The final end zone pass to Julio Jones in the first game of the season fell incomplete, and we should not be surprised. Great as he is, Jones hasn’t been an effective wide receiver in that part of the field.
Since 2014, 37 wide receivers have seen at least 20 targets when their teams have been inside the 10-yard line. That’s including 2-point conversions (which officially aren’t considered plays, but we’re using our own home-cooked numbers here). All but one of those players has scored on a higher percentage of is throws.
When the Falcons have gone to Jones in that part of the field, they completed only 15 of 37 passes, with 8 TDs. So they’ve scored on under 22 percent of their plays in that area.
The numbers suggest they should use Mohamed Sanu more. Since he joined the team in 2016, they’ve gone 12 of 17 when passing to him inside the 10, with 8 TDs and 2-point conversion – more scores on fewer than half as many pass plays.
This isn’t all on Jones, of course. Some of the throws no doubt weren’t catchable. But I don’t think his immense talents are at their best on those kind of plays. I think Jones is a bigger version of T.Y. Hilton. Those guys are really fast, and I think they’re at their best when they have a lot of room to operate with. Defenders have to back off because they’re afraid of getting toasted for long touchdowns. Down around the end zone, that element is removed.
Complete numbers are below. The top 2 on the list, oddly, are a pair that the vast majority of teams would have no interest in as starting wide receivers – Cole Beasley and Mike Wallace. Only four others have scored on at least half of their targets in that part of the field – Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham and Randall Cobb.
Note: there’s an “EZ” column. It shows combined touchdowns and 2-point conversions (EZ = end zone).
| INSIDE THE 10 RECEIVING SINCE 2014 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | Pct | EZ | Pct |
| Cole Beasley, Dall. | 20 | 15 | 75.0% | 12 | 60.0% |
| Mike Wallace, 3 tms | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 11+1 | 57.1% |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 11 | 55.0% |
| Allen Robinson, Jac. | 30 | 17 | 56.7% | 14+2 | 53.3% |
| Odell Beckham, NYG | 32 | 17 | 53.1% | 16 | 50.0% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 40 | 26 | 65.0% | 18+2 | 50.0% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 29 | 15 | 51.7% | 13+1 | 48.3% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Cin.-Atl. | 23 | 14 | 60.9% | 9+2 | 47.8% |
| Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 41 | 28 | 68.3% | 17+2 | 46.3% |
| Michael Crabtree, S.F.-Oak. | 35 | 18 | 51.4% | 13+3 | 45.7% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 13+3 | 45.7% |
| Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 41 | 25 | 61.0% | 18 | 43.9% |
| Golden Tate, Det. | 26 | 20 | 76.9% | 10+1 | 42.3% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 57 | 32 | 56.1% | 20+4 | 42.1% |
| Alshon Jeffery, Chi.-Phi. | 39 | 17 | 43.6% | 13+3 | 41.0% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 26 | 12 | 46.2% | 10 | 38.5% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 26 | 15 | 57.7% | 9+1 | 38.5% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 32 | 18 | 56.3% | 10+2 | 37.5% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 34 | 22 | 64.7% | 11+1 | 35.3% |
| Allen Hurns, Jac. | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | 7 | 35.0% |
| Brandon LaFell, N.E.-Cin. | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | 8 | 34.8% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 35 | 19 | 54.3% | 11+1 | 34.3% |
| Eric Decker, NYJ-Ten. | 33 | 18 | 54.5% | 11 | 33.3% |
| Andre Johnson, 3 tms | 21 | 10 | 47.6% | 7 | 33.3% |
| Brandon Marshall, 3 tms | 28 | 12 | 42.9% | 9 | 32.1% |
| Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 7 | 31.8% |
| Dez Bryant, Dall. | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 11 | 30.6% |
| Marvin Jones, Cin.-Det. | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 6 | 28.6% |
| Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 49 | 20 | 40.8% | 12+2 | 28.6% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 25 | 12 | 48.0% | 6+1 | 28.0% |
| Pierre Garcon, Was.-S.F. | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 6 | 25.0% |
| Terrance Williams, Dall. | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 5 | 25.0% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 21 | 10 | 47.6% | 5 | 23.8% |
| Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 3+2 | 22.7% |
| Anquan Boldin, S.F.-Det. | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 5 | 21.7% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 8 | 21.6% |
| Jermaine Kearse, Sea.-NYJ | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 3 | 12.5% |
—Ian Allan