I ran an item on Mitchell Trubisky the other day, showing the increase/decrease in passing yards from Year 1 to Year 2 for quarterbacks selected in the top 10. It was a response to a Kyle Long interview that Trubisky is looking more comfortable in his second year. Call this the John Evans revision.
In the comments, Evans correctly pointed out that yards per start would be more telling. Those numbers are below.
The overall results are similar: of the 23 previous quarterbacks selected in the top 10 this century, 11 of them averaged more yards per game in their second season. Leading the way is Jared Goff, who went from 156 yards per game as a rookie, under Jeff Fisher, to 254 yards per game in year 2, under Sean McVay. Eli Manning and Blake Bortles also showed large increases in yards per game. Although so did some players who ultimately flopped, like Mark Sanchez.
| TOP-10 QBS, YARDS PER GAME (YEAR 1 TO YEAR 2), 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | St(1) | Yds/St(1) | St(2) | Yds/St(2) | Yds G/L |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 182.8 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 283.2 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 155.6 | 15 | 253.6 | 163% |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 7 | 149.0 | 16 | 235.1 | 158% |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 162.9 | 16 | 205.7 | 126% |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 223.7 | 16 | 276.8 | 124% |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 205.9 | 16 | 244.6 | 119% |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 213.3 | 13 | 246.4 | 115% |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 162.0 | 11 | 183.0 | 113% |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 5 | 200.2 | 16 | 218.6 | 109% |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236.4 | 13 | 253.5 | 107% |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 158.1 | 10 | 166.2 | 105% |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 252.6 | 16 | 255.6 | 101% |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 13 | 169.2 | 15 | 169.7 | 100% |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 10 | 185.3 | 16 | 183.4 | 99% |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 219.5 | 10 | 216.4 | 99% |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13 | 201.6 | 12 | 198.8 | 99% |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 234.8 | 15 | 228.4 | 97% |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 215.0 | 14 | 208.3 | 97% |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13 | 216.8 | 14 | 210.1 | 97% |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253.2 | 16 | 241.8 | 96% |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 12 | 191.2 | 16 | 180.0 | 94% |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273.4 | 16 | 238.9 | 87% |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 226.7 | 3 | 178.3 | 79% |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 231.5 | 5 | 129.4 | 56% |
Among the quarterbacks who saw the biggest decline from Year 1 to Year 2 are a couple of busts (Harrington, Leinart) but also Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck. And the vast majority were pretty similar; within 5 percent of their rookie year numbers (like Winston, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Newton).
The question we're left with is, will Trubisky make a Goff-like leap or undergo a Leinart-like fall? Long, at least, believes the former is more likely.
--Andy Richardson