The season starts tomorrow, so let me lock in on my final power rankings – my attempt to put the teams (not offenses, but NFL teams) in an approximate order. I posted something similar last week, but there have been additional developments since that time – most notably the Khalil Mack trade.
On the chart below, the win-loss records aren’t a reflection of how I believe the teams will finish. (I don’t expect 12 teams to tie games). Instead they’re an estimate of how I think each team would fare if it played a typical schedule. I believe the Browns (5-10-1), for example, are slightly better than the Jets and Dolphins (5-11), but those AFC East teams might benefit from easier schedules, finishing with slightly better records.
| PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
| New England | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
| LA Rams | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
| Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Atlanta | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| LA Chargers | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Jacksonville | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Houston | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Baltimore | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Carolina | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Kansas City | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Cincinnati | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| San Francisco | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Seattle | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Chicago | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Dallas | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| NY Giants | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Detroit | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Washington | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Denver | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
| Arizona | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Indianapolis | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Cleveland | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| NY Jets | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Miami | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Oakland | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 |
A look at each division:
AFC EAST: I think the Patriots are still the best team in the league, and the other three teams in this group would all be last-place teams in the vast majority of divisions.
AFC NORTH: The Browns are improved and looking to move up, but they’re in a tough group. I don’t see much difference between the top 3, with the Ravens and Bengals both looking improved and the Steelers looking ripe for a decline.
AFC SOUTH: Andrew Luck seems to be kind of back, but there’s not enough around him – no offensive line and no defense. So I’ve putting them last. Jacksonville has the killer defense, but it might have the worst starting quarterback in the league. That makes for a close battle with Houston. If I had more confidence in Marcus Mariota, I would have the Titans right there with them.
AFC WEST: A few months back, I saw little separation between these four teams, but now I’m warming up to the Chargers. Their defense is looking good, and they’ve got a lot of weapons around Philip Rivers. Kansas City looks like its going to fall off, particularly on defense. Now that the Raiders have dished off Khalil Mack, I’m very comfortable expecting them to have a bottom-5 defense and looking like the clear last-place team.
NFC EAST: Not much difference between Dallas, New York and Washington – three mediocre teams that don’t seem to be capable of double-digit wins. With Carson Wentz hurt and the Eagles seemingly afflicted by the Super Bowl blahs, I’m not sure they’re much better.
NFC NORTH: This is a tough division. Green Bay and Minnesota both have Super Bowl aspirations, and the bottom half of the division is improved. Last week, I thought the Lions looked pretty safe to at least finished 3rd, but now the Bears are looking a lot more formidable. For fantasy purposes, the schedule doesn’t break well for Detroit’s offense. Both of their games against Chicago are in the second half of the season, when Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith should be dialed in and playing good ball. All four of these teams get to play those three weak teams in the AFC East.
NFC SOUTH: The Bucs look like the Cleveland Browns of this division. They’ve got some good players and are looking to move up, but tough to get past the other three, who all made the playoffs last year. Carolina has offensive line issues, so I’m ranking it just behind the Falcons and Saints.
NFC WEST: Rams should win this division comfortably. The Seahawks are slipping and the 49ers aren’t there yet – I have those two as .500-type teams.
—Ian Allan