Fantasy News

August 30, 2018

Team offensive projections

Packers appear to have top passing offense

The revised version of the Cheat Sheet Update will be coming out later today. I’ve gone through and audited and adjusted all of the projections – not only fusing in the latest headlines but looking at each team and each player.

As part of this, I like to look at the 32 offense and how they compare in each of the five major categories we track – passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I look at how those stats are divided amongst the players inside each of those teams, and then I look at the how the player lists come out (adjusting numbers when I want a player to move up or down a few spots).

The Thursday edition also includes dynasty rankings, and those are in place. (Teddy Bridgewater is the most interesting newcomer there; with Drew Brees being 39, there’s some chance Bridgewater will become a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the foreseeable future – should be selected after about 30 quarterbacks in a dynasty format, I think.)

For touchdowns, I’ve currently got the Patriots, Packers and Saints leading the league in scoring. I’ve got all those offenses averaging about 3 TDs per game.

At the other end of the scale, I have the Bills locked in to finish as the league’s lowest-scoring offense (by a lot). I have four other offenses averaging under 2 TDs per game – Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins, Broncos.

OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (touchdowns)
Team	Pass	Run	Total
New England	31.5	17.0	48.5
Green Bay	35.8	11.8	47.7
New Orleans	28.5	17.6	46.1
LA Rams	28.3	16.5	44.8
Pittsburgh	31.2	12.8	44.0
LA Chargers	29.1	11.4	40.5
Philadelphia	28.5	11.8	40.3
Minnesota	25.0	13.0	37.9
Houston	28.8	8.8	37.6
Atlanta	25.0	12.3	37.3
Carolina	21.9	15.4	37.3
San Francisco	26.2	11.0	37.3
Kansas City	24.6	12.3	37.0
Tampa Bay	28.8	8.2	37.0
Baltimore	23.8	12.3	36.2
Dallas	20.2	16.0	36.2
NY Giants	24.2	11.8	36.0
Jacksonville	18.7	16.8	35.5
Oakland	23.8	11.5	35.4
Seattle	23.0	12.0	35.0
Washington	24.3	10.4	34.7
Cincinnati	25.1	9.4	34.6
Tennessee	22.4	12.2	34.6
Indianapolis	24.8	9.6	34.4
Detroit	24.6	9.6	34.2
Chicago	21.1	11.6	32.7
Cleveland	21.4	10.9	32.3
Denver	21.6	10.2	31.8
Miami	23.2	8.6	31.8
Arizona	20.5	10.7	31.2
NY Jets	18.4	11.0	29.4
Buffalo	17.1	9.8	26.9

For rushing, I’ve got Jacksonville, Dallas, New Orleans and Carolina at the top. The Bucs, Lions and Bengals are at the bottom of my list.

Offenses here are ranked by standard scoring – 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6 for every rushing touchdown. Note that these are rushing projections, not running back projections. They don’t include receiving stats for running backs (but they include quarterbacks).

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
Team	Yards	TDR	Points
Jacksonville	135	1.05	19.8
Dallas	132	1.00	19.2
New Orleans	117	1.10	18.3
Carolina	125	.96	18.3
New England	116	1.06	18.0
LA Rams	112	1.03	17.4
Minnesota	112	.81	16.1
Atlanta	114	.77	16.0
San Francisco	118	.69	15.9
Philadelphia	115	.74	15.9
Kansas City	113	.77	15.9
Baltimore	112	.77	15.8
Tennessee	112	.76	15.8
Green Bay	112	.74	15.6
Oakland	113	.72	15.6
Pittsburgh	107	.80	15.5
Cleveland	113	.68	15.4
Seattle	108	.75	15.3
Chicago	108	.73	15.2
NY Jets	110	.69	15.1
LA Chargers	104	.71	14.7
NY Giants	102	.74	14.6
Denver	106	.64	14.4
Arizona	103	.67	14.3
Washington	103	.65	14.2
Houston	108	.55	14.1
Buffalo	102	.61	13.9
Miami	105	.54	13.7
Indianapolis	96	.60	13.2
Cincinnati	95	.59	13.0
Detroit	90	.60	12.6
Tampa Bay	90	.51	12.1

For passing, I’ve got the Packers, Patriots, Steelers and Bucs at the top. (I continue to believe that while Jameis Winston must sit out the first three games, he’s still a viable fantasy option.) The Bills, Jets and Jaguars, I think, will have the worst passing offenses.

Teams are ordered by the same standard scoring system – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards. Last week somebody asked to see the quarterback points (4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards). I have also included those numbers, though the 1 thru 32 numbers are almost identical. There’s some slight shifting with the teams ranking 9th to 13th.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
Team	Yards	TDP	Pts (Rec)	Pts (Pass)	Diff
Green Bay	273	2.24	40.7	22.6	---
New England	288	1.97	40.6	22.3	---
Pittsburgh	282	1.95	39.9	21.9	---
Tampa Bay	285	1.80	39.3	21.5	---
LA Chargers	282	1.82	39.1	21.4	---
New Orleans	278	1.78	38.5	21.0	---
Houston	266	1.80	37.4	20.5	---
LA Rams	253	1.77	35.9	19.7	---
Atlanta	263	1.56	35.7	19.4	-1
Philadelphia	248	1.78	35.5	19.5	+1
Washington	263	1.52	35.4	19.2	-1
Detroit	261	1.54	35.3	19.2	-1
San Francisco	254	1.64	35.2	19.3	+2
Indianapolis	257	1.55	35.0	19.1	---
Seattle	262	1.44	34.8	18.9	---
Minnesota	251	1.56	34.5	18.8	---
Kansas City	252	1.54	34.4	18.8	---
Cincinnati	248	1.57	34.2	18.7	---
NY Giants	246	1.51	33.7	18.3	---
Baltimore	241	1.49	33.0	18.0	---
Oakland	240	1.49	32.9	18.0	---
Miami	235	1.45	32.2	17.6	---
Tennessee	235	1.40	31.9	17.4	---
Denver	232	1.35	31.3	17.0	---
Carolina	230	1.37	31.2	17.0	---
Chicago	225	1.32	30.4	16.5	---
Cleveland	223	1.34	30.3	16.5	---
Arizona	222	1.28	29.9	16.2	---
Dallas	222	1.26	29.8	16.1	---
Jacksonville	218	1.17	28.8	15.6	---
NY Jets	210	1.15	27.9	15.1	---
Buffalo	203	1.07	26.7	14.4	---

—Ian Allan

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