Pat Shurmur says he thinks he can get Eli Manning up to close to 70 percent completions. That sounds as crazy as the claims coming out of Carolina that Christian McCaffrey might average 25-plus touches per game. It’s just not going to happen.
Shurmur is trying to put together a passer-friendly offense, and there’s no shortage of receiving weapons on that roster, including Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. Shurmur was able to get Case Keenum to complete 67.6 percent of his passes last year.
“I think he can,” Shurmur says in a feature in The New York Post. “I think it’s important that you get him in the high 60s, bordering on 70.”
Which all sounds fine, but is everyone forgetting that in 2014 the Giants hired away from Green Bay the quarterback guru whispering into Aaron Rodgers’ ear? Ben McAdoo put in a similar kind of system, with a lot more of the short, quick completions. McAdoo was also trying to move that completion percentage way up.
In four years under McAdoo, Manning’s highest completion percentage was 63.1 percent (which is also his career high). He finished at 61.6 percent last year.
I will be shocked if Shurmur can move Manning up to 65 percent. He’s just not that kind of quarterback. He’s not accurate and he’s not a quick decision maker. As a passer, he’s a less athletic version of Cam Newton.
In the last four years, 30 quarterbacks have attempted at least 1,000 passes. Manning in that time period has been in a high-completion offense yet still ranks below-average in completion percentage.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE (last 4 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Rating |
| Drew Brees | 69.8% | 19,364 | 125 | 51 | 100.8 |
| Sam Bradford | 68.6% | 7,984 | 42 | 19 | 94.2 |
| Matt Ryan | 66.7% | 18,324 | 107 | 49 | 97.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | 66.5% | 14,886 | 91 | 45 | 96.3 |
| Alex Smith | 66.3% | 14,295 | 79 | 26 | 96.3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 65.9% | 16,960 | 110 | 52 | 96.9 |
| Tom Brady | 65.4% | 17,010 | 129 | 26 | 103.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 64.9% | 11,248 | 70 | 36 | 91.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 64.6% | 17,292 | 107 | 45 | 93.7 |
| Russell Wilson | 64.2% | 15,701 | 109 | 37 | 98.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 64.1% | 14,305 | 125 | 26 | 102.1 |
| Philip Rivers | 64.0% | 17,979 | 121 | 62 | 92.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 63.9% | 14,235 | 79 | 52 | 84.6 |
| Case Keenum | 63.9% | 7,011 | 37 | 21 | 87.9 |
| Jay Cutler | 63.9% | 11,196 | 72 | 48 | 86.8 |
| Andy Dalton | 63.6% | 14,174 | 87 | 44 | 91.3 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 62.6% | 8,857 | 51 | 16 | 92.5 |
| Eli Manning | 62.6% | 16,341 | 110 | 57 | 88.2 |
| Carson Palmer | 62.2% | 12,508 | 81 | 35 | 93.6 |
| Marcus Mariota | 61.8% | 9,476 | 58 | 34 | 88.6 |
| Josh McCown | 61.6% | 8,341 | 47 | 33 | 84.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 61.5% | 7,078 | 49 | 21 | 88.8 |
| Derek Carr | 61.3% | 14,690 | 103 | 44 | 87.5 |
| Andrew Luck | 61.1% | 10,882 | 86 | 41 | 92.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 60.8% | 11,636 | 69 | 44 | 87.2 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 59.7% | 7,225 | 41 | 19 | 85.9 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 59.4% | 10,201 | 67 | 43 | 84.2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 59.4% | 8,664 | 41 | 24 | 84.2 |
| Blake Bortles | 59.1% | 14,928 | 90 | 64 | 80.8 |
| Cam Newton | 57.5% | 13,775 | 94 | 52 | 84.5 |
Giants have nice weapons and an improved offensive line, but I don’t think they have a good enough quarterback to make it go. I expect they’ll have a new starter in 2019, and it might even have to pull Manning at some point this year. In a 12-team league where each team is selecting two quarterbacks, I’m not sure that Manning should even be selected.
—Ian Allan