In the last version of the podcast, we kicked around the idea that scheduling might help New England’s defense finish with big numbers. Specifically, six games against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. It seemed like an idea worth looking into further.
Justin (Eleff) was just going off feel, of course, but it is possible to put numbers to the theory. For starters, you decide just how many interceptions and sacks rookie quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Sam Darnold might be involved in.
On this one, I used a blend of how quarterbacks and teams have played the last few years, the quality of their offensive lines, and which teams might be plugging in rookie quarterbacks. There’s plenty of guesswork involved. In Arizona, for example, we don’t know how many games they’ll start Sam Bradford (who tends to be good at avoiding sacks and interceptions) and how many they’ll use Josh Rosen (who’s a rookie).
Cleveland probably will start Baker Mayfield in some games, and he’ll probably be a delight for defenses. When Tyrod Taylor is in there, he tends to take lots of sacks but has been the best quarterback in the league at avoiding turnovers over the last three years.
There’s guesswork involved. I stayed away from fumbles and touchdowns, looking only at interceptions and sacks. Using 2 points for interceptions and 1 for sacks, I have the Bills and Jets as the two friendliest offenses for defenses. Houston and Carolina are next in line. (While everyone loves what Deshaun Watson did last year, he averaged 3 sacks and an interception per game, and he’s working behind a lesser line.)
INTERCEPTIONS AND SACKS (projected) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
Buffalo | 19 | 50 | 88 |
NY Jets | 18 | 47 | 83 |
Houston | 17 | 48 | 82 |
Carolina | 16 | 48 | 80 |
Miami | 13 | 46 | 72 |
Chicago | 15 | 41 | 71 |
Tampa Bay | 17 | 37 | 71 |
Cleveland | 10 | 50 | 70 |
Arizona | 13 | 42 | 68 |
Indianapolis | 14 | 40 | 68 |
Kansas City | 14 | 37 | 65 |
Detroit | 10 | 44 | 64 |
Seattle | 11 | 42 | 64 |
NY Giants | 14 | 35 | 63 |
Minnesota | 12 | 37 | 61 |
Cincinnati | 11 | 37 | 59 |
Denver | 12 | 32 | 56 |
Tennessee | 13 | 30 | 56 |
Jacksonville | 14 | 28 | 56 |
Pittsburgh | 16 | 24 | 56 |
San Francisco | 11 | 33 | 55 |
Dallas | 12 | 31 | 55 |
Green Bay | 7 | 40 | 54 |
Baltimore | 13 | 28 | 54 |
New England | 9 | 34 | 52 |
Atlanta | 11 | 30 | 52 |
Washington | 7 | 36 | 50 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 30 | 50 |
Oakland | 12 | 25 | 49 |
LA Chargers | 12 | 25 | 49 |
LA Rams | 11 | 25 | 47 |
New Orleans | 10 | 24 | 44 |
If we take those numbers and then merge them with the 256-game schedule, they indicate that the Patriots will, in fact, play the most defense-friendly schedule in the league.
Not that New England merits an early draft pick. It's doesn't have enough talent on that side of the ball. But after the first half dozen at that position have been chosen, it could pay off nicely to select that defense.
DEFENSIVE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
New England | 232 | 655 | 1,119 |
Miami | 217 | 632 | 1,066 |
NY Jets | 206 | 650 | 1,062 |
Jacksonville | 220 | 606 | 1,046 |
Detroit | 201 | 634 | 1,036 |
Buffalo | 207 | 615 | 1,029 |
Tennessee | 217 | 594 | 1,028 |
Green Bay | 197 | 629 | 1,023 |
Chicago | 194 | 633 | 1,021 |
Indianapolis | 213 | 583 | 1,009 |
Minnesota | 189 | 623 | 1,001 |
Houston | 206 | 587 | 999 |
Baltimore | 210 | 560 | 980 |
New Orleans | 204 | 563 | 971 |
Atlanta | 199 | 571 | 969 |
Cleveland | 219 | 531 | 969 |
Washington | 204 | 559 | 967 |
Cincinnati | 209 | 548 | 966 |
Denver | 207 | 550 | 964 |
Dallas | 195 | 573 | 963 |
San Francisco | 195 | 571 | 961 |
LA Chargers | 204 | 549 | 957 |
Oakland | 199 | 555 | 953 |
Philadelphia | 201 | 551 | 953 |
NY Giants | 196 | 553 | 945 |
Seattle | 192 | 560 | 944 |
Pittsburgh | 195 | 550 | 940 |
LA Rams | 184 | 569 | 937 |
Tampa Bay | 193 | 549 | 935 |
Carolina | 190 | 539 | 919 |
Arizona | 178 | 547 | 903 |
Kansas City | 191 | 507 | 889 |
—Ian Allan