Scheduletron

July 21, 2018

Strength of schedule

Rushing and passing scheduling information

Some are fans of strength of schedule, and not just for wins and points. They like to see rushing and passing schedules as well, and those figures are published below.

On these charts, I used only the first 15 games for each team. Most fantasy leagues don’t use Week 17, so I left those games out. On the charts, I’m listing per-game numbers for yards; I think that’s more understandable and intuitive for people to read. But I’m using per-season numbers for touchdowns. I think most people have a better feel for what 27 TD passes in a season feels like, rather than 1.69 TD passes per game.

For rushing, the Bears, Broncos and Patriots project to play the easiest schedules. That’s using standard scoring and assuming defenses will play like they did last year. Washington, Tampa Bay and the Giants project to play the hardest schedules (for rushing).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (G 1-15)
Team	Yd/G	TD/Yr	Pts/G
Chicago	112	12.6	16.3
Denver	113	12.3	16.2
New England	111	12.8	16.2
Oakland	112	11.9	15.9
Arizona	113	11.6	15.9
Minnesota	111	12.1	15.9
Tennessee	115	11.0	15.9
LA Chargers	109	12.2	15.8
Cleveland	112	11.4	15.7
Carolina	111	11.6	15.7
Green Bay	110	11.8	15.7
NY Jets	108	12.0	15.6
Baltimore	110	11.6	15.6
San Francisco	109	11.8	15.6
Miami	112	10.9	15.6
Cincinnati	108	11.6	15.5
Kansas City	111	10.8	15.4
Jacksonville	110	10.9	15.4
Indianapolis	112	10.4	15.4
Buffalo	111	10.4	15.3
Pittsburgh	110	10.6	15.2
Seattle	108	11.0	15.2
New Orleans	108	10.9	15.1
Dallas	109	10.6	15.1
Detroit	107	10.8	15.0
Houston	109	10.3	15.0
LA Rams	105	11.1	14.9
Philadelphia	110	9.9	14.9
Atlanta	107	10.3	14.8
Tampa Bay	107	9.9	14.7
NY Giants	107	9.8	14.7
Washington	106	9.4	14.3

For passing, Jacksonville, Washington and Houston project to play the easiest schedules. And note that Chicago (No. 1 for rushing) is up there at 4th.) Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland project to play the hardest schedules for passing. Again using standard scoring (6 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 10 yards).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (G 1-15)
Team	Yd/G	TD/Yr	Pts/G
Jacksonville	248	23.4	34.2
Washington	245	24.1	34.1
Houston	242	23.4	33.6
Chicago	247	22.1	33.5
Atlanta	243	22.7	33.3
Minnesota	245	21.9	33.3
Philadelphia	241	22.8	33.2
Dallas	243	22.1	33.1
Indianapolis	239	22.9	33.0
Miami	243	21.6	33.0
NY Giants	240	22.2	32.9
Buffalo	241	21.8	32.8
Tampa Bay	239	22.1	32.8
Carolina	242	21.4	32.8
Denver	240	21.8	32.7
Cincinnati	240	21.6	32.6
LA Chargers	240	21.3	32.6
Seattle	238	21.8	32.5
Tennessee	237	22.1	32.5
New Orleans	240	21.3	32.5
NY Jets	239	21.3	32.4
Cleveland	238	21.4	32.3
San Francisco	239	21.0	32.3
Pittsburgh	238	21.1	32.2
New England	239	20.8	32.2
Baltimore	238	20.8	32.2
Arizona	236	20.9	32.0
LA Rams	236	20.9	32.0
Detroit	236	20.6	31.9
Oakland	232	21.3	31.7
Green Bay	235	19.6	31.4
Kansas City	229	20.9	31.3

I am not, by the way, much of a believer in trying to using specified strength of schedule. I don’t think it’s the secret edge to help you win fantasy football games. Look, for example, at teams that projected to play top-5 (easy) rushing schedules in the last four years. There was some correlation with these 20 teams; 40 percent of them (8 of 20) played top-6 rushing schedules. But almost half (9 of 20) actually played below-average schedules.

TOP-5 RUSHING SCHEDULES (last 4 years)
Year	Team	Yd/G	TD/Yr	Pt/G	Rnk
2014	NY Jets	109	9.7	14.5	27
2014	Minnesota	107	11.2	14.9	19
2014	Indianapolis	115	11.6	15.9	10
2014	Jacksonville	117	12.1	16.2	5
2014	Houston	117	13.2	16.6	2
2015	Houston	107	11.9	15.1	17
2015	Carolina	111	12.9	15.9	5
2015	Washington	115	11.9	16.0	4
2015	Tampa Bay	112	12.7	16.0	3
2015	Atlanta	114	12.3	16.0	2
2016	Green Bay	105	12.7	15.2	29
2016	Minnesota	104	12.8	15.2	28
2016	Chicago	107	12.4	15.3	27
2016	Detroit	105	13.2	15.5	26
2016	Dallas	109	13.0	15.8	20
2017	Carolina	108	12.1	15.3	23
2017	LA Chargers	110	11.7	15.4	15
2017	NY Jets	112	12.3	15.8	6
2017	Tennessee	112	12.7	16.0	4
2017	New England	111	13.3	16.1	3

It’s similar with passing. Look at the 20 teams projecting to play easy schedules in the last four years – top-5 schedules. Again, only a slight majority even played above-average schedules (12 of 20). Four played top-6 schedules, but four played bottom-10 schedules.

In general, when trying to build your team, I think your time is better spent elsewhere.

TOP-5 PASSING SCHEDULES (last 4 years)
Year	Team	Yd/G	TD/Yr	Pt/G	Rnk
2014	Detroit	256	24.6	34.8	10
2014	Seattle	255	24.1	34.5	13
2014	Buffalo	247	25.3	34.2	16
2014	Chicago	250	23.0	33.6	24
2014	Miami	248	23.4	33.5	26
2015	Atlanta	266	30.3	38.0	2
2015	Tampa Bay	266	29.1	37.5	3
2015	Carolina	264	28.4	37.1	6
2015	NY Giants	262	27.7	36.6	12
2015	New Orleans	256	26.5	35.5	18
2016	NY Giants	261	26.1	35.9	2
2016	Dallas	259	24.5	35.1	11
2016	Cleveland	260	23.9	34.9	15
2016	Baltimore	255	24.7	34.8	17
2016	Cincinnati	250	24.7	34.3	27
2017	Carolina	247	22.5	33.1	7
2017	Chicago	244	22.9	32.9	10
2017	New Orleans	242	22.3	32.6	17
2017	Tampa Bay	240	22.9	32.6	20
2017	Minnesota	241	22.3	32.5	23

—Ian Allan

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