Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Scheduletron

New England's sneaky defense

Patriots could feast on rookie quarterbacks

In the last version of the podcast, we kicked around the idea that scheduling might help New England’s defense finish with big numbers. Specifically, six games against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. It seemed like an idea worth looking into further.

Justin (Eleff) was just going off feel, of course, but it is possible to put numbers to the theory. For starters, you decide just how many interceptions and sacks rookie quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Sam Darnold might be involved in.

On this one, I used a blend of how quarterbacks and teams have played the last few years, the quality of their offensive lines, and which teams might be plugging in rookie quarterbacks. There’s plenty of guesswork involved. In Arizona, for example, we don’t know how many games they’ll start Sam Bradford (who tends to be good at avoiding sacks and interceptions) and how many they’ll use Josh Rosen (who’s a rookie).

Cleveland probably will start Baker Mayfield in some games, and he’ll probably be a delight for defenses. When Tyrod Taylor is in there, he tends to take lots of sacks but has been the best quarterback in the league at avoiding turnovers over the last three years.

There’s guesswork involved. I stayed away from fumbles and touchdowns, looking only at interceptions and sacks. Using 2 points for interceptions and 1 for sacks, I have the Bills and Jets as the two friendliest offenses for defenses. Houston and Carolina are next in line. (While everyone loves what Deshaun Watson did last year, he averaged 3 sacks and an interception per game, and he’s working behind a lesser line.)

INTERCEPTIONS AND SACKS (projected)
TeamIntSackPoints
Buffalo195088
NY Jets184783
Houston174882
Carolina164880
Miami134672
Chicago154171
Tampa Bay173771
Cleveland105070
Arizona134268
Indianapolis144068
Kansas City143765
Detroit104464
Seattle114264
NY Giants143563
Minnesota123761
Cincinnati113759
Denver123256
Tennessee133056
Jacksonville142856
Pittsburgh162456
San Francisco113355
Dallas123155
Green Bay74054
Baltimore132854
New England93452
Atlanta113052
Washington73650
Philadelphia103050
Oakland122549
LA Chargers122549
LA Rams112547
New Orleans102444

If we take those numbers and then merge them with the 256-game schedule, they indicate that the Patriots will, in fact, play the most defense-friendly schedule in the league.

Not that New England merits an early draft pick. It's doesn't have enough talent on that side of the ball. But after the first half dozen at that position have been chosen, it could pay off nicely to select that defense.

DEFENSIVE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
TeamIntSackPoints
New England2326551,119
Miami2176321,066
NY Jets2066501,062
Jacksonville2206061,046
Detroit2016341,036
Buffalo2076151,029
Tennessee2175941,028
Green Bay1976291,023
Chicago1946331,021
Indianapolis2135831,009
Minnesota1896231,001
Houston206587999
Baltimore210560980
New Orleans204563971
Atlanta199571969
Cleveland219531969
Washington204559967
Cincinnati209548966
Denver207550964
Dallas195573963
San Francisco195571961
LA Chargers204549957
Oakland199555953
Philadelphia201551953
NY Giants196553945
Seattle192560944
Pittsburgh195550940
LA Rams184569937
Tampa Bay193549935
Carolina190539919
Arizona178547903
Kansas City191507889

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index