At this point in the season, with teams having played a meaningful amount of games, I like to look more at preliminary slotting numbers. That is, you take how each offense has performed, average it against each defense, and see where the numbers direct you.
For defenses, the lesser defenses that bubble toward the surface include Washington and Detroit. I’m not saying these are the teams to target. Washington has really slipped in the last month, and the Lions are on the road against a Buffalo offense that in recent weeks has done a better job of not shooting itself in the foot. But maybe Darius Slay (pictured) can come up with another Pick Six; Josh Allen tossed a pair of interceptions on Sunday, including one that was comically awful.
But if you look at defenses have done and what offenses have done, those are the defenses that most notably move up into the top 10.
At the other end of the scale, the Chargers, Steelers and Cowboys tend to be regarded as top-10 defense, but they show up in the bottom 10 in the preliminary averaging numbers.
On the chart below, I am looking at sacks, interceptions and fumbles. You take the totals for each team, averaging them down to per-game numbers. The “points” is based on 2 points for takeaways and 1 for each sack.
DEFENSIVE SLOTTING NUMBERS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Opponent | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
Chicago | Green Bay | 3.12 | 1.04 | .73 | 6.65 |
Seattle | San Francisco | 2.87 | 1.12 | .72 | 6.54 |
Washington | Jacksonville | 2.77 | .92 | .88 | 6.38 |
Houston | NY Jets | 2.46 | 1.23 | .65 | 6.23 |
Detroit | Buffalo | 2.92 | 1.00 | .58 | 6.08 |
Denver | Cleveland | 2.92 | 1.04 | .54 | 6.08 |
Baltimore | Tampa Bay | 2.85 | 1.15 | .42 | 6.00 |
LA Rams | Philadelphia | 2.69 | .85 | .81 | 6.00 |
Indianapolis | Dallas | 3.19 | .69 | .69 | 5.96 |
Minnesota | Miami | 2.88 | .84 | .60 | 5.78 |
Buffalo | Detroit | 2.62 | .92 | .58 | 5.62 |
Miami | Minnesota | 2.10 | 1.11 | .61 | 5.52 |
Cleveland | Denver | 2.31 | .96 | .62 | 5.46 |
NY Jets | Houston | 2.85 | .85 | .42 | 5.38 |
Green Bay | Chicago | 2.65 | .81 | .54 | 5.35 |
New Orleans | Carolina | 2.54 | .88 | .50 | 5.31 |
Cincinnati | Oakland | 2.73 | .73 | .54 | 5.27 |
NY Giants | Tennessee | 2.58 | .96 | .35 | 5.19 |
Arizona | Atlanta | 2.96 | .46 | .65 | 5.19 |
Atlanta | Arizona | 2.38 | .96 | .35 | 5.00 |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | 2.54 | .65 | .54 | 4.92 |
Tennessee | NY Giants | 2.92 | .62 | .35 | 4.85 |
New England | Pittsburgh | 1.62 | 1.08 | .50 | 4.77 |
Dallas | Indianapolis | 1.96 | .81 | .54 | 4.65 |
Jacksonville | Washington | 2.31 | .85 | .31 | 4.62 |
Tampa Bay | Baltimore | 2.31 | .65 | .50 | 4.62 |
Philadelphia | LA Rams | 2.42 | .73 | .31 | 4.50 |
Pittsburgh | New England | 2.42 | .54 | .50 | 4.50 |
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 2.12 | .88 | .27 | 4.42 |
Carolina | New Orleans | 1.69 | .58 | .58 | 4.00 |
San Francisco | Seattle | 2.73 | .29 | .28 | 3.87 |
Oakland | Cincinnati | 1.54 | .85 | .27 | 3.77 |
—Ian Allan