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Strength of schedule

Is strength of schedule meaningful?

I’m not a big fan of strength of schedule. It’s fun to speculate about beating up on a string of cupcake defenses, but in reality it’s hard to tap into any meaningful sort of meaningful advantage.

Consider, for example, the teams that have played the easiest schedules in the last 10 years. We can look at which teams played the easiest schedules, then reconstruct things and see what kind of schedule they were supposed to play. That is, we might in January point to Miami as having benefitted from playing an easy schedule, but nobody right now expects that will happen (the Dolphins are supposed to play an average schedule).

On this one, I took the three easiest schedules from each of the last 10 years, based on how things actually played out. Then I looked at the preseason expectation for those schedules (tied to the previous season’s performance of opponents).

If we were using strength of schedule as a drafting tool, for example, me might realistically attempt to target players on teams expecting to play top-5 schedules. But with the 30 easiest schedules of the last 10 years in front of me, I see only four that in the preseason were expected to have top-5 schedules (in bold). Two were reverse-barometer teams – offenses that were expected to play bottom-5 schedules.

In this group, 10 of the 30 teams (a third) were expected to play bottom-10 schedules going in. In fairness, I’ll point out that 13 of the 30 were expected to play top-10 schedules, so slight advantage to teams projecting to have easy schedules actually seeing some of that stick.

EASIEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamPointsRnkExpectedRnk
2008Tampa Bay23.9122.44
2008Atlanta23.8221.816
2008Carolina23.6322.36
2009Tennessee23.9122.210
2009Green Bay23.8223.26
2009Seattle23.6323.81
2010Kansas City24.2121.910
2010Jacksonville23.9221.813
2010Tennessee23.8321.716
2011Kansas City24.3121.723
2011Chicago24.3221.526
2011Green Bay24.0321.527
2012Atlanta24.4124.41
2012Indianapolis24.1221.425
2012Jacksonville23.9322.69
2013• Detroit25.8121.828
2013Philadelphia25.5223.07
2013Green Bay25.3321.926
2014Houston24.0124.54
2014Tampa Bay23.8223.519
2014Dallas23.5323.615
2015Miami24.3122.516
2015• St. Louis24.0221.129
2015Dallas24.0323.76
2016Seattle24.5122.423
2016Tampa Bay24.2222.325
2016Los Angeles23.9322.324
2017Tennessee22.6123.29
2017Arizona22.6222.914
2017Jacksonville22.5323.37

Continuing this look, we could also go into drafts attempt to avoid teams projecting to play bottom-5 schedules. Working from this direction, the correlation holds up better. Of the 30 hardest schedules of the last 10 years (three from each season), nine were teams that were expected to play bottom-5 schedules going in (in bold). Only one was of the flip-flop variety (expected to have a top-5 schedule, with everything going wrong). That team is tagged with a dot.

This isn’t an overwhelmingly strong case. A jury wouldn’t convict anyone of anything with this kind of evidence. But the schedules here are coming out ahead of simply flipping a coin.

HARDEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamPointsRnkExpectedRnk
2008Cincinnati19.23220.731
2008Cleveland19.33121.029
2008Houston20.33021.028
2009Washington19.23222.98
2009• San Francisco19.33123.62
2009Philadelphia20.33022.016
2010Cincinnati19.83220.132
2010New England20.03120.527
2010Buffalo20.13020.925
2011Baltimore19.73222.016
2011Cincinnati19.73122.115
2011Pittsburgh20.03022.310
2012Arizona21.23221.823
2012St. Louis21.23122.019
2012Seattle21.43022.413
2013Atlanta21.13222.711
2013Arizona21.23121.925
2013Tampa Bay21.23022.612
2014Oakland20.83221.831
2014Denver20.93121.532
2014San Diego21.53022.528
2015Pittsburgh21.33220.831
2015Detroit21.53122.517
2015Kansas City21.63022.119
2016Washington21.23223.37
2016Philadelphia21.43122.916
2016Cleveland21.63022.721
2017Green Bay20.73222.521
2017Detroit20.73123.013
2017Washington21.03021.731

Ultimately, I just don’t see enough here. Of the 30 easy schedules – the teams playing opponents that allowed 24.0 points per game, those offenses in the preseason were supposed to play opponents allowing 22.5 points per game. That’s hardly different than the 30 hard schedules, who were expected to be at 22.0 in the preseason (but closed at 20.6).

If you want to try to use strength of schedule, proceed at your own peril. The numbers suggest the Jaguars, Patriots, Jets, Texans and Chargers will play the easiest schedules this year – they’ll see the softest defenses (in theory). The Saints, Steelers, Lions, Bucs and Kansas City project to play the hardest schedules.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index