The revised version of the Cheat Sheet Update will be coming out later today. I’ve gone through and audited and adjusted all of the projections – not only fusing in the latest headlines but looking at each team and each player.
As part of this, I like to look at the 32 offense and how they compare in each of the five major categories we track – passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I look at how those stats are divided amongst the players inside each of those teams, and then I look at the how the player lists come out (adjusting numbers when I want a player to move up or down a few spots).
The Thursday edition also includes dynasty rankings, and those are in place. (Teddy Bridgewater is the most interesting newcomer there; with Drew Brees being 39, there’s some chance Bridgewater will become a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the foreseeable future – should be selected after about 30 quarterbacks in a dynasty format, I think.)
For touchdowns, I’ve currently got the Patriots, Packers and Saints leading the league in scoring. I’ve got all those offenses averaging about 3 TDs per game.
At the other end of the scale, I have the Bills locked in to finish as the league’s lowest-scoring offense (by a lot). I have four other offenses averaging under 2 TDs per game – Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins, Broncos.
| OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (touchdowns) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New England | 31.5 | 17.0 | 48.5 |
| Green Bay | 35.8 | 11.8 | 47.7 |
| New Orleans | 28.5 | 17.6 | 46.1 |
| LA Rams | 28.3 | 16.5 | 44.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 31.2 | 12.8 | 44.0 |
| LA Chargers | 29.1 | 11.4 | 40.5 |
| Philadelphia | 28.5 | 11.8 | 40.3 |
| Minnesota | 25.0 | 13.0 | 37.9 |
| Houston | 28.8 | 8.8 | 37.6 |
| Atlanta | 25.0 | 12.3 | 37.3 |
| Carolina | 21.9 | 15.4 | 37.3 |
| San Francisco | 26.2 | 11.0 | 37.3 |
| Kansas City | 24.6 | 12.3 | 37.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.8 | 8.2 | 37.0 |
| Baltimore | 23.8 | 12.3 | 36.2 |
| Dallas | 20.2 | 16.0 | 36.2 |
| NY Giants | 24.2 | 11.8 | 36.0 |
| Jacksonville | 18.7 | 16.8 | 35.5 |
| Oakland | 23.8 | 11.5 | 35.4 |
| Seattle | 23.0 | 12.0 | 35.0 |
| Washington | 24.3 | 10.4 | 34.7 |
| Cincinnati | 25.1 | 9.4 | 34.6 |
| Tennessee | 22.4 | 12.2 | 34.6 |
| Indianapolis | 24.8 | 9.6 | 34.4 |
| Detroit | 24.6 | 9.6 | 34.2 |
| Chicago | 21.1 | 11.6 | 32.7 |
| Cleveland | 21.4 | 10.9 | 32.3 |
| Denver | 21.6 | 10.2 | 31.8 |
| Miami | 23.2 | 8.6 | 31.8 |
| Arizona | 20.5 | 10.7 | 31.2 |
| NY Jets | 18.4 | 11.0 | 29.4 |
| Buffalo | 17.1 | 9.8 | 26.9 |
For rushing, I’ve got Jacksonville, Dallas, New Orleans and Carolina at the top. The Bucs, Lions and Bengals are at the bottom of my list.
Offenses here are ranked by standard scoring – 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6 for every rushing touchdown. Note that these are rushing projections, not running back projections. They don’t include receiving stats for running backs (but they include quarterbacks).
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Jacksonville | 135 | 1.05 | 19.8 |
| Dallas | 132 | 1.00 | 19.2 |
| New Orleans | 117 | 1.10 | 18.3 |
| Carolina | 125 | .96 | 18.3 |
| New England | 116 | 1.06 | 18.0 |
| LA Rams | 112 | 1.03 | 17.4 |
| Minnesota | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
| Atlanta | 114 | .77 | 16.0 |
| San Francisco | 118 | .69 | 15.9 |
| Philadelphia | 115 | .74 | 15.9 |
| Kansas City | 113 | .77 | 15.9 |
| Baltimore | 112 | .77 | 15.8 |
| Tennessee | 112 | .76 | 15.8 |
| Green Bay | 112 | .74 | 15.6 |
| Oakland | 113 | .72 | 15.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 107 | .80 | 15.5 |
| Cleveland | 113 | .68 | 15.4 |
| Seattle | 108 | .75 | 15.3 |
| Chicago | 108 | .73 | 15.2 |
| NY Jets | 110 | .69 | 15.1 |
| LA Chargers | 104 | .71 | 14.7 |
| NY Giants | 102 | .74 | 14.6 |
| Denver | 106 | .64 | 14.4 |
| Arizona | 103 | .67 | 14.3 |
| Washington | 103 | .65 | 14.2 |
| Houston | 108 | .55 | 14.1 |
| Buffalo | 102 | .61 | 13.9 |
| Miami | 105 | .54 | 13.7 |
| Indianapolis | 96 | .60 | 13.2 |
| Cincinnati | 95 | .59 | 13.0 |
| Detroit | 90 | .60 | 12.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 90 | .51 | 12.1 |
For passing, I’ve got the Packers, Patriots, Steelers and Bucs at the top. (I continue to believe that while Jameis Winston must sit out the first three games, he’s still a viable fantasy option.) The Bills, Jets and Jaguars, I think, will have the worst passing offenses.
Teams are ordered by the same standard scoring system – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards. Last week somebody asked to see the quarterback points (4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards). I have also included those numbers, though the 1 thru 32 numbers are almost identical. There’s some slight shifting with the teams ranking 9th to 13th.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Pts (Rec) | Pts (Pass) | Diff |
| Green Bay | 273 | 2.24 | 40.7 | 22.6 | --- |
| New England | 288 | 1.97 | 40.6 | 22.3 | --- |
| Pittsburgh | 282 | 1.95 | 39.9 | 21.9 | --- |
| Tampa Bay | 285 | 1.80 | 39.3 | 21.5 | --- |
| LA Chargers | 282 | 1.82 | 39.1 | 21.4 | --- |
| New Orleans | 278 | 1.78 | 38.5 | 21.0 | --- |
| Houston | 266 | 1.80 | 37.4 | 20.5 | --- |
| LA Rams | 253 | 1.77 | 35.9 | 19.7 | --- |
| Atlanta | 263 | 1.56 | 35.7 | 19.4 | -1 |
| Philadelphia | 248 | 1.78 | 35.5 | 19.5 | +1 |
| Washington | 263 | 1.52 | 35.4 | 19.2 | -1 |
| Detroit | 261 | 1.54 | 35.3 | 19.2 | -1 |
| San Francisco | 254 | 1.64 | 35.2 | 19.3 | +2 |
| Indianapolis | 257 | 1.55 | 35.0 | 19.1 | --- |
| Seattle | 262 | 1.44 | 34.8 | 18.9 | --- |
| Minnesota | 251 | 1.56 | 34.5 | 18.8 | --- |
| Kansas City | 252 | 1.54 | 34.4 | 18.8 | --- |
| Cincinnati | 248 | 1.57 | 34.2 | 18.7 | --- |
| NY Giants | 246 | 1.51 | 33.7 | 18.3 | --- |
| Baltimore | 241 | 1.49 | 33.0 | 18.0 | --- |
| Oakland | 240 | 1.49 | 32.9 | 18.0 | --- |
| Miami | 235 | 1.45 | 32.2 | 17.6 | --- |
| Tennessee | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 | 17.4 | --- |
| Denver | 232 | 1.35 | 31.3 | 17.0 | --- |
| Carolina | 230 | 1.37 | 31.2 | 17.0 | --- |
| Chicago | 225 | 1.32 | 30.4 | 16.5 | --- |
| Cleveland | 223 | 1.34 | 30.3 | 16.5 | --- |
| Arizona | 222 | 1.28 | 29.9 | 16.2 | --- |
| Dallas | 222 | 1.26 | 29.8 | 16.1 | --- |
| Jacksonville | 218 | 1.17 | 28.8 | 15.6 | --- |
| NY Jets | 210 | 1.15 | 27.9 | 15.1 | --- |
| Buffalo | 203 | 1.07 | 26.7 | 14.4 | --- |
—Ian Allan