Gotta love Bears guard Kyle Long, and his colorful description of his second-year quarterback's growth. "My little boy is becoming a man," Long said. "They've taken the training wheels off of Mitch's little bike. " So what can be expected from Mitchell Trubisky in Year 2?
We can say with confidence that Chicago's offense will be more creative, going from the conservative approach overseen by John Fox last year to Matt Nagy, the offensive coordinator for Kansas City the last two seasons. According to Long, they're going to give Trubisky, selected No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, more chances to "showcase his skills."
Out of curiosity, I took a look at all quarterbacks selected in the top 12 this century, and what kind of step up -- or step back -- they took from Year 1 to Year 2. I ditched the quarterbacks who threw for fewer than 1,000 yards as rookies, most of whom rode the bench all year. No point showing the improvement in their second seasons from guys who watched all year, the likes of Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers.
This century, there have been 25 such quarterbacks. About half of them (12) threw for more yards in their second seasons; a similar number (11) threw for slightly fewer yards. Two (Trubisky and Deshaun Watson), we'll see.
| QBS SELECTED IN TOP 12, 2000-PRESENT, YR1 VS YR2 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Yds(1) | TD(1) | Yds(2) | TD(2) | Yds G/L | TD G/L |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 1043 | 3 | 3762 | 25 | 361% | 833% |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 1001 | 9 | 3497 | 21 | 349% | 233% |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 1089 | 6 | 3804 | 29 | 349% | 483% |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 1853 | 13 | 2935 | 20 | 158% | 154% |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2908 | 11 | 4428 | 37 | 152% | 336% |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 2444 | 15 | 3291 | 20 | 135% | 133% |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 2294 | 12 | 2880 | 17 | 126% | 142% |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 2818 | 21 | 3426 | 28 | 122% | 133% |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 3294 | 14 | 3913 | 25 | 119% | 179% |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 2199 | 19 | 2546 | 12 | 116% | 63% |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 2819 | 16 | 2941 | 17 | 104% | 106% |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4042 | 28 | 4090 | 29 | 101% | 104% |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 3200 | 27 | 3203 | 16 | 100% | 59% |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4051 | 35 | 3869 | 27 | 96% | 77% |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 2621 | 18 | 2385 | 20 | 91% | 111% |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4374 | 28 | 3822 | 27 | 87% | 96% |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3782 | 18 | 3296 | 33 | 87% | 183% |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 3440 | 17 | 2916 | 23 | 85% | 135% |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 2592 | 12 | 2013 | 11 | 78% | 92% |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 2214 | 12 | 1662 | 9 | 75% | 75% |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 3512 | 19 | 2164 | 6 | 62% | 32% |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 2547 | 13 | 647 | 2 | 25% | 15% |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 2267 | 15 | 535 | 7 | 24% | 47% |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 2193 | 9 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 1699 | 21 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Numbers also show percentage increases in touchdowns, with rushing scores included.
Hard to read too much into these numbers because guys either got hurt (Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford) or played only part of their rookie season before then playing full-time (Jared Goff). That being said, Long's words just highlight what seems apparent: Trubisky should benefit from a new coaching staff, and a year under his belt of getting reps. Some additional weapons, too, in Trey Burton and Allen Robinson.
Not a guy to build a roster around, but some flier potential as a No. 2 quarterback.
--Andy Richardson