Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Mulling the swirling values of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston. Can Carson Wentz be immediately used as a fantasy starter? Is Marlon Mack doomed to be locked in a committee? And have we seen the last good ball out of Tyler Eifert?
Question 1
In a league where you have to drop a QB to pick up a QB (and you have to carry 2 QBs) I have Luck and Winston. Is it worth dropping Winston to get Fitz and ride the hot hand?
PHIL SCARCELLA (Palm Coast, FL)
I expect Winston will wind up starting, but I can’t guarantee that. I expect Fitzpatrick will play well enough Monday night that the Bucs will stick with him in Week 4 at Chicago. I don’t think they’d try to put in Winston on a short week against that defense (and how could they, with Fitzpatrick playing well?). Then they’ve got a bye, and I expect Winston will be their quarterback when they return for Week 6. That’s how I expect it will play out, but it’s tied to how well Fitzpatrick plays against the Bears – if he plays well again in that one, I don’t think they can sit him down). With the Bucs’ passing game looking really good, I suppose you could toy around with the idea of using your two spots on Fitzpatrick and Winston until you’re confident you’ve got the right guy. That strategy, unfortunately, would involve exposing yourself to the risk of losing Luck, who’s definitely a roster-worthy option. And if you go that route, you’d be back into the corner of having to start a quarterback at Chicago in Week 4, and then having both quarterbacks on a bye in Week 5. So more realistically, you keep Luck and get to have only one Buc poker in the fire. I would probably go with Luck-Winston. I would also consider, however, going with Luck-Fitzpatrick. That would allow you to use Fitzpatrick this week (I think he’ll be better than Luck), while still leaving open the possibility of re-obtaining Winston later.
Question 2
How confident would you be using Wentz this week? I will bench him for Wilson but might start him over guys like Luck (at Philly) and Dalton. They seem a little thin at WR but he can get it done with the TEs and Clement, I think.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
My preference would be to let Wentz sit for a week. I don’t it’s realistic to expect him to step in and rip it up from the git-go. They’ve got some receiver issues, with Jeffery and Mike Wallace out. Darren Sproles and Jay Ajayi might be out. They just brought in Kamar Aiken off the street to catch 5 passes last week. Now they’ve re-signed Jordan Matthews and cut DeAndre Carter (who was a starter for them in Week 1). Wentz averaged 23 rushing yards last year; that’s gone for the time being. He also last year was the king of patiently holding tough in the pocket, taking extra hits while waiting for receivers to get open – creating big plays. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to play that way anytime soon. He might be a little gun shy, and I don’t think the Eagles want him doing that. To me, he looks like a middle-of-the-pack quarterback this week. That is, you rank the starters 1 thru 32, he’s pretty close to the middle.
I see you being in a tough spot, however, because I’m not confident any of the other guys you’re talking about are top-10 guys either. Seahawks have looked pretty awful thus far, with Wilson sacked 12 times. They’re at home this week, but they’re playing against another really good pass rush. Luck and Dalton are both playing on the road against really good opponents. With both of those quarterbacks, at least, they’re playing against defenses that tend to be really strong against the run (forcing opponents to pass more).
Question 3
On your recent re-drafter, you have Jameis Winston as the 11th QB overall (ahead of guys like Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz). But then in the verbiage you state that you think it not far-fetched that Winston has lost his starting job. Additionally, you ranked Ryan Fitzpatrick as your #33 overall QB in the redrafter. Really? You would rather have Jameis Winston than Carson Wentz? And you'd rather have Josh Allen (#31 QB on the redrafter) than Ryan Fitzpatrick? As Ricky Ricardo once said, "You got some 'splaning' to do!".
David Krug (Overland Park, KS)
A fair point. I have considerable interest in Tampa Bay’s quarterback. Back in the magazine, recall, I had Winston ranked 3rd. Then the league suspended him for three games, blowing that to hell. Since that time, I’ve been jimmy-rigging the numbers behind the curtain, trying to get Winston to show up where I want him to be – trying to find the right balance of a player not appearing in the first three weeks but later perhaps being a top-5 quarterback. But I haven’t done a good enough job of applying the same logic to Fitzpatrick. I have fallen into the trap of tending to have the first 32 quarterbacks on the board being the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick logically needs to be ahead of a bunch those guys. In most fantasy leagues, it would make sense to select both Winston and Fitzpatrick before any quarterbacks on teams like the Cardinals, Bills, Bears, Jets and Titans. It can vary based on scoring system. (In a 12-team league with two starting quarterbacks, players like Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Alex Smith and Mitchell Trubisky hold more value – there’s value in simply having quarterbacks who’ll be on the field). But your point is well taken. I will take a close look at the Winston/Fitzpatrick rankings for the next ReDrafter. I might put them both in the top 20.
Question 4
I drafted Marlon Mack last year in a keeper league as a 10th round pick. I kept him on my roster continuously, which is a league requirement to be eligible as a keeper. I retained him this year by expending a 10th-round pick. I breathed a huge sigh of relief when Indy ditched Frank "Old Man" Gore. Now Mack is sharing a three-way committee? Seriously? Should I just drop him and go for a better free agent when the opportunity arises? Or is there some reason I shouldn't give up on him?
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
He’s worth a roster spot, but I’m not opposed to cutting him loose if somebody more promising shows up on the waiver wire. Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines were underwhelming in the preseason (hardly even playing with the first-unit offense) but they look serviceable to me. Wilkins is similar to Mack, while Hines is more of a smaller, quicker third-down option. I don’t envision the Colts switching gears and trying to turn Mack into more of a full-time back, feeding him 20 touches per game. I think this is a three-back committee, and we’re talking about a lesser team that will finish with bottom-10 rushing numbers. Mack is the best back there, but I don’t see him reliably putting up top-20 numbers anytime soon.
Question 5
How interested are you in Giovani Bernard for the next few weeks while Mixon is recovering from knee surgery?
Jason Brater (Ann Arbor, MI)
I don’t think he’ll be a big factor as a runner this week. Carolina is really tough against the run. But he could be a lot better in that regard in the following two weeks (especially if Mixon is still out in Week 5; Miami is the opponent that week and looked really soft against the run in the preseason). And Bernard should catch plenty of passes. Definitely this week (assuming the ground game is sputtering). In Week 4 they’re playing Atlanta, and the Falcons just lost their best coverage linebacker, Deion Jones. With Jones out, Christian McCaffrey (who’s a Bernard-type back) caught 14 passes on Sunday. Bernard is a smaller back, but as far as going out and playing in a featured role for a few weeks, I don’t think he’s much different than Mixon. Both backs are former second-round picks who can run and catch. Mixon has more size; Bernard has more experience.
Question 6
Is Tyler Eifert on a snap count the entire season or just at the beginning of the year? Everyone is ranking him as a high-end TE2, but I can't buy into it for a TD-dependent start. It seems the high rankings are more of brand equity vs. how Marvin Lewis is using him currently. Cut bait on Eifert or wait it out hoping his snap count increases?
Cody Hager (Portland, OR)
With Eifert, you’re playing for his ability in the red zone. He’s not going to catch a ton of balls, but he had caught 18 touchdowns in his last 22 games entering this year. He had an end zone target against the Ravens. But I don’t envision him catching 60-plus passes. I worry about whether he can hold up, and I wonder if he’s quite the same guy anymore (after all the injuries). Eifert was on the field for only 40 percent of their plays in Week 1. He moved up to 64 percent in Week 2, so perhaps there will be an increase as things go along. But if I owned Eifert, I think I prefer to see him continue to rotate with C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Kroft – many of the plays that he’s skipping, he’d presumably be utilized more as a blocker. All three of these tight ends have caught passes in both games.
Question 7
I am in a 10-team ppr league. A team just dropped LeVeon Bell out of frustration. I have the first pick on waivers. My first impulse was that it was a no-brainer to take him. The more I think about, however, it may not be a great idea.
John Crossett ()
I would select Bell. At worst, he’ll show up and play in the final six games. More likely, he’ll wind up playing a lot more than that. He’s losing over $850,000 per week by not playing, which must be bugging him. Or maybe there’s a trade with another team. If the Steelers get comfortable with James Conner, they might be glad to pick up a third- or fourth-round pick for a player they’re going to lose anyway in the offseason.
Question 8
I have Rodgers and Mahomes, am I crazy to trade Rodgers? Can maybe get Antonio Brown?
William Stoud (Medford, NJ)
Sounds good to me. If we were re-drafting today, Brown would be selected before Rodgers in every league. And in your particular case, you’ve already got the quarterback position sewn up.
Question 9
What happened to George Kittle in your rankings this week? Last week TE4; this week TE14.
Dan Shipley (Black Diamond, WA)
I thought Kittle looked great in the opener – 5 catches for 90 yards at Minnesota, and I thought we were looking at the next big thing. So very disappointing when he caught only 2 passes against the Lions, with their other tight end scoring a touchdown. Their passing numbers were down in part because they were able to run successfully, but I expected a lot more. So I dialed him back some. But I think he’s worth a gamble start this week. They’re on the road at Kansas City on Sunday, and there should be plenty of offense in that game.
Question 10
What are your thoughts on the jet sweep being considered a pass (and often times, a touchdown pass)? QBs such as Patrick Mahomes are racking up fantasy points on handoffs essentially. Do you think the NFL will be examining what constitutes a throw especially now that the jet sweep seems to be gaining popularity across the league?
Pat Lynch (Charlestown, MA)
There have been a few of them. Mahomes had a pair in his opener. Tom Brady has picked up a few of these touchdowns in recent years – I remember Brandin Cooks scoring one. But I don’t think it’s a significant issue or anything that’s going to change. For me, my pet peeve (for stats) is sacks. For college football, a sack is considered a running play. If you have a quarterback who carries 5 times for 50 yards but also loses 50 yards on 5 sacks, he shows with 10 carries for zero yards. In the pros, the quarterback would show with 5 carries for 50 yards (with the 5 sacks for minus-50 yards filed elsewhere). I like the notation for the pro game better. With sacks, I don’t understand why more leagues don’t make an effort to include them in their scoring. We give quarterbacks points for yards and touchdowns and take away points for interceptions. Why not also take away points on sacks? It would seem reasonable to dock a quarterback a point every time he took a sack, as well as a point for every 10 yards lost.
Question 11
Long-time fan, Ian. Best fantasy football analysis by far. Went 16-0 in my work league last year thanks to you guys. Wondering, how the return of Carson Wentz will effect Nelson Agholor’s production? Also, would you keep Jameis Winston on your bench over guys like Fitzpatrick, Mack, or Peyton Barber, or a hot D/ST pickup?
James Crawford (Atlanta, GA)
If you went 16-0, we should all be taking advice from you. I think I’ve participated in 150-200 leagues over the years. I don’t think I’ve ever had one go undefeated or even one with just one loss. That’s hard to do. Congrats. I like Agholor. As poorly as he played early in his career in Philadelphia (where it looked like he might be a bust) they’ve got him dialed in now. They don’t have much else at wide receiver, so I think he’ll continue to be a featured part of their offense, with lots of games with 5-6 catches. Barber is way too talented, I think, to be sitting on the waiver wire. I still think he could be a top-20 back. With the way Tampa Bay’s offense is humming I would be nervous about leaving Winston or Fitzpatrick on the waiver wire. That team will pass for 280-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in most games. It would be ridiculous to see a quarterback like Rodgers, Brady or Rivers sitting on the waiver wire, and Tampa Bay’s passing offense is right up there with those guys. It’s just a question of who’s going to be throwing those balls. I expect Fitzpatrick to play well enough against Pittsburgh well enough that it will be difficult for Bucs to immediately plug Winston back into the starting lineup. The Week 4 game at Chicago looks pivotal. That’s a good defense. If it can make Fitzpatrick look bad, that would make it easier to plug Winston back into the starting lineup coming out of the Week 5 bye. I think there’s something to be said for carrying both of those quarterback – be sure you’re getting the Brady/Rivers type quarterbacking they’ll have most weeks.
Question 12
I have Conner and pondering whom to trade for Bell. I have Lynch, Peterson, J.White and Howard. I doubt Bell owner would let him go for anything less then Howard. Howard looks fairly dicey right now (with the lack of carries last week). Anyone else on my roster I would either not trade or very unlikely to be enough. Would you offer Howard for Bell?
MATT JACKSON (Norwalk, CT)
I think I’d rather have Howard. I realize he was underwhelming against Seattle, but I liked the way he was banging out yards at about 5 yards per clip in the opener against Green Bay. And Howard’s catching passes this year, which wasn’t the case in the past. I think he’s got plenty of good games left in him this year.
Question 13
I have QB issues in my 8-team league. I waited on QB and ended up with Luck and Garoppolo (we have to carry 2). You think I should just stream waiver wire weekly based on matchups or pickup the likes of Stafford, Fitzpatrick or Bortles and drop one of my guys?
Renee Harrison (Manchester, MO)
I wouldn’t drop Luck. The Colts can’t run the ball, so I think there will be plenty of games where you can count on him for a lot of yards and multiple touchdowns. Stafford and Garoppolo are also worthy of being on roster spots, but you have to account for how your league is structured. With eight teams each holding two quarterbacks, half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks are always sitting on the waiver wire, so it makes a lot of sense to be loose with that second roster spot. For Week 3, for example, I would prefer to use Fitzpatrick rather than either Luck or Garoppolo. Those guys are fine (Garoppolo has a nice matchup against Kansas City) but I think Fitzpatrick looks better.