | 122 | 1,569 | 30 | 9 | 213.9 |
2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 28 | 101 | 1,569 | 0 | 9 | 212.9 |
2012 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 23 | 92 | 1,382 | -5 | 12 | 211.7 |
2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 28 | 104 | 1,510 | 4 | 10 | 211.4 |
2001 | David Boston, Ariz. | 23 | 98 | 1,598 | 35 | 8 | 211.3 |
2004 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 25 | 89 | 1,382 | 0 | 12 | 210.2 |
2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 31 | 97 | 1,257 | 0 | 14 | 209.7 |
2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 29 | 101 | 1,533 | 0 | 9 | 209.3 |
2010 | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 29 | 77 | 1,448 | -18 | 11 | 209.0 |
2006 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 34 | 95 | 1,366 | 0 | 12 | 208.6 |
2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 25 | 98 | 1,426 | 0 | 11 | 208.6 |
2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 23 | 96 | 1,321 | 0 | 12 | 208.1 |
2004 | Joe Horn, N.O. | 32 | 94 | 1,399 | 0 | 11 | 207.9 |
2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 24 | 82 | 1,536 | 3 | 9 | 207.9 |
2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 22 | 78 | 1,331 | -1 | 12 | 207.0 |
2010 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 25 | 72 | 1,162 | 4 | 15 | 206.6 |
2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 32 | 83 | 1,264 | 0 | 13 | 206.4 |
2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 24 | 91 | 1,287 | 37 | 12 | 206.4 |
2014 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 21 | 91 | 1,305 | 35 | 12 | 206.0 |
2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 28 | 100 | 1,295 | 0 | 12 | 205.5 |
2008 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 27 | 115 | 1,575 | 0 | 8 | 205.5 |
2001 | Rod Smith, Den. | 31 | 113 | 1,343 | 27 | 11 | 205.0 |
2005 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 22 | 103 | 1,409 | 41 | 10 | 205.0 |
2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 24 | 97 | 1,350 | 38 | 11 | 204.8 |
2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 25 | 110 | 1,499 | 4 | 9 | 204.3 |
2000 | Derrick Alexander, K.C. | 28 | 78 | 1,391 | 45 | 10 | 203.6 |
2004 | Terrell Owens, Phil. | 30 | 77 | 1,200 | -5 | 14 | 203.5 |
2012 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 24 | 94 | 1,434 | 0 | 10 | 203.4 |
2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 28 | 115 | 1,389 | 3 | 10 | 203.2 |
2005 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 24 | 84 | 1,483 | 3 | 9 | 202.6 |
2009 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 22 | 63 | 1,167 | 137 | 12 | 202.4 |
2000 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 27 | 87 | 1,471 | 11 | 9 | 202.2 |
2013 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 24 | 93 | 1,233 | 1 | 13 | 201.4 |
2004 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 32 | 86 | 1,113 | 0 | 15 | 201.3 |
2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 28 | 106 | 1,284 | 9 | 12 | 201.3 |
2007 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 24 | 100 | 1,409 | 0 | 10 | 200.9 |
2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 27 | 101 | 1,404 | 44 | 9 | 200.8 |
2005 | Santana Moss, Wash. | 26 | 97 | 1,432 | 33 | 9 | 200.5 |
2000 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 24 | 82 | 1,635 | 7 | 6 | 200.2 |
2010 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 26 | 76 | 1,265 | -1 | 12 | 198.4 |
2006 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 32 | 85 | 1,180 | 0 | 13 | 198.0 |
2009 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 25 | 81 | 1,320 | -2 | 11 | 197.8 |
2016 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 23 | 101 | 1,367 | 9 | 10 | 197.6 |
2004 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 28 | 94 | 1,372 | 0 | 10 | 197.2 |
2007 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 29 | 93 | 1,440 | 47 | 8 | 196.7 |
2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 23 | 89 | 1,421 | 105 | 7 | 196.6 |
2004 | Drew Bennett, Tenn. | 26 | 80 | 1,247 | 12 | 11 | 195.9 |
2003 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 25 | 90 | 1,355 | 0 | 10 | 195.5 |
2014 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 25 | 104 | 1,593 | 1 | 6 | 195.4 |
2013 | Eric Decker, Den. | 26 | 87 | 1,288 | 0 | 11 | 194.8 |
2004 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 25 | 77 | 1,210 | -4 | 12 | 192.6 |
2014 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 26 | 85 | 1,318 | 0 | 10 | 191.8 |
2015 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 26 | 78 | 1,069 | 0 | 14 | 190.9 |
2015 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 27 | 86 | 1,297 | 0 | 10 | 189.7 |
2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 22 | 101 | 1,377 | 40 | 8 | 189.7 |
2010 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 24 | 60 | 1,257 | 39 | 10 | 189.6 |
2002 | Eric Moulds, Buff. | 29 | 100 | 1,287 | 7 | 10 | 189.4 |
2010 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 24 | 77 | 1,120 | 32 | 12 | 189.2 |
2005 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 33 | 83 | 1,287 | 4 | 10 | 189.1 |
2011 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 28 | 80 | 1,411 | 0 | 8 | 189.1 |
2011 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 32 | 79 | 1,394 | 56 | 7 | 189.0 |
2005 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 27 | 102 | 1,402 | 45 | 7 | 188.7 |
2012 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 29 | 72 | 1,384 | 0 | 8 | 188.4 |
2000 | Ed McCaffrey, Den. | 32 | 101 | 1,317 | 0 | 9 | 187.7 |
2007 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 29 | 112 | 1,143 | 14 | 12 | 187.7 |
—Ian Allan