Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it time to panic on Christian McCaffrey? And Chris Carson? And Derrick Henry? Is Dante Pettis a sneaky sleeper? And what is the long-term prognosis for Anthony Miller?
Question 1
You've always steered me in the right direction for my draft but I think you may have screwed the pooch this year on Christian McCaffrey. He was high enough overall that I passed on the likes of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. I know it's just one game but nothing looks like it's changed from last year. Not enough touches, not enough creativity getting him the ball, too many Cam keepers and now C.J. Anderson out of nowhere. I won't even mention the unknown dude that scored their rushing TD. Very concerned my man. What gives? Besides Norv Turner being a flat-out liar.
CHRISTOPHER TONELLA (Saint Louis, MO)
McCaffrey looks good to me. I think he’s going to get a lot of carries, and I think he’s going to catch 80-plus passes. He might finish in the top half dozen among running backs in total yards. My main concern is the offensive line. Looks like they’re going to have to play the first half of the season without either of their offensive tackles, and that will be a problem in some games. In the opener, my biggest surprise was how much they used Newton as a runner. I have been waiting for them to dial back how much he runs with the ball, saving him from in injury. Instead, it looks like they’re going to crank up that part of their offense. Eventually this might result in an injury that turns that derails that entire offense. For now, however, I think it will help to open everything up. Defenses will have to respect Newton’s ability to keep it, and that should open up running lanes for McCaffrey and Anderson.
Question 2
I was impressed with Dante Pettis' performance at Minnesota. Do you think he's worth picking up?
Daniel Goodlett (Bonita, CA)
Marquise Goodwin left the Vikings game with a quad injury. That put Pettis on the field more, and he had a couple of big catches – the touchdown, and a 39-yard reception. If Goodwin doesn’t play on Sunday against the Lions, I think we can start wondering if Pettis has another good game in him. The 49ers should win that game pretty easily. Goodwin didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so I suppose it’s possible – we’ll check his status when they release the injury report later today. For the time being, I think Pettis is the 4th receiver. Goodwin and Pierre Garcon as their starters, and I think they’re locked in on Trent Taylor as their slot receiver. Taylor has caught 21 passes in the six games Garoppolo has started. So I think we’ll see Pettis rotate in some. It’s possible he’ll take on a larger role later in the year. Maybe there’s an injury, or maybe they sour on Garcon, who’s big, tough and experienced but is just awfully slow – he’s 32 but looks older.
Question 3
I bought the pre-season hype on John Brown and drafted him as my WR4. Your final cheat sheet before opening day had him listed 36th among WR/TE in the TD-only rankings. He then goes out and catches a few balls, scores a TD, generally looks good, so you'd think he'd rise a little in the rankings, but yet in the current re-drafter, he actually falls 12 notches down to 48th. So I have to ask: Is there something else you saw or have heard that has lowered your opinion on him, or is it simply a matter of your opinion having changed (in a positive manner) on a lot of players you originally ranked behind him?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
I wasn’t crazy about that offense in Week 1. That might sound weird, with them having won 47-3, but to me it looked like the same constipated offense we’ve been watching there the last few years. Joe Flacco is healthier and playing better, but he’s still cut from the same cloth. Too many of the passes are short and underneath – not really doing any damage. In the first half of the Buffalo game, he went 13 of 17 throwing to backs and tight ends. And I don’t like the way they’re mixing in Lamar Jackson for a play on most series. I wonder if that will disrupt the rhythm of the offense and piss off Flacco.
As for Brown, he caught a touchdown in that game, but they were using a lot of guys. Plenty of completions to backs and a host of tight ends, and two other wide receivers factored prominently in the game plan – not only Michael Crabtree but also Willie Snead. Brown finished with 4 targets, two fewer than four other players on the team. The one time they looked to him deep, he was open but had to stand and wait for the ball. He didn’t look like a go-to guy. So when I re-worked the Baltimore projections early in the week, I left the team totals about the same but spread the numbers out more (reducing Brown and increasing other guys on the team). Now the Ravens have played another game (last night) and it looks like I should probably nudge Brown back some the other way. He’s definitely got the most speed and big-play ability on that offense. He caught another touchdown in Week 2 (on a pretty impressive contested catch) and had a deep reception. He also could have a short touchdown on a throw that was behind him. I don’t think of Brown as being a red-zone guy, but he caught the short touchdown against Buffalo and also had one at Indianapolis in the preseason. He’ll outperform Crabtree.
Question 4
My question is regarding Carson. You ranked him pretty high and after the first week it seems as if you've downgraded him quite a bit. Because of where he was ranked I did select him in one draft as an RB2 after picking 3 WR before him, and as a flex in another league. While he may not be a lineup breaker I do have a bit of reliance on him performing. Is it time to get rid of him?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I would stick with him. He’s been playing well – running hard. He was effective in the preseason, and he was good in their opener, averaging over 7 yards per carry. I was surprised in Week 1 when their first-round pick Rashaad Penny, got just as many carries, but Pete Carroll concedes that was a mistake. Carson is playing well enough that he should be getting more carries, Carroll says. I expect that’s the direction they’ll go. They’re at Chicago this week, however, and as well as that defense played in Week 1, I woudn’t be excited about using Carson as a starter this week.
Question 5
Saying goodbye to Derrick Henry ... too soon?
TROY SIRIKING (Sunland, CA)
Yes. Round One to Dion Lewis, but it’s a long season. I expect Henry will have plenty of good games. He’ll lead that team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Lewis will be more effective catching passes. Mostly they need to get the offense dialed in. Henry isn’t quick, but when he builds up a head of steam, he’s a freight train runner. Still a candidate for 1,000 yards, I think. With the Titans, I am far more concerned about Marcus Mariota than Henry.
Question 6
Full PPR, can keep one drafted player after 5th round, picked up Anthony Miller in round 17. Is he worth keeping as a possible player in 2019 or drop him and pick up Ryan Grant for this year? Or since I have Michael Thomas, Sanders, Stills, Goodwin, John Brown and Crowder, should I drop one of those and pick up Grant?
JOHN LESJACK (Freedom, PA)
It’s early, but to me, Miller looks like a keeper. I think he’ll develop into a viable player. So you might want to keep him around for the 2019 season. I think I might be willing to cut Crowder loose. Decent enough player, but I don’t think Washington is interested in getting the ball to its wide receivers. I realize we’re only one game in, but to me, it looks like those receivers are going to be window dressing in a lot of weeks – not just Crowder but also Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson. What they want to do there is run the ball with Adrian Peterson and mix in underneath passes to Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. I expect Thompson and Reed will both catch more passes than any of the wide receivers. I suppose Crowder will finish the year with about 50 catches and 3 TDs, but I don’t know when you would ever use him.
Question 7
Who is Gurley's back up going to be? Drafted Kelly and surprised to see him inactive Monday. Is Brown the guy going forward?
DERIC TREON (Orangevale, CA)
Right now, today, Malcolm Brown seems to be their backup. He was active on Monday night; Kelly was not. At the team’s official website, Brown is listed as the backup; Kelly is 4th string (behind Justin Davis). But things can change as we go along, of course. I thought Kelly was better than both of those backs in the preseason. They might have had Kelly inactive on Monday night because he’s not as valuable on special teams. It won’t be until Todd Gurley sits out a game that we truly know what the Rams would do at the position. It could be Brown, Davis, Kelly or some combination of the three. It could be somebody sitting on their bed who weighs 400 pounds.
Question 8
I have James Conner in all three of my leagues. Would you look to swing a trade for Bell in the next few weeks? If so, what would that deal look like?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
Bell will show up. Definitely for the last six games. Maybe he shows up in September – it’s got to be killing him to be sitting on his couch right now. But we’ll see him at some point, and I assume he’s keeping himself in good shape. He showed up the week of the opener last year, and they put him right into the starting lineup – it took him a few weeks to round into top form, but he wasn’t out of shape. This time when he reports, I expect he’ll share time with Conner initially. They’d probably both get series at first, and then they’d go from there – if one back were more effective, his workload would increase. For fantasy purposes, Conner is better right now. Bell should be better in the second half of the season. And it makes sense for these two backs to be on the same roster. If you’ve got Conner, you should be looking to either add Bell (providing a bridge for November/December) or you should be looking to collect compensation for sending Conner to the franchise with Bell. The owner with Conner has more leverage – because of the value of having to win games right now. The owner taking on both halves of this backfield has to worry about whether there might be a transitional period when Bell returns where neither back is getting enough touches to be counted on for reliable production.
Question 9
What is with these Tampa Bay QB projections? I think there's something off. The No. 1 QB ranked is Aaron Rodgers in all formats, he's the only GB QB listed. You have him projected for 319 points. Jameis Winston is #15 at 247 points, Ryan Fitzpatrick is 36th at 73 points. Combined, that comes out to 320. Was I supposed to just not draft a QB until these guys the last two rounds of the draft, and secretly have the #1 QB? Or is there some kind of adjustment needing to be made?
Maresh Ilander ()
Observant of you to notice this. I don’t want the players to appear in the order of their total points. Winston is suspended until Week 4 (and on a short week, they might not bring him back until after their Week 5 bye). So if we go strictly by cumulative points, he would appear lower than full-season quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. But if I were walking into a draft, I would select Winston before those guys. I think that once he’s back and dialed in, he could be very good and help me win some games. So I sneak in some extra stats to make Winston move up to where my gut tells me where he should be. These are stats that you can’t see -- they’re “behind the curtain” – but they’re there. If you want to compare guys apples to apples, open the stat download file (from the “Your Stuff” area). There are three tabs in that sheet. You can look either at the per-game numbers for each player, or you can look at the 16-game totals for each player (which show how I think a player would perform if he were starting all 16 games). That will give you a better gauge of how the Bucs and Packers compare.
Question 10
They keep showing that "Eagle Eagle" play from week one where Foles catches the pass. I don't understand why every other forward lateral play is considered a pass completion and that one is not whistled down for being two (one more than allowed) forward passes. Someone is ruling on whether or not the ball was "in the air"?
Martin Donnelly (Elmhurst, IL)
I went back and gave it a look. Nick Foles definitely hands the ball off to Corey Clement. That’s a handoff. Then Clement flips it backwards to Nelson Agholor. So I don’t see there being any potential for a double-pass controversy.